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NCAAB · Sun, Dec 13

Lipscomb Bisons at Eastern Kentucky Colonels

Baptist Health Arena · at E Kentucky
#214LIPLipscomb
@
#294EKUE Kentucky
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LIPThis seasonEKU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LIP 78–75 · win probability LIP 59%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 152.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LIP has more of the edges

LIP 5, EKU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
LIPBig
LIP offense vs EKU defense
Offense 191st of 366 against a defense 340th, on the model’s ratings
LIPBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LIP 16.0%, EKU 16.9%. Forced: LIP 17.7%, EKU 14.8%
LIPSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: LIP 26.0, EKU 30.7. Allowed: LIP 29.0, EKU 38.5
EKUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LIP 25.8%, EKU 32.5%. Defensive: LIP 69.8%, EKU 68.3%
LIPSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: LIP 54.1 and allows 53.2; EKU 52.1 and allows 56.1
LIPSmall
Three-pointers
LIP hits 35.7% and allows 34.3%; EKU hits 35.0% and allows 36.2%. Threes are 47.9% and 50.8% of their shots
EKUSmall
Home court
EKU at home. This season: EKU 0-0 at home, LIP 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LIP 44%, EKU 29%. Transfers in: LIP 2, EKU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: LIP plays 70.8 a game (83rd fastest), EKU 69.8 (128th). Faster games mean more points
Even
EKU offense vs LIP defense
Offense 244th of 366 against a defense 226th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
LIP has played the 267th-hardest schedule, EKU the 273rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LIP -2.6—
Total—152.8—
Projected score—LIP 77.7 · EKU 75.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLIP -1.7—
1H total71.4—
1H projected scoreLIP 36.6 · EKU 34.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Lipscomb 1, E Kentucky 1, even 3
LipscombBetterE Kentucky
G T. Simpkins TR12.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79
LIPBig
G J. Holt7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 38
G M. Esmeraldo9.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 6.9 ast Score 81
No call
G D. King TR2.3 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
F T. Sargiunas9.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 28
Even
F S. Lasu TR5.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 15
F O. Ashkenazi2.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 3
EKUSmall
F A. Ball7.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 20
F T. Byrne TR3.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 4
Even
F Y. Paul4.2 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 12
LipscombBetterE Kentucky
LIP offense191st of 366 · -5.9
LIPBig
EKU defense340th of 366 · -9.1
LIP defense226th of 366 · -6.0
Even
EKU offense244th of 366 · -7.4
Backcourt+3.0 · 2 players
LIPBig
Backcourt-1.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt-6.7 · 3 players
EKUSmall
Frontcourt-5.3 · 3 players
Bench-1.1 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.4 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestLIP betterEKU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Lipscomb
Guards
T. Simpkins32 min · TRM. Esmeraldo31 minZ. WellsNewV. VisnjicNewH. TidareNewK. QuinnNew
Forwards
T. Sargiunas24 minO. Ashkenazi20 minT. Byrne16 min · TRK. Okpara13 minL. JackNewD. MartinNew
E Kentucky
Guards
J. Holt20 minD. King8 min · TRO. Hamama7 min · TRM. Miles1 minJ. McCarterNewD. VasserNew
Forwards
S. Lasu23 min · TRA. Ball20 minY. Paul17 minD. DujmovicNewJ. LoweNewM. CamaraNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LIPEKU
Scoring
77.6 #104Points per game77.5 #107
1.10 #142Points per possession1.11 #123
70.8 #83Pace (possessions)69.8 #128
Shooting
54.1 #67Effective FG%52.1 #141
35.7 #753-point %35.0 #111
47.9 #243-point attempt rate50.8 #10
26.0 #357Free throw rate30.7 #286
Possessions
16.0 #142Turnover rate16.9 #194
25.8 #327Offensive rebound rate32.5 #106
17.2 #19Assists per game14.1 #139
Defense
77.0 #242Points allowed83.1 #346
1.09 #187Points allowed per possession1.19 #354
53.2 #273Opponent effective FG%56.1 #346
34.3 #207Opponent 3-point %36.2 #312
17.7 #113Turnovers forced14.8 #304
69.8 #171Defensive rebound rate68.3 #241
6.8 #141Steals per game6.1 #228
2.6 #291Blocks per game2.9 #245
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lipscomb

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs FGCU53–77
  • W@ E Kentucky80–77
  • L@ West Georgia78–84
  • Wvs North Alabama73–51
  • W@ Bellarmine75–72

A week or more of rest.

E Kentucky

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Stetson76–92
  • Lvs Lipscomb77–80
  • Lvs Queens University Royals79–96
  • W@ Bellarmine95–92
  • Wvs West Georgia81–80

A week or more of rest.