Queens University Royals at Colorado State Rams: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 9:00 PM ETMoby Arena · at Colorado St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Queens University Royals and Colorado St
QUC	This season	CSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CSU 85–72 · win probability CSU 88%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CSU has more of the edges

QUC 1, CSU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CSUBig

CSU offense vs QUC defense

Offense 103rd of 366 against a defense 331st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: QUC plays 71.2 a game (65th fastest), CSU 64.4 (355th). Faster games mean more points

CSUBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: QUC 0%, CSU 67%. Transfers in: QUC 0, CSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

QUCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: QUC 14.8%, CSU 18.5%. Forced: QUC 15.1%, CSU 15.4%

CSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: QUC 35.4, CSU 39.4. Allowed: QUC 38.1, CSU 34.2

Context

Schedule so far

QUC has played the 194th-hardest schedule, CSU the 96th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CSUSmall

Three-pointers

QUC hits 35.7% and allows 36.5%; CSU hits 38.6% and allows 34.2%. Threes are 46.5% and 49.1% of their shots

CSUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: QUC 30.2%, CSU 30.0%. Defensive: QUC 66.4%, CSU 70.8%

CSUSmall

Home court

CSU at home. This season: CSU 0-0 at home, QUC 0-0 away

Even

QUC offense vs CSU defense

Offense 102nd of 366 against a defense 61st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: QUC 56.4 and allows 54.6; CSU 57.5 and allows 52.9

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CSU -13.2	—
Total	—	156.3	—
Projected score	—	QUC 71.6 · CSU 84.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CSU -7.7	—
1H total	73.0	—
1H projected score	QUC 32.7 · CSU 40.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
QUC LLWWL	15-19	44%	5-11	—
CSU WLLLL	18-15	55%	9-8	—

Venue/role: QUC away; CSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
QUC UUOOO	22-12	65%	20-14
CSU OOUUU	17-16	52%	20-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
QUC	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
CSU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Queens University Royals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	@ BAY	No recent meeting
Dec 14	@ SHU	W81–64WU

Colorado St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 11	vs WYO	W79–68WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Queens University Royals

34 games played

Straight up

20-14

59% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-12

65% overs · avg +6.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1459%

L L L W W L L W W L L L W W W W W W W L L L W W L W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1944%

L L W W L L W W W L L L L W W L W L W L L L W W L W L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

22-1265%

U O O U O O O O O O O U O O U U U O U U O U O U O O O O O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIN	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 8	@VILL	L 74-94	+17.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	@DUQ	L 81-87	+12.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	vsSHU	W 81-64	-5.5	W +11.5	165.5	U 145
Nov 20	vsUNCG	W 101-94	-7.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 195
Nov 23	@FUR	L 79-90	+8.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 28	@UVA	L 69-94	+25.5	W +0.5	160.5	O 163
Dec 3	vsGWEB	W 107-74	-14.5	W +18.5	161.5	O 181
Dec 12	vsSCST	W 102-78	-18.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 14	@WAKE	L 73-111	+18.5	L −19.5	165.5	O 184
Dec 16	@ARK	L 80-108	+23.5	L −4.5	169.5	O 188
Dec 29	@AUB	L 65-106	+25.5	L −15.5	171.5	U 171
Jan 1	vsEKU	W 91-89	-4.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsBELL	W 98-76	-7.5	W +14.5	169.5	O 174
Jan 8	@JAX	W 77-51	-4.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 128
Jan 10	@UNF	W 89-82	-11.5	L −4.5	173.5	U 171
Jan 15	@FGCU	W 85-74	+1.5	W +12.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 17	@STET	W 87-81	-10.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 168
Jan 21	vsUNA	W 87-62	-12.5	W +12.5	162.5	U 149
Jan 24	@WGA	L 66-74	-7.5	L −15.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 28	vsCARK	L 90-100	-5.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 190
Jan 31	@BELL	L 75-78	-5.5	L −8.5	163.5	U 153
Feb 5	vsJAX	W 93-84	-8.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 177
Feb 7	vsUNF	W 91-72	-15.5	W +3.5	178.5	U 163
Feb 11	vsAPSU	L 87-95	-2.5	L −10.5	161.5	O 182
Feb 14	vsLIP	W 87-81	-3.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 168
Feb 18	@UNA	W 85-78	-8.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 163
Feb 21	vsWGA	W 91-84	-11.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 175
Feb 25	@EKU	W 96-79	-2.5	W +14.5	165.5	O 175
Feb 28	@CARK	L 79-84	+2.5	L −2.5	163.5	U 163
Mar 6	vsWGA	W 71-63	-8.5	L −0.5	164.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsAPSU	W 90-83	+2.5	W +9.5	161.5	O 173
Mar 8	vsCARK	W 98-93	+1.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 191
Mar 20	vsPUR	L 71-104	+25.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−3.5

VILL

L 74-94

−2.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+6.5

SHU

W 81-64

+11.5

UNCG

W 101-94

−0.5

FUR

L 79-90

−2.5

UVA

L 69-94

+0.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+18.5

SCST

W 102-78

+5.5

WAKE

L 73-111

−19.5

ARK

L 80-108

−4.5

AUB

L 65-106

−15.5

EKU

W 91-89

−2.5

BELL

W 98-76

+14.5

JAX

W 77-51

+21.5

UNF

W 89-82

−4.5

FGCU

W 85-74

+12.5

STET

W 87-81

−4.5

UNA

W 87-62

+12.5

WGA

L 66-74

−15.5

CARK

L 90-100

−15.5

BELL

L 75-78

−8.5

JAX

W 93-84

+0.5

UNF

W 91-72

+3.5

APSU

L 87-95

−10.5

LIP

W 87-81

+2.5

UNA

W 85-78

−1.5

WGA

W 91-84

−4.5

EKU

W 96-79

+14.5

CARK

L 79-84

−2.5

WGA

W 71-63

−0.5

APSU

W 90-83

+9.5

CARK

W 98-93

+6.5

PUR

L 71-104

−7.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−8.5

VILL

L 74-94

+17.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+5.5

SHU

W 81-64

−20.5

UNCG

W 101-94

+44.5

FUR

L 79-90

+15.5

UVA

L 69-94

+2.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+19.5

SCST

W 102-78

+22.5

WAKE

L 73-111

+18.5

ARK

L 80-108

+18.5

AUB

L 65-106

−0.5

EKU

W 91-89

+15.5

BELL

W 98-76

+4.5

JAX

W 77-51

−26.5

UNF

W 89-82

−2.5

FGCU

W 85-74

−7.5

STET

W 87-81

+5.5

UNA

W 87-62

−13.5

WGA

L 66-74

−22.5

CARK

L 90-100

+31.5

BELL

L 75-78

−10.5

JAX

W 93-84

+30.5

UNF

W 91-72

−15.5

APSU

L 87-95

+20.5

LIP

W 87-81

+2.5

UNA

W 85-78

+6.5

WGA

W 91-84

+13.5

EKU

W 96-79

+9.5

CARK

L 79-84

−0.5

WGA

W 71-63

−30.5

APSU

W 90-83

+11.5

CARK

W 98-93

+33.5

PUR

L 71-104

+15.5

over 22under 12avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Colorado St

33 games played

Straight up

20-13

61% wins

Against the spread

18-15

55% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-16

52% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1361%

W W W W L L W W W W L L W L W L L W L L L W W W W W W W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1555%

W W L W L W W W W W L L W L W L L W W L L L W W W W L W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1652%

O O O U O U O U O U O U U O U O O U U U U U O O O O U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUIW	W 98-64	-10.5	W +23.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsOMA	W 97-74	-14.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 171
Nov 12	vsCP	W 93-79	-18.5	L −4.5	165.5	O 172
Nov 16	@LUC	W 80-67	-3.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 147
Nov 21	vsDEN	L 81-83	-18.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsVT	L 64-66	+4.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 130
Nov 27	vsWICH	W 76-70	-1.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsUSF	W 83-68	+2.5	W +17.5	155.5	U 151
Dec 6	vsCOLO	W 91-86	-1.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 177
Dec 9	vsDART	W 76-55	-20.5	W +0.5	153.5	U 131
Dec 20	@USU	L 58-100	+10.5	L −31.5	147.5	O 158
Dec 30	vsNEV	L 62-75	-1.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@GCU	W 70-60	+6.5	W +16.5	143.5	U 130
Jan 6	vsUNM	L 70-80	+1.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 9	vsUNLV	W 70-62	-6.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 132
Jan 13	@FRES	L 69-79	-3.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 148
Jan 16	@BOIS	L 73-79	+5.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 152
Jan 20	vsAF	W 81-52	-19.5	W +9.5	133.5	U 133
Jan 23	vsUSU	L 61-65	+5.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 126
Jan 28	@SDSU	L 50-73	+9.5	L −13.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 31	@WYO	L 57-68	+1.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsSJSU	W 65-57	-15.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 122
Feb 10	@AF	W 91-74	-16.5	W +0.5	137.5	O 165
Feb 14	vsWYO	W 79-68	-3.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 18	@UNLV	W 91-86	+2.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 177
Feb 21	vsSDSU	W 83-74	+3.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsFRES	W 74-70	-8.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 144
Feb 28	@SJSU	W 85-73	-4.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 158
Mar 4	@UNM	W 82-74	+8.5	W +16.5	150.5	O 156
Mar 7	vsBOIS	L 67-78	-1.5	L −12.5	143.5	O 145
Mar 11	vsFRES	W 67-63	-7.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 130
Mar 12	vsSDSU	L 62-71	+6.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 18	vsJOES	L 64-69	-5.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UIW

W 98-64

+23.5

OMA

W 97-74

+8.5

W 93-79

−4.5

LUC

W 80-67

+9.5

DEN

L 81-83

−20.5

L 64-66

+2.5

WICH

W 76-70

+4.5

USF

W 83-68

+17.5

COLO

W 91-86

+3.5

DART

W 76-55

+0.5

USU

L 58-100

−31.5

NEV

L 62-75

−14.5

GCU

W 70-60

+16.5

UNM

L 70-80

−8.5

UNLV

W 70-62

+1.5

FRES

L 69-79

−13.5

BOIS

L 73-79

−0.5

W 81-52

+9.5

USU

L 61-65

+1.5

SDSU

L 50-73

−13.5

WYO

L 57-68

−9.5

SJSU

W 65-57

−7.5

W 91-74

+0.5

WYO

W 79-68

+7.5

UNLV

W 91-86

+7.5

SDSU

W 83-74

+12.5

FRES

W 74-70

−4.5

SJSU

W 85-73

+7.5

UNM

W 82-74

+16.5

BOIS

L 67-78

−12.5

FRES

W 67-63

−3.5

SDSU

L 62-71

−2.5

JOES

L 64-69

−10.5

covered 18didn’t cover 15avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UIW

W 98-64

+14.5

OMA

W 97-74

+17.5

W 93-79

+6.5

LUC

W 80-67

−4.5

DEN

L 81-83

+14.5

L 64-66

−23.5

WICH

W 76-70

+3.5

USF

W 83-68

−4.5

COLO

W 91-86

+27.5

DART

W 76-55

−22.5

USU

L 58-100

+10.5

NEV

L 62-75

−2.5

GCU

W 70-60

−13.5

UNM

L 70-80

+6.5

UNLV

W 70-62

−19.5

FRES

L 69-79

+8.5

BOIS

L 73-79

+11.5

W 81-52

−0.5

USU

L 61-65

−23.5

SDSU

L 50-73

−16.5

WYO

L 57-68

−17.5

SJSU

W 65-57

−16.5

W 91-74

+27.5

WYO

W 79-68

+6.5

UNLV

W 91-86

+29.5

SDSU

W 83-74

+17.5

FRES

W 74-70

−5.5

SJSU

W 85-73

+6.5

UNM

W 82-74

+5.5

BOIS

L 67-78

+1.5

FRES

W 67-63

−16.5

SDSU

L 62-71

−9.5

JOES

L 64-69

−11.5

over 17under 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

QUC84.4 #16

CSU74.8 #169

Points per possession

QUC1.19 #25

CSU1.16 #44

Pace (possessions)

QUC71.2 #65

CSU64.4 #355

Shooting

Effective FG%

QUC56.4 #15

CSU57.5 #12

3-point %

QUC35.7 #74

CSU38.6 #9

3-point attempt rate

QUC46.5 #38

CSU49.1 #19

Free throw rate

QUC35.4 #167

CSU39.4 #69

Possessions

Turnover rate

QUC14.8 #54

CSU18.5 #298

Offensive rebound rate

QUC30.2 #190

CSU30.0 #198

Assists per game

QUC16.0 #49

CSU15.6 #62

Defense

Points allowed

QUC83.8 #355

CSU71.6 #95

Points allowed per possession

QUC1.17 #346

CSU1.11 #241

Opponent effective FG%

QUC54.6 #319

CSU52.9 #263

Opponent 3-point %

QUC36.5 #325

CSU34.2 #196

Turnovers forced

QUC15.1 #276

CSU15.4 #255

Defensive rebound rate

QUC66.4 #308

CSU70.8 #123

Steals per game

QUC6.0 #238

CSU5.2 #320

Blocks per game

QUC2.9 #236

CSU2.1 #338

QUC		CSU
Scoring
84.4 #16	Points per game	74.8 #169
1.19 #25	Points per possession	1.16 #44
71.2 #65	Pace (possessions)	64.4 #355
Shooting
56.4 #15	Effective FG%	57.5 #12
35.7 #74	3-point %	38.6 #9
46.5 #38	3-point attempt rate	49.1 #19
35.4 #167	Free throw rate	39.4 #69
Possessions
14.8 #54	Turnover rate	18.5 #298
30.2 #190	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #198
16.0 #49	Assists per game	15.6 #62
Defense
83.8 #355	Points allowed	71.6 #95
1.17 #346	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #241
54.6 #319	Opponent effective FG%	52.9 #263
36.5 #325	Opponent 3-point %	34.2 #196
15.1 #276	Turnovers forced	15.4 #255
66.4 #308	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #123
6.0 #238	Steals per game	5.2 #320
2.9 #236	Blocks per game	2.1 #338

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Queens University Royals

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Purdue71–104
Wvs C Arkansas98–93
Wvs Austin Peay90–83
Wvs West Georgia71–63
L@ C Arkansas79–84

A week or more of rest.

Colorado St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Saint Joseph's64–69
Lvs San Diego St62–71
Wvs Fresno St67–63
Lvs Boise St67–78
W@ New Mexico82–74

A week or more of rest.

Queens University Royals at Colorado State Rams

What could decide it: CSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Queens University Royals

Colorado St

Matchup stats

Queens University Royals

Colorado St