Lipscomb Bisons at Southeast Missouri State Redhawks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 3:00 PM ETShow Me Center · at SE Missouri

#214LIPLipscomb88▲ winner

Final

Closing lineSEMO -3.5✓ LIP covered by 14.5

Closing total153.5Over by 11.5

Season records: Lipscomb and SE Missouri
LIP	This season	SEMO
2-4	Record	1-5
4-2	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LIP 75–76 SEMO · ✗ SEMO (53%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LIP	38	50	88
SEMO	30	47	77

1st half: LIP 38, SEMO 30 (LIP by 8). The model had SEMO by 0.3 and a total of 70.9 (actual 68).

Team stats

LIP		SEMO
29-58 50%	Field goals	25-61 41%
11-25 44%	3-pointers	4-18 22%
19-26 73%	Free throws	23-30 77%
32 6 off	Rebounds	39 12 off
20	Assists	8
8	Steals	2
2	Blocks	1
16	Turnovers	17
22	Fouls	23
36	Points in paint	32
19	Fast-break points	4

Players

LIP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mateo Esmeraldo G	38	22	4	5	7-12	1-3
Grant Asman F	33	3	11	7	0-5	0-3
Or Ashkenazi F	20	6	2	2	2-5	2-3
Charlie Williams C	18	12	3	2	5-12	2-5
Titas Sargiunas F	18	9	2	2	3-5	1-2
Bench
Ethan Duncan G	24	14	2	0	6-9	2-5
Kellan Boylan F	20	6	4	2	2-2	0-0
Kennedy Okpara F	15	11	3	0	3-4	3-3
Cole Middleton F	14	5	1	0	1-4	0-1

Did not play: Josh Scott, Devyn Martin, Luke Jack, Logan Suber, Ross Candelino, Luke Carter, Miles White

SEMO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braxton Stacker G	38	24	6	4	6-13	3-8
BJ Ward G	31	19	1	2	7-15	1-2
Brendan Terry F	24	10	10	0	5-11	0-0
Luke Almodovar G	23	3	4	0	1-7	0-5
Landren Blocker G	11	2	0	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Marqueas Bell G	25	9	9	1	4-7	0-0
Troy Cole Jr. G	21	4	1	0	2-5	0-2
David Idada C	13	6	4	0	0-1	0-0
PJ Farmer G	6	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Blaize Sagna G	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Elliot Lowndes F	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jay Reynolds, Trace Sadler, Saxton Hoepker

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SEMO -3.5	SEMO -0.8	LIP +2.7	W LIP covered
Total	153.5	151.5	Under 2.0	L Over
Projected score	—	LIP 75.4 · SEMO 76.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SEMO -0.3	LIP -8.0
1H total	70.9	68
1H projected score	LIP 35.3 · SEMO 35.6	LIP 38 · SEMO 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIP LWWWW	4-2	67%	3-2	3-2
SEMO WLLWL	2-4	33%	0-1	1-0

Venue/role: LIP away, as underdog; SEMO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIP OUUUU	2-4	33%	2-4
SEMO OOOUU	4-2	67%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIPlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
SEMOlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LIP 1–0 SEMOLIP leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LIP 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 5, 2024-25	SEMO 60 @ LIP 78	LIP -16.5	LIP W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lipscomb

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@VAN	L 61-105	+26.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 166
Nov 9	@MER	L 77-92	+3.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 11	@UNCA	L 64-69	+6.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 19	@BEL	L 68-75	+12.5	W +5.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 22	vsWCU	W 83-62	-5.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 26	@MRSH	W 90-67	+7.5	W +30.5	157.5	U 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAN

L 61-105

−17.5

MER

L 77-92

−11.5

UNCA

L 64-69

+1.5

BEL

L 68-75

+5.5

WCU

W 83-62

+15.5

MRSH

W 90-67

+30.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAN

L 61-105

+11.5

MER

L 77-92

+11.5

UNCA

L 64-69

−25.5

BEL

L 68-75

−15.5

WCU

W 83-62

−6.5

MRSH

W 90-67

−0.5

over 2under 4avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

SE Missouri

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SLU	L 67-92	+19.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 7	@MIZ	L 84-89	+25.5	W +20.5	157.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsSTMN	L 72-84	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 18	@IOWA	L 70-99	+23.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 169
Nov 25	vsCP	W 84-68	-1.5	W +14.5	170.5	U 152
Nov 26	@NAU	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

−5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+20.5

STMN

L 72-84

−9.5

IOWA

L 70-99

−5.5

W 84-68

+14.5

NAU

L 72-79

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

+5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+15.5

STMN

L 72-84

+3.5

IOWA

L 70-99

+21.5

W 84-68

−18.5

NAU

L 72-79

−2.5

over 4under 2avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lipscomb @ SE Missouri

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Lipscomb

SE Missouri

Lipscomb

SE Missouri