1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. OAK @ ARK
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

Oakland Golden Grizzlies at Arkansas Razorbacks

Bud Walton Arena · at Arkansas
#204OAKOakland
@
#18ARKArkansas AP #12
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
OAKThis seasonARK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARK 96–69 · win probability ARK 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 164.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARK has more of the edges

OAK 1, ARK 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARKBig
ARK offense vs OAK defense
Offense 6th of 366 against a defense 266th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
OAK has played the 150th-hardest schedule, ARK the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ARKBig
Three-pointers
OAK hits 34.7% and allows 34.3%; ARK hits 38.2% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 34.0% and 33.0% of their shots
ARKBig
OAK offense vs ARK defense
Offense 159th of 366 against a defense 47th, on the model’s ratings
ARKBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: OAK 52.7 and allows 54.7; ARK 56.4 and allows 51.8
ARKSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OAK 31.3%, ARK 32.0%. Defensive: OAK 65.6%, ARK 69.1%
OAKSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: OAK 38.1, ARK 35.9. Allowed: OAK 24.6, ARK 31.2
ARKSmall
Home court
ARK at home. This season: ARK 0-0 at home, OAK 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OAK 14.7%, ARK 12.2%. Forced: OAK 15.1%, ARK 15.5%
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: OAK plays 71.1 a game (67th fastest), ARK 73.8 (12th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OAK 20%, ARK 19%. Transfers in: OAK 5, ARK 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARK -27.2—
Total—164.5—
Projected score—OAK 68.7 · ARK 95.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARK -16.0—
1H total76.8—
1H projected scoreOAK 30.4 · ARK 46.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arkansas has the better starters

Position by position: Oakland 0, Arkansas 2, even 3
OaklandBetterArkansas
G N. Mashhour9 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 22
ARKBig
G B. Richmond11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 2 ast Score 85
G B. Swartz TR7.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 41
ARKBig
G J. Wilkinson TR17.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 98
F B. El Shakery TR11.2 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 59
No call
G A. Brown0.1 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
F C. Fields TR9.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 79
Even
F C. Bowser TR13.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 91
F J. Hill TR7 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16
No call
F I. Sealy2.9 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
OaklandBetterArkansas
OAK offense159th of 366 · -4.8
ARKSmall
ARK defense47th of 366 · +2.2
OAK defense266th of 366 · -6.8
ARKBig
ARK offense6th of 366 · +10.8
Backcourt-3.2 · 2 players
ARKBig
Backcourt+5.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players
ARKBig
Frontcourt+3.7 · 2 players
Bench-1.7 · 2 players
ARKSmall
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestOAK betterARK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Oakland
Guards
N. Mashhour28 minB. Swartz21 min · TRW. Marshall12 minR. Taylor11 min · TRW. KassiNewH. MashhourNew
Forwards
B. El Shakery27 min · TRC. Fields18 min · TRJ. Hill17 min · TRN. AhnerNewC. ThompsonNewI. TheodileNew
Arkansas
Guards
B. Richmond28 minJ. Wilkinson26 min · TRA. Brown2 minA. Kelley2 minJ. SmithNewD. ThompsonNew
Forwards
C. Bowser30 min · TRI. Sealy7 minP. SemedoNewM. MakerNewJ. AndrewsNewM. MuurinenNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
OAKARK
Scoring
81.6 #37Points per game90.2 #2
1.14 #66Points per possession1.23 #3
71.1 #67Pace (possessions)73.8 #12
Shooting
52.7 #114Effective FG%56.4 #16
34.7 #1313-point %38.2 #16
34.0 #2943-point attempt rate33.0 #315
38.1 #100Free throw rate35.9 #155
Possessions
14.7 #47Turnover rate12.2 #1
31.3 #152Offensive rebound rate32.0 #121
15.7 #60Assists per game17.2 #20
Defense
82.8 #344Points allowed81.0 #333
1.17 #340Points allowed per possession1.09 #213
54.7 #322Opponent effective FG%51.8 #201
34.3 #206Opponent 3-point %31.8 #54
15.1 #275Turnovers forced15.5 #246
65.6 #324Defensive rebound rate69.1 #197
7.2 #106Steals per game7.3 #96
3.7 #110Blocks per game5.2 #12
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oakland

15-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Kentucky84–85
  • Lvs Detroit Mercy89–95
  • W@ IU Indy86–74
  • Wvs Milwaukee81–70
  • Lvs Green Bay68–73

A week or more of rest.

Arkansas

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona88–109
  • Wvs High Point94–88
  • Wvs Hawai'i97–78
  • Wvs Vanderbilt86–75
  • Wvs Ole Miss93–90

A week or more of rest.