1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. UTSA @ SMU
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

UTSA Roadrunners at SMU Mustangs

Moody Coliseum (Dallas) · at SMU
#192UTSAUTSA
@
#55SMUSMU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UTSAThis seasonSMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMU 88–67 · win probability SMU 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 155.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMU has more of the edges

UTSA 0, SMU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SMUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTSA 44.8 and allows 53.3; SMU 55.6 and allows 51.6
SMUBig
Three-pointers
UTSA hits 29.2% and allows 35.1%; SMU hits 37.1% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 41.3% and 35.9% of their shots
SMUBig
SMU offense vs UTSA defense
Offense 45th of 366 against a defense 238th, on the model’s ratings
SMUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTSA 30.2%, SMU 35.4%. Defensive: UTSA 61.3%, SMU 68.4%
SMUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTSA 17.4%, SMU 15.8%. Forced: UTSA 14.7%, SMU 16.8%
SMUSmall
UTSA offense vs SMU defense
Offense 155th of 366 against a defense 69th, on the model’s ratings
SMUSmall
Home court
SMU at home. This season: SMU 0-0 at home, UTSA 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UTSA plays 69.6 a game (142nd fastest), SMU 71.1 (68th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
UTSA has played the 104th-hardest schedule, SMU the 70th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTSA 29.5, SMU 30.4. Allowed: UTSA 33.3, SMU 32.1
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTSA 15%, SMU 20%. Transfers in: UTSA 9, SMU 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SMU -21.3—
Total—155.2—
Projected score—UTSA 67 · SMU 88.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSMU -12.5—
1H total72.5—
1H projected scoreUTSA 30 · SMU 42.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

SMU has the better starters

Position by position: UTSA 0, SMU 4, even 1
UTSABetterSMU
G D. Hayes8.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 16
SMUBig
G R. Brumbaugh TR19.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 95
G J. Kelly TR8.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 44
SMUBig
G D. Terrell TR13.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.9 ast Score 89
G D. Williams TR10 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 72
Even
G O. Sellers TR10.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 78
G P. Turner TR7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 31
SMUSmall
G J. Patrick TR7.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 59
G I. Coleman TR6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50
SMUSmall
F J. Munch TR7.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 69
UTSABetterSMU
UTSA offense155th of 366 · -4.7
SMUSmall
SMU defense69th of 366 · +0.8
UTSA defense238th of 366 · -6.2
SMUBig
SMU offense45th of 366 · +4.2
Backcourt-5.4 · 5 players
SMUBig
Backcourt+8.2 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+0.7 · 1 player
Bench-3.5 · 5 players
SMUBig
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUTSA betterSMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UTSA
Guards
D. Hayes31 minJ. Kelly27 min · TRD. Williams22 min · TRP. Turner20 min · TRI. Coleman19 min · TRS. Eberwein19 min · TR
Forwards
A. Smith5 min · TRC. OkpukparaNewM. BroxtonNewJ. PetersonNewK. TaylorNew
SMU
Guards
R. Brumbaugh36 min · TRD. Terrell33 min · TRO. Sellers29 min · TRJ. Patrick20 min · TRN. Kalischer-Stork1 minG. NormandNew
Forwards
J. Munch21 min · TRJ. Toombs20 minJ. Stewart16 min · TRN. Codie16 min · TRJ. O'Neal15 minN. Walls3 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UTSASMU
Scoring
67.3 #329Points per game84.1 #19
0.96 #348Points per possession1.19 #26
69.6 #142Pace (possessions)71.1 #68
Shooting
44.8 #360Effective FG%55.6 #27
29.2 #3513-point %37.1 #27
41.3 #1433-point attempt rate35.9 #252
29.5 #320Free throw rate30.4 #301
Possessions
17.4 #231Turnover rate15.8 #119
30.2 #191Offensive rebound rate35.4 #37
10.1 #357Assists per game16.9 #27
Defense
82.9 #345Points allowed77.9 #265
1.20 #356Points allowed per possession1.09 #199
53.3 #277Opponent effective FG%51.6 #189
35.1 #251Opponent 3-point %34.1 #188
14.7 #309Turnovers forced16.8 #171
61.3 #363Defensive rebound rate68.4 #237
6.3 #203Steals per game7.0 #129
4.3 #52Blocks per game3.6 #132
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UTSA

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 1-17 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Rice71–80
  • Lvs Wichita St67–84
  • Lvs East Carolina81–82
  • L@ Tulsa74–100
  • Lvs FAU52–60

A week or more of rest.

SMU

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami OH79–89
  • Lvs Louisville58–62
  • Wvs Syracuse86–69
  • L@ Florida St78–91
  • Lvs Miami69–77

A week or more of rest.