1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Dec 13
  3. LSU vs HOU
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 13

LSU Tigers vs Houston Cougars

Toyota Center (Houston) · Neutral site
#51LSULSU
vs
#2HOUHouston AP #10
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LSUThis seasonHOU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 84–67 · win probability HOU 94%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 150.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

LSU 1, HOU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
HOUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LSU 15.5%, HOU 12.8%. Forced: LSU 14.0%, HOU 20.7%
LSUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: LSU 40.9, HOU 26.3. Allowed: LSU 37.8, HOU 38.7
HOUBig
Three-pointers
LSU hits 33.1% and allows 35.4%; HOU hits 34.7% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 34.5% and 40.7% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: LSU plays 70.5 a game (95th fastest), HOU 65.0 (346th). Faster games mean more points
HOUSmall
HOU offense vs LSU defense
Offense 10th of 366 against a defense 77th, on the model’s ratings
HOUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LSU 33.1%, HOU 35.7%. Defensive: LSU 68.3%, HOU 69.7%
HOUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: LSU 52.8 and allows 50.9; HOU 51.9 and allows 46.2
HOUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LSU 0%, HOU 26%. Transfers in: LSU 6, HOU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
LSU offense vs HOU defense
Offense 37th of 366 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
LSU has played the 49th-hardest schedule, HOU the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—HOU -17.6—
Total—150.8—
Projected score—LSU 66.6 · HOU 84.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadHOU -10.4—
1H total70.5—
1H projected scoreLSU 30.1 · HOU 40.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Houston has the better starters

Position by position: LSU 0, Houston 1, even 4
LSUBetterHouston
G D. Dent TR13.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 7.6 ast Score 95
Even
G C. Hadnot TR20.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.6 ast Score 95
G A. Nunez TR9.6 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 17
HOUBig
G D. Thomas TR15.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 6.5 ast Score 99
G S. Clark TR11.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 2 ast Score 87
Even
F D. Gillespie TR17.9 pts · 11.4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 94
G A. Bashir TR13.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 92
Even
F B. East TR12.8 pts · 9.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 92
F M. Dioubate TR8.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 94
Even
F J. Tugler8.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 96
LSUBetterHouston
LSU offense37th of 366 · +5.0
Even
HOU defense1st of 366 · +13.2
LSU defense77th of 366 · +0.5
HOUSmall
HOU offense10th of 366 · +10.1
Backcourt+5.8 · 4 players
HOUBig
Backcourt+10.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+3.1 · 1 player
HOUBig
Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players
Bench+0.4 · 1 player
HOUBig
Bench+3.6 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestLSU betterHOU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
LSU
Guards
D. Dent34 min · TRA. Nunez29 min · TRS. Clark29 min · TRA. Bashir25 min · TRD. Ugochukwu16 min · TRL. StansburyNew
Forwards
M. Dioubate22 min · TRS. NiangNewJ. BenderNew
Centers
B. DessertNewG. LevyNewS. PearsonNewM. RuzicNew
Houston
Guards
C. Hadnot35 min · TRD. Thomas29 min · TRC. Weaver21 min · TRM. Miller12 minK. Jefferson4 minB. JacksonNew
Forwards
D. Gillespie33 min · TRB. East24 min · TRJ. Tugler24 minC. McCarty12 min
Centers
A. DianeNewD. SilimanaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LSUHOU
Scoring
81.4 #41Points per game76.9 #119
1.15 #60Points per possession1.18 #36
70.5 #95Pace (possessions)65.0 #346
Shooting
52.8 #111Effective FG%51.9 #150
33.1 #2253-point %34.7 #134
34.5 #2863-point attempt rate40.7 #153
40.9 #49Free throw rate26.3 #355
Possessions
15.5 #106Turnover rate12.8 #3
33.1 #87Offensive rebound rate35.7 #32
14.7 #106Assists per game14.6 #111
Defense
78.5 #279Points allowed62.3 #1
1.12 #270Points allowed per possession0.96 #5
50.9 #150Opponent effective FG%46.2 #12
35.4 #271Opponent 3-point %31.6 #49
14.0 #335Turnovers forced20.7 #14
68.3 #239Defensive rebound rate69.7 #173
6.0 #240Steals per game7.5 #75
3.9 #87Blocks per game3.8 #96
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

LSU

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kentucky82–87
  • Lvs Texas A&M91–94
  • L@ Auburn74–88
  • Lvs Oklahoma67–83
  • W@ Ole Miss106–99

A week or more of rest.

Houston

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois55–65
  • Wvs Texas A&M88–57
  • Wvs Idaho78–47
  • Lvs Arizona74–79
  • Wvs Kansas69–47

A week or more of rest.