1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. ALST @ TCU
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

Alabama State Hornets at TCU Horned Frogs

Schollmaier Arena · at TCU
#302ALSTAlabama St
@
#40TCUTCU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ALSTThis seasonTCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TCU 90–61 · win probability TCU 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 150.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TCU has more of the edges

ALST 0, TCU 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
ALST has played the 333rd-hardest schedule, TCU the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TCUBig
TCU offense vs ALST defense
Offense 48th of 366 against a defense 330th, on the model’s ratings
TCUBig
ALST offense vs TCU defense
Offense 269th of 366 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
TCUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ALST 34.9, TCU 37.5. Allowed: ALST 42.3, TCU 30.4
TCUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ALST 18.3%, TCU 15.3%. Forced: ALST 18.7%, TCU 19.5%
TCUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ALST 31.9%, TCU 34.0%. Defensive: ALST 68.5%, TCU 70.9%
TCUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ALST 47.1 and allows 52.2; TCU 50.4 and allows 51.2
TCUSmall
Three-pointers
ALST hits 31.8% and allows 34.2%; TCU hits 33.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 38.5% and 36.8% of their shots
TCUSmall
Home court
TCU at home. This season: TCU 0-0 at home, ALST 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ALST 32%, TCU 52%. Transfers in: ALST 3, TCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: ALST plays 71.3 a game (59th fastest), TCU 70.2 (108th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TCU -28.9—
Total—150.2—
Projected score—ALST 60.6 · TCU 89.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTCU -17.1—
1H total70.2—
1H projected scoreALST 26.6 · TCU 43.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

TCU has the better starters

Position by position: Alabama St 0, TCU 3, even 2
Alabama StBetterTCU
G M. James TR21 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 77
Even
G G. Sykes TR19.7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89
G A. Brown13.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 46
TCUSmall
G B. Harding8 pts · 2.9 reb · 5.6 ast Score 67
G T. Miller7 pts · 1 reb · 3 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Robinson10.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 85
F J. Walker4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 19
TCUBig
G T. Toolson7.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 75
F J. Scott TR3.7 pts · 3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 33
TCUBig
F X. Edmonds12.7 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 98
Alabama StBetterTCU
ALST offense269th of 366 · -8.2
TCUBig
TCU defense27th of 366 · +3.9
ALST defense330th of 366 · -8.6
TCUBig
TCU offense48th of 366 · +3.8
Backcourt-1.0 · 3 players
TCUBig
Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
TCUBig
Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
TCUSmall
Bench+1.6 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestALST betterTCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Alabama St
Guards
M. James37 min · TRA. Brown26 minT. Miller22 minD. BondsNewP. McMillanNewJ. RogersNew
Forwards
J. Walker16 minJ. Scott12 min · TRI. Barganier1 min · TRP. MensahNewM. DixonNewT. HamptonNew
TCU
Guards
G. Sykes34 min · TRB. Harding32 minM. Robinson27 minT. Toolson21 minD. McElroy1 minG. MurphyNew
Forwards
X. Edmonds23 minD. Thomas17 min · TRL. Bamgboye17 min · TRR. HuntNewS. FlemingNewM. SojicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ALSTTCU
Scoring
71.5 #260Points per game77.4 #109
1.01 #318Points per possession1.10 #127
71.3 #59Pace (possessions)70.2 #108
Shooting
47.1 #335Effective FG%50.4 #221
31.8 #2883-point %33.2 #220
38.5 #2003-point attempt rate36.8 #233
34.9 #185Free throw rate37.5 #112
Possessions
18.3 #289Turnover rate15.3 #90
31.9 #128Offensive rebound rate34.0 #67
11.7 #303Assists per game15.4 #71
Defense
77.6 #256Points allowed72.1 #107
1.09 #185Points allowed per possession1.02 #50
52.2 #222Opponent effective FG%51.2 #172
34.2 #194Opponent 3-point %33.5 #158
18.7 #63Turnovers forced19.5 #33
68.5 #230Defensive rebound rate70.9 #112
7.9 #50Steals per game7.7 #61
3.8 #102Blocks per game4.5 #39
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alabama St

9-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Alcorn St65–77
  • Lvs Grambling63–65
  • Lvs Southern64–71
  • W@ Alabama A&M89–88
  • L@ Florida A&M63–76

A week or more of rest.

TCU

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke58–81
  • Wvs Ohio State66–64
  • Lvs Kansas73–78
  • Wvs Oklahoma St95–88
  • Wvs Cincinnati73–63

A week or more of rest.