1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. NDSU @ IDHO
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

North Dakota State Bison at Idaho Vandals

ICCU Arena · at Idaho
#213NDSUN Dakota St
@
#247IDHOIdaho
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NDSUThis seasonIDHO
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IDHO 74–73 · win probability IDHO 53%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NDSU has more of the edges

NDSU 5, IDHO 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NDSUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NDSU 15.6%, IDHO 15.0%. Forced: NDSU 18.7%, IDHO 15.0%
NDSUSmall
Three-pointers
NDSU hits 35.4% and allows 33.9%; IDHO hits 34.1% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 42.8% and 47.0% of their shots
NDSUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NDSU 32.9%, IDHO 28.4%. Defensive: NDSU 74.5%, IDHO 75.8%
NDSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NDSU 30.6, IDHO 34.6. Allowed: NDSU 29.2, IDHO 38.5
Context
Schedule so far
NDSU has played the 315th-hardest schedule, IDHO the 262nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
IDHOSmall
Home court
IDHO at home. This season: IDHO 0-0 at home, NDSU 0-0 away
NDSUSmall
IDHO offense vs NDSU defense
Offense 253rd of 366 against a defense 209th, on the model’s ratings
Even
NDSU offense vs IDHO defense
Offense 212th of 366 against a defense 233rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: NDSU plays 69.2 a game (169th fastest), IDHO 69.4 (153rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NDSU 25%, IDHO 23%. Transfers in: NDSU 4, IDHO 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NDSU 53.2 and allows 52.0; IDHO 51.4 and allows 50.5
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—IDHO -0.8—
Total—146.8—
Projected score—NDSU 73 · IDHO 73.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadIDHO -0.3—
1H total68.7—
1H projected scoreNDSU 34.2 · IDHO 34.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

N Dakota St has the better starters

Position by position: N Dakota St 1, Idaho 0, even 4
N Dakota StBetterIdaho
G M. Bell TR8.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 19
No call
G K. Gonzalez18 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
G A. Stefonowicz9.3 pts · 3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 42
No call
G R. Lafferty TR0.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked
G R. Diaz TR8.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79
NDSUBig
G M. Klapper2.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 35
G C. Smith2.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F H. Ward TR5 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 35
F K. Poom TR8.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 31
Even
F S. Joba4.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 25
N Dakota StBetterIdaho
NDSU offense212th of 366 · -6.5
Even
IDHO defense233rd of 366 · -6.2
NDSU defense209th of 366 · -5.3
Even
IDHO offense253rd of 366 · -7.6
Backcourt-4.6 · 4 players
IDHOSmall
Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-1.9 · 2 players
Bench-1.0 · 2 players
Even
Bench-0.2 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestNDSU betterIDHO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Dakota St
Guards
M. Bell34 min · TRA. Stefonowicz33 minR. Diaz22 min · TRC. Smith9 minR. Massey8 minJ. Robison2 min · TR
Forwards
K. Poom20 min · TRA. NagyNewK. TateNewC. SchoenfeldNewO. JunkerNewC. StackNew
Idaho
Guards
K. Gonzalez18 minR. Lafferty13 min · TRM. Klapper12 minK. Wynott10 min · TRB. KennisonNewT. WalNew
Forwards
H. Ward19 min · TRS. Joba17 minD. Trejo-DelgadoNewM. DiaoNewW. JensonNewN. Newman-GomezNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NDSUIDHO
Scoring
78.7 #87Points per game75.8 #147
1.14 #76Points per possession1.10 #145
69.2 #169Pace (possessions)69.4 #153
Shooting
53.2 #92Effective FG%51.4 #177
35.4 #933-point %34.1 #168
42.8 #1223-point attempt rate47.0 #34
30.6 #289Free throw rate34.6 #193
Possessions
15.6 #108Turnover rate15.0 #69
32.9 #89Offensive rebound rate28.4 #250
14.8 #97Assists per game11.4 #313
Defense
71.4 #90Points allowed74.1 #157
1.03 #63Points allowed per possession1.06 #112
52.0 #215Opponent effective FG%50.5 #128
33.9 #173Opponent 3-point %35.2 #264
18.7 #62Turnovers forced15.0 #288
74.5 #15Defensive rebound rate75.8 #5
7.7 #64Steals per game5.6 #282
2.8 #265Blocks per game2.4 #319
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Dakota St

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan St67–92
  • Wvs North Dakota70–62
  • Wvs Omaha74–50
  • Wvs Oral Roberts76–65
  • Wvs North Dakota96–63

A week or more of rest.

Idaho

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Houston47–78
  • Wvs Montana77–66
  • Wvs E Washington81–68
  • Wvs Montana St78–74
  • Wvs Sacramento St68–45

A week or more of rest.