1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Dec 13
  3. ALST @ AUB
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 13

Alabama State Hornets at Auburn Tigers

Neville Arena · at Auburn
#302ALSTAlabama St
@
#21AUBAuburn
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ALSTThis seasonAUB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AUB 95–63 · win probability AUB 100%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 157.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AUB has more of the edges

ALST 0, AUB 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
ALST has played the 333rd-hardest schedule, AUB the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less
AUBBig
AUB offense vs ALST defense
Offense 16th of 366 against a defense 330th, on the model’s ratings
AUBBig
ALST offense vs AUB defense
Offense 269th of 366 against a defense 41st, on the model’s ratings
AUBBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ALST 34.9, AUB 43.2. Allowed: ALST 42.3, AUB 34.3
AUBSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ALST 47.1 and allows 52.2; AUB 53.0 and allows 53.7
AUBSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ALST 31.9%, AUB 37.0%. Defensive: ALST 68.5%, AUB 69.1%
AUBSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ALST 18.3%, AUB 14.6%. Forced: ALST 18.7%, AUB 16.3%
AUBSmall
Home court
AUB at home. This season: AUB 0-0 at home, ALST 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: ALST plays 71.3 a game (59th fastest), AUB 69.7 (136th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ALST 32%, AUB 38%. Transfers in: ALST 3, AUB 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
ALST hits 31.8% and allows 34.2%; AUB hits 34.4% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 38.5% and 40.2% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—AUB -32.1—
Total—157.3—
Projected score—ALST 62.6 · AUB 94.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadAUB -18.9—
1H total73.5—
1H projected scoreALST 27.3 · AUB 46.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Auburn has the better starters

Position by position: Alabama St 0, Auburn 3, even 2
Alabama StBetterAuburn
G M. James TR21 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 77
Even
G T. Pettiford15.4 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 88
G A. Brown13.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 46
AUBBig
G K. Overton14.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 90
G T. Miller7 pts · 1 reb · 3 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. King TR7.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 83
F J. Walker4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 19
AUBBig
F T. Dowd TR14.5 pts · 10.3 reb · 2 ast Score 83
F J. Scott TR3.7 pts · 3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 33
AUBSmall
F A. Olsen TR17 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 66
Alabama StBetterAuburn
ALST offense269th of 366 · -8.2
AUBBig
AUB defense41st of 366 · +2.8
ALST defense330th of 366 · -8.6
AUBBig
AUB offense16th of 366 · +8.7
Backcourt-1.0 · 3 players
AUBBig
Backcourt+6.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
AUBBig
Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
AUBBig
Bench+3.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestALST betterAUB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Alabama St
Guards
M. James37 min · TRA. Brown26 minT. Miller22 minD. BondsNewP. McMillanNewJ. RogersNew
Forwards
J. Walker16 minJ. Scott12 min · TRI. Barganier1 min · TRP. MensahNewM. DixonNewT. HamptonNew
Auburn
Guards
T. Pettiford32 minK. Overton32 minK. King19 min · TRB. Muschalek6 minS. Walker5 minD. Cardwell1 min
Forwards
T. Dowd37 min · TRA. Olsen37 min · TRO. Freeman12 min · TRJ. BowmanNew
Centers
B. Oboye18 min · TRN. NgoyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ALSTAUB
Scoring
71.5 #260Points per game83.0 #27
1.01 #318Points per possession1.19 #19
71.3 #59Pace (possessions)69.7 #136
Shooting
47.1 #335Effective FG%53.0 #104
31.8 #2883-point %34.4 #147
38.5 #2003-point attempt rate40.2 #166
34.9 #185Free throw rate43.2 #19
Possessions
18.3 #289Turnover rate14.6 #45
31.9 #128Offensive rebound rate37.0 #15
11.7 #303Assists per game13.2 #198
Defense
77.6 #256Points allowed78.8 #287
1.09 #185Points allowed per possession1.13 #281
52.2 #222Opponent effective FG%53.7 #291
34.2 #194Opponent 3-point %36.7 #336
18.7 #63Turnovers forced16.3 #201
68.5 #230Defensive rebound rate69.1 #196
7.9 #50Steals per game7.5 #83
3.8 #102Blocks per game4.1 #63
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alabama St

9-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Alcorn St65–77
  • Lvs Grambling63–65
  • Lvs Southern64–71
  • W@ Alabama A&M89–88
  • L@ Florida A&M63–76

A week or more of rest.

Auburn

22-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs Tulsa92–86
  • Wvs Illinois St88–66
  • Wvs Nevada75–69
  • Wvs Seattle U91–85
  • Wvs South Alabama78–67

A week or more of rest.