Wisdom Gym · at Tarleton St · Conference game
Closing line
TAR -4.5✓ ACU covered by 8.5
TAR -4.5✓ ACU covered by 8.5Closing total140.5Over by 23.5
 ACU | This season | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | Record | 7-5 |
| 7-5 | ATS | 10-2 |
| 7-5 | O/U | 8-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ACU 69–75 TAR · ✗ TAR (68%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACU | 46 | 38 | 84 |
| TAR | 38 | 42 | 80 |
1st half: ACU 46, TAR 38 (ACU by 8). The model had TAR by 3.2 and a total of 67.2 (actual 84).
Team stats
| ACU | TAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-52 56% | Field goals | 26-56 46% |
| 7-17 41% | 3-pointers | 1-6 17% |
| 19-26 73% | Free throws | 27-29 93% |
| 30 10 off | Rebounds | 26 11 off |
| 15 | Assists | 6 |
| 5 | Steals | 12 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 26 | Fouls | 24 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 22 |
Players
| ACU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradyn Hubbard F | 35 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 7-12 | 2-2 |
| Rich Smith G | 31 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 6-8 | 0-0 |
| Cade Hornecker F | 31 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 5-7 | 1-2 |
| Joseph Venzant G | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Cbo Newton G | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Yaniel Rivera G | 28 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2-9 | 2-6 |
| Zy Wright G | 18 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-3 |
| Isaac Dye G | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Tylan Lewis G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Ma'Shy Hill F | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Joseph Scott F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Isaiah Neyhart, Christian Alston
| TAR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Hicks G | 30 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Chris Mpaka F | 23 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| Leroy Kelly IV G | 22 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Jordan Mizell G | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Kaia Isaac G | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dior Johnson G | 33 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 9-19 | 0-1 |
| Kade Douglas G | 29 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 6-10 | 1-3 |
| Cam McDowell G | 21 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3-10 | 0-1 |
| Daniel Dormu G | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ocypher Owens F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jaden Jinks, Damion Porter Jr., Cameron Thomas, AJ Dent, Matyas Vrabel, Andy Sigiscar, Roy Marom, Malek Archie, Joseph Martinez
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTAR -4.5
ModelTAR -5.5
Model edgeTAR +1.0
L ACU covered
Total
Market140.5
Model143.4
Model edgeOver 2.9
W Over
Projected score
ACU 69 · TAR 74.5
ACU 84 · TAR 80
Win probability
TAR 68%
1st half
Spread
TAR -3.2
ACU -8.0
Total
67.2
84 points
Projected score
ACU 32 · TAR 35.2
ACU 46 · TAR 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTAR -6.5
2 → ACU
CloseTAR -4.5
2 pts toward ACU
Total
Open139.5
▲ 1
Close140.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
ACU +164 · TAR -198
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TAR -6.5 · closed TAR -4.5 · moved 2 toward ACUmodel TAR -5.5
model TAR -5.5
Opened 139.5 · closed 140.5 · moved 1 upmodel 143.5
model 143.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACU | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% |
| TAR | 7-3 70% | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
ACU 4–5 TARTAR leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · ACU 3-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024-25 | ACU 52 @ TAR 67 | TAR -1.5 | TAR W |
| Jan 23, 2024-25 | TAR 56 @ ACU 67 | ACU -3.5 | ACU W |
| Mar 20, 2023-24 | ACU 59 @ TAR 86 | TAR -6 | TAR W |
| Feb 1, 2023-24 | TAR 76 @ ACU 73 | ACU -1.5 | TAR W |
| Jan 18, 2023-24 | ACU 71 @ TAR 79 | TAR -4.5 | TAR W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Abilene Chrstn
12 games played
Straight up
6-6
50% wins
Against the spread
7-5
58% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-5
58% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | vs OMA | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 14 | @ SFA | L 66-76 | +6.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 18 | @ TXST | L 49-63 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 138.5 | U 112 |
| Nov 24 | vs UTSA | W 61-50 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 144.5 | U 111 |
| Nov 25 | vs W&M | L 58-92 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 2 | @ PEPP | W 71-63 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 137.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 6 | vs NMSU | W 77-69 | +1.5 | W +9.5 | 131.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 16 | @ ARIZ | L 62-96 | +34.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 19 | @ BYU | L 67-85 | +33.5 | W +15.5 | 146.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 22 | @ TXSO | W 75-68 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 1 | vs UTU | L 64-79 | -5.5 | L −20.5 | 139.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 3 | vs UVU | W 85-68 | +7.5 | W +24.5 | 139.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
6
vsOMA
OMAW 73-71
−2.5
14
@SFA
SFAL 66-76
−3.5
18
@TXST
TXSTL 49-63
−12.5
24
vsUTSA
UTSAW 61-50
+8.5
25
vsW&M
W&ML 58-92
−35.5
2
@PEPP
PEPPW 71-63
+6.5
6
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-69
+9.5
16
@ARIZ
ARIZL 62-96
+0.5
19
@BYU
BYUL 67-85
+15.5
22
@TXSO
TXSOW 75-68
+2.5
1
vsUTU
UTUL 64-79
−20.5
3
vsUVU
UVUW 85-68
+24.5
covered 7didn’t cover 5avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
6
vsOMA
OMAW 73-71
−6.5
14
@SFA
SFAL 66-76
−0.5
18
@TXST
TXSTL 49-63
−26.5
24
vsUTSA
UTSAW 61-50
−33.5
25
vsW&M
W&ML 58-92
+2.5
2
@PEPP
PEPPW 71-63
−3.5
6
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-69
+14.5
16
@ARIZ
ARIZL 62-96
+12.5
19
@BYU
BYUL 67-85
+5.5
22
@TXSO
TXSOW 75-68
+4.5
1
vsUTU
UTUL 64-79
+3.5
3
vsUVU
UVUW 85-68
+13.5
over 7under 5avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Tarleton St
12 games played
Straight up
7-5
58% wins
Against the spread
10-2
83% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-4
67% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ SMU | L 76-96 | +21.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 5 | @ LSU | L 60-96 | +15.5 | L −20.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 8 | vs AMCC | W 85-77 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 11 | vs MRMK | W 76-62 | -4.5 | W +9.5 | 142.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 14 | @ BAY | L 81-94 | +23.5 | W +10.5 | 149.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 20 | @ RICE | W 90-74 | +4.5 | W +20.5 | 146.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 1 | @ CIN | L 58-76 | +24.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | @ MVSU | W 88-64 | -17.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 19 | vs FAMU | W 78-54 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 145.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 29 | @ UTA | W 69-63 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 1 | vsUVU | L 85-91 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 3 | vs CBU | W 81-76 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@SMU
SMUL 76-96
+1.5
5
@LSU
LSUL 60-96
−20.5
8
vsAMCC
AMCCW 85-77
+4.5
11
vsMRMK
MRMKW 76-62
+9.5
14
@BAY
BAYL 81-94
+10.5
20
@RICE
RICEW 90-74
+20.5
1
@CIN
CINL 58-76
+6.5
16
@MVSU
MVSUW 88-64
+6.5
19
vsFAMU
FAMUW 78-54
+9.5
29
@UTA
UTAW 69-63
+8.5
1
vsUVU
UVUL 85-91
−0.5
3
vsCBU
CBUW 81-76
+3.5
covered 10didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@SMU
SMUL 76-96
+27.5
5
@LSU
LSUL 60-96
+7.5
8
vsAMCC
AMCCW 85-77
+19.5
11
vsMRMK
MRMKW 76-62
−4.5
14
@BAY
BAYL 81-94
+25.5
20
@RICE
RICEW 90-74
+17.5
1
@CIN
CINL 58-76
−8.5
16
@MVSU
MVSUW 88-64
+9.5
19
vsFAMU
FAMUW 78-54
−13.5
29
@UTA
UTAW 69-63
−4.5
1
vsUVU
UVUL 85-91
+31.5
3
vsCBU
CBUW 81-76
+9.5
over 8under 4avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Abilene Chrstn
6-6 overall · 1-1 in conference · United Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Utah Valley85–68
- Lvs Utah Tech64–79
- W@ Texas Southern75–68
- L@ BYU67–85
- L@ Arizona62–96
5 days since their last game.
Tarleton St
7-5 overall · 2-1 in conference · United Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs CA Baptist81–76
- Lvs Utah Valley85–91
- W@ UT Arlington69–63
- Wvs Florida A&M78–54
- W@ Miss Valley St88–64
5 days since their last game.