1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. MOST @ TAR
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Missouri State Bears at Tarleton State Texans

ECCU Center · at Tarleton St
#251MOSTMissouri St
@
#185TARTarleton St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MOSTThis seasonTAR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TAR 76–70 · win probability TAR 69%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MOST 2, TAR 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MOST plays 67.4 a game (261st fastest), TAR 71.2 (64th). Faster games mean more points
MOSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MOST 51.1 and allows 52.0; TAR 48.3 and allows 53.6
TARSmall
MOST offense vs TAR defense
Offense 275th of 366 against a defense 186th, on the model’s ratings
TARSmall
Home court
TAR at home. This season: TAR 0-0 at home, MOST 0-0 away
MOSTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MOST 32.0%, TAR 31.5%. Defensive: MOST 68.0%, TAR 64.9%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MOST 43.8, TAR 41.9. Allowed: MOST 40.2, TAR 47.7
Context
Schedule so far
MOST has played the 180th-hardest schedule, TAR the 212th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
MOST hits 33.0% and allows 34.4%; TAR hits 32.5% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 41.3% and 24.2% of their shots
Even
TAR offense vs MOST defense
Offense 200th of 366 against a defense 219th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MOST 16.7%, TAR 19.9%. Forced: MOST 16.9%, TAR 23.5%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MOST 25%, TAR 23%. Transfers in: MOST 0, TAR 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TAR -5.8—
Total—146.3—
Projected score—MOST 70.2 · TAR 76.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTAR -3.3—
1H total68.4—
1H projected scoreMOST 32.5 · TAR 35.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Tarleton St has the better starters

Position by position: Missouri St 0, Tarleton St 2, even 3
Missouri StBetterTarleton St
G T. Williams9.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 3.2 ast Score 34
TARSmall
G C. Blackwell TR10.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 52
G M. Cunningham3.1 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43
Even
G F. Emmou TR7.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 36
F C. Boone1.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 19
TARSmall
G L. Kelly5.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 41
F M. Gray NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G T. Cope TR8.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 47
F C. Thompson NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F I. Harrell TR7.8 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 23
Missouri StBetterTarleton St
MOST offense275th of 366 · -8.4
TARSmall
TAR defense186th of 366 · -4.3
MOST defense219th of 366 · -5.7
Even
TAR offense200th of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players
MOSTSmall
Backcourt-3.3 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players
MOSTSmall
Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMOST betterTAR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Missouri St
Guards
T. Williams31 minM. Cunningham12 minK. StubblefieldNewJ. BlairNewD. RoweNew
Forwards
C. Boone8 minM. GrayNewC. ThompsonNewN. RueyNewL. RolleNewI. MedinaNew
Centers
A. AcimovicNew
Tarleton St
Guards
C. Blackwell31 min · TRF. Emmou23 min · TRL. Kelly21 minT. Cope21 min · TRK. Douglas16 minJ. Martinez2 min
Forwards
I. Harrell26 min · TRJ. Daniel19 min · TRJ. Hayes13 min · TRJ. Mani12 min · TRM. Vrabel7 minE. CarterNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MOSTTAR
Scoring
73.1 #223Points per game72.5 #231
1.09 #169Points per possession1.01 #309
67.4 #261Pace (possessions)71.2 #64
Shooting
51.1 #191Effective FG%48.3 #306
33.0 #2363-point %32.5 #256
41.3 #1443-point attempt rate24.2 #365
43.8 #12Free throw rate41.9 #33
Possessions
16.7 #180Turnover rate19.9 #348
32.0 #124Offensive rebound rate31.5 #141
13.9 #155Assists per game10.5 #349
Defense
74.3 #166Points allowed75.8 #211
1.10 #222Points allowed per possession1.07 #130
52.0 #217Opponent effective FG%53.6 #285
34.4 #209Opponent 3-point %34.9 #244
16.9 #158Turnovers forced23.5 #2
68.0 #261Defensive rebound rate64.9 #340
6.7 #152Steals per game9.7 #3
3.0 #215Blocks per game3.1 #206
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Missouri St

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisiana Tech66–69
  • Wvs Liberty77–69
  • Wvs FIU75–72
  • Lvs MTSU63–75
  • Wvs Western KY87–74

A week or more of rest.

Tarleton St

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Abilene Chrstn78–84
  • Lvs UT Arlington60–65
  • L@ CA Baptist67–82
  • L@ Utah Valley72–79
  • Lvs Utah Tech72–80

A week or more of rest.