1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. CLEM @ TCU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Clemson Tigers at TCU Horned Frogs

Schollmaier Arena · at TCU
#35CLEMClemson
@
#40TCUTCU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CLEMThis seasonTCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TCU 74–73 · win probability TCU 55%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TCU has more of the edges

CLEM 2, TCU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: CLEM plays 65.6 a game (326th fastest), TCU 70.2 (108th). Faster games mean more points
CLEMSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CLEM 52.5 and allows 48.8; TCU 50.4 and allows 51.2
CLEMSmall
Three-pointers
CLEM hits 34.1% and allows 32.4%; TCU hits 33.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 43.1% and 36.8% of their shots
TCUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CLEM 28.1%, TCU 34.0%. Defensive: CLEM 73.7%, TCU 70.9%
TCUSmall
Home court
TCU at home. This season: TCU 0-0 at home, CLEM 0-0 away
TCUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CLEM 36.7, TCU 37.5. Allowed: CLEM 33.9, TCU 30.4
Context
Schedule so far
CLEM has played the 66th-hardest schedule, TCU the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CLEM 37%, TCU 52%. Transfers in: CLEM 4, TCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
CLEM offense vs TCU defense
Offense 51st of 366 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
Even
TCU offense vs CLEM defense
Offense 48th of 366 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CLEM 14.0%, TCU 15.3%. Forced: CLEM 17.4%, TCU 19.5%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TCU -1.4—
Total—146.9—
Projected score—CLEM 72.8 · TCU 74.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTCU -0.7—
1H total68.7—
1H projected scoreCLEM 34 · TCU 34.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Clemson has the better starters

Position by position: Clemson 1, TCU 0, even 4
ClemsonBetterTCU
G C. Certa TR12.8 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 83
Even
G G. Sykes TR19.7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89
F D. Faulkner TR17.3 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 99
CLEMSmall
G B. Harding8 pts · 2.9 reb · 5.6 ast Score 67
F D. Fuchs TR13 pts · 7.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 95
Even
G M. Robinson10.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 85
F L. Lelevicius TR8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 72
Even
G T. Toolson7.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 75
F C. Welling10.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 97
Even
F X. Edmonds12.7 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 98
ClemsonBetterTCU
CLEM offense51st of 366 · +3.6
Even
TCU defense27th of 366 · +3.9
CLEM defense25th of 366 · +4.8
Even
TCU offense48th of 366 · +3.8
Backcourt+1.5 · 1 player
TCUBig
Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt+14.4 · 4 players
CLEMBig
Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player
Bench+2.5 · 5 players
Even
Bench+1.6 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestCLEM betterTCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Clemson
Guards
C. Certa27 min · TRA. Buckner20 minZ. Foster19 minH. ReynoldsNewA. JamesNew
Forwards
D. Faulkner27 min · TRD. Fuchs24 min · TRL. Lelevicius24 min · TRC. Welling21 minC. Thompson9 minD. Thomas4 min
Centers
W. StevensNew
TCU
Guards
G. Sykes34 min · TRB. Harding32 minM. Robinson27 minT. Toolson21 minD. McElroy1 minG. MurphyNew
Forwards
X. Edmonds23 minD. Thomas17 min · TRL. Bamgboye17 min · TRR. HuntNewS. FlemingNewM. SojicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CLEMTCU
Scoring
73.8 #209Points per game77.4 #109
1.12 #95Points per possession1.10 #127
65.6 #326Pace (possessions)70.2 #108
Shooting
52.5 #126Effective FG%50.4 #221
34.1 #1653-point %33.2 #220
43.1 #1153-point attempt rate36.8 #233
36.7 #136Free throw rate37.5 #112
Possessions
14.0 #24Turnover rate15.3 #90
28.1 #264Offensive rebound rate34.0 #67
12.7 #233Assists per game15.4 #71
Defense
66.7 #21Points allowed72.1 #107
1.02 #41Points allowed per possession1.02 #50
48.8 #59Opponent effective FG%51.2 #172
32.4 #88Opponent 3-point %33.5 #158
17.4 #124Turnovers forced19.5 #33
73.7 #21Defensive rebound rate70.9 #112
6.3 #209Steals per game7.7 #61
2.8 #260Blocks per game4.5 #39
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clemson

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa61–67
  • Lvs Duke61–73
  • Wvs North Carolina80–79
  • Wvs Wake Forest71–62
  • Wvs Georgia Tech79–76

A week or more of rest.

TCU

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke58–81
  • Wvs Ohio State66–64
  • Lvs Kansas73–78
  • Wvs Oklahoma St95–88
  • Wvs Cincinnati73–63

A week or more of rest.