1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. UGA vs DUKE
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

Georgia Bulldogs vs Duke Blue Devils

Madison Square Garden · Neutral site
#34UGAGeorgia
vs
#3DUKEDuke AP #2
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UGAThis seasonDUKE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DUKE 86–72 · win probability DUKE 88%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 158.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DUKE has more of the edges

UGA 1, DUKE 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DUKEBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UGA 34.9%, DUKE 38.4%. Defensive: UGA 65.1%, DUKE 74.8%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: UGA plays 74.7 a game (8th fastest), DUKE 66.8 (285th). Faster games mean more points
DUKESmall
Three-pointers
UGA hits 33.8% and allows 33.6%; DUKE hits 34.7% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 44.3% and 43.5% of their shots
DUKESmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UGA 54.2 and allows 50.6; DUKE 56.6 and allows 46.2
UGASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UGA 14.3%, DUKE 16.0%. Forced: UGA 18.4%, DUKE 17.2%
DUKESmall
DUKE offense vs UGA defense
Offense 11th of 366 against a defense 75th, on the model’s ratings
DUKESmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UGA 36.9, DUKE 38.2. Allowed: UGA 30.2, DUKE 22.8
Context
Schedule so far
UGA has played the 52nd-hardest schedule, DUKE the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
UGA offense vs DUKE defense
Offense 19th of 366 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UGA 46%, DUKE 47%. Transfers in: UGA 4, DUKE 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DUKE -13.7—
Total—158.4—
Projected score—UGA 72.3 · DUKE 86

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDUKE -8.0—
1H total74.0—
1H projected scoreUGA 33 · DUKE 41—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Georgia has the better starters

Position by position: Georgia 2, Duke 0, even 3
GeorgiaBetterDuke
G B. Cain13.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 95
Even
G J. Blackwell TR19.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 97
G F. Dilione V TR14 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 93
UGASmall
G C. Foster8.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 76
G M. Millender12 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.1 ast Score 89
Even
G J. Theodosiou TR12.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86
F K. Catchings11.6 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
Even
G C. Boozer7.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 3 ast Score 85
F J. Scott TR3.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
UGASmall
F D. Sarr6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 52
GeorgiaBetterDuke
UGA offense19th of 366 · +7.8
Even
DUKE defense3rd of 366 · +11.4
UGA defense75th of 366 · +0.7
DUKESmall
DUKE offense11th of 366 · +10.1
Backcourt+8.6 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt+9.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+2.4 · 2 players
UGASmall
Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
DUKEBig
Bench+7.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestUGA betterDUKE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Georgia
Guards
B. Cain28 minF. Dilione V28 min · TRM. Millender26 minB. Klatsky2 minM. Jennings1 minK. MillenderNew
Forwards
K. Catchings23 minJ. Scott18 min · TRB. Dunlap17 min · TRK. Stagg13 minA. Osasuyi12 min · TRM. KuanyNew
Duke
Guards
J. Blackwell34 min · TRC. Foster25 minJ. Theodosiou23 min · TRC. Boozer23 minB. DavisNewD. RippeyNew
Forwards
D. Sarr24 minD. Scharnowski22 min · TRS. WilkinsNewC. WilliamsNew
Centers
P. Ngongba22 minM. MeyerNewJ. Boumtje BoumtjeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UGADUKE
Scoring
89.4 #3Points per game81.6 #36
1.19 #18Points per possession1.23 #4
74.7 #8Pace (possessions)66.8 #285
Shooting
54.2 #61Effective FG%56.6 #13
33.8 #1853-point %34.7 #133
44.3 #833-point attempt rate43.5 #100
36.9 #131Free throw rate38.2 #97
Possessions
14.3 #31Turnover rate16.0 #139
34.9 #49Offensive rebound rate38.4 #4
14.8 #102Assists per game16.7 #32
Defense
79.8 #314Points allowed63.6 #3
1.07 #135Points allowed per possession0.95 #2
50.6 #134Opponent effective FG%46.2 #13
33.6 #165Opponent 3-point %30.6 #27
18.4 #82Turnovers forced17.2 #133
65.1 #336Defensive rebound rate74.8 #10
8.4 #21Steals per game7.4 #92
6.0 #3Blocks per game3.4 #164
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Georgia

22-11 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Saint Louis77–102
  • Lvs Ole Miss72–76
  • W@ Mississippi St102–96
  • Wvs Alabama98–88
  • Wvs South Carolina87–68

A week or more of rest.

Duke

35-3 in 2025-26 overall · 20-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn72–73
  • Wvs St John's80–75
  • Wvs TCU81–58
  • Wvs Siena71–65
  • Wvs Virginia74–70

A week or more of rest.