America First Events Center · at Southern Utah · Conference game
Closing line
TAR -3.5✓ SUU covered by 4.5
TAR -3.5✓ SUU covered by 4.5Closing total150.5Over by 60.5
| TAR | This season | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| 7-6 | Record | 1-13 |
| 10-3 | ATS | 6-8 |
| 9-4 | O/U | 8-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TAR 80–73 SUU · ✗ TAR (72%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAR | 44 | 48 | 13 | 105 |
| SUU | 52 | 40 | 14 | 106 |
1st half: TAR 44, SUU 52 (SUU by 8). The model had TAR by 4.1 and a total of 71.4 (actual 96).
Team stats
| TAR | SUU | |
|---|---|---|
| 38-74 51% | Field goals | 31-63 49% |
| 8-15 53% | 3-pointers | 13-32 41% |
| 21-28 75% | Free throws | 31-42 74% |
| 39 11 off | Rebounds | 40 12 off |
| 13 | Assists | 19 |
| 12 | Steals | 9 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 18 |
| 31 | Fouls | 24 |
| 54 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| TAR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Kelly IV G | 36 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Kaia Isaac G | 34 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Jordan Mizell G | 27 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Chris Mpaka F | 20 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| Freddy Hicks G | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cam McDowell G | 31 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 8-14 | 2-3 |
| Dior Johnson G | 30 | 40 | 5 | 2 | 13-22 | 4-4 |
| Daniel Dormu G | 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Ocypher Owens F | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Matyas Vrabel F | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Kade Douglas G | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Andy Sigiscar F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jaden Jinks, Damion Porter Jr., Cameron Thomas, AJ Dent, Joseph Martinez, Roy Marom, Malek Archie
| SUU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Hayhurst G | 43 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 6-9 | 2-4 |
| Dylan Jones G | 38 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 7-13 | 6-11 |
| Elijah Duval G | 27 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 3-10 | 0-2 |
| Jaiden Feroah F | 24 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 4-6 | 3-5 |
| Isaiah Cottrell F | 18 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Lorenzo Abellar G | 31 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Cale Barclay F | 22 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Lee G | 20 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 4-9 | 2-6 |
| Kai Burdick C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Zeplin Kidd, Langston Binns, Chuks Isitua, Brayden Johnson, Juok Riak, Logan Stephens, Zach Bell
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTAR -6.5
3 → SUU
CloseTAR -3.5
3 pts toward SUU
Total
Open152.5
▼ 2
Close150.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
TAR -185 · SUU +154
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TAR -6.5 · closed TAR -3.5 · moved 3 toward SUUmodel TAR -6.5
model TAR -6.5
Opened 152.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 2 downmodel 152.5
model 152.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TAR -3.5 | TAR -6.6 | TAR +3.1 | L SUU covered |
| Total | 150.5 | 152.5 | Over 2.0 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | TAR 79.6 · SUU 73 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | TAR -4.1 | SUU -8.0 |
| 1H total | 71.4 | 96 |
| 1H projected score | TAR 37.7 · SUU 33.7 | TAR 44 · SUU 52 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TAR | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% |
| SUU | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
TAR 4–2 SUUTAR leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · TAR has won the last 3 meetings · TAR 4-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | SUU 58 @ TAR 75 | TAR -6.5 | TAR W |
| Jan 9, 2024-25 | TAR 74 @ SUU 66 | SUU -7.5 | TAR W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | TAR 88 @ SUU 83 | SUU +4.5 | TAR W |
| Jan 25, 2023-24 | SUU 73 @ TAR 70 | TAR -5.5 | SUU W |
| Feb 9, 2022-23 | TAR 62 @ SUU 72 | SUU -7.5 | SUU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tarleton St
13 games played
Straight up
7-6
54% wins
Against the spread
10-3
77% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-4
69% overs · avg +10.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ SMU | L 76-96 | +21.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 5 | @ LSU | L 60-96 | +15.5 | L −20.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 8 | vs AMCC | W 85-77 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 11 | vs MRMK | W 76-62 | -4.5 | W +9.5 | 142.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 14 | @ BAY | L 81-94 | +23.5 | W +10.5 | 149.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 20 | @ RICE | W 90-74 | +4.5 | W +20.5 | 146.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 1 | @ CIN | L 58-76 | +24.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | @ MVSU | W 88-64 | -17.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 19 | vs FAMU | W 78-54 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 145.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 29 | @ UTA | W 69-63 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 1 | vs UVU | L 85-91 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 3 | vs CBU | W 81-76 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 8 | vs ACU | L 80-84 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 140.5 | O 164 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@SMU
SMUL 76-96
+1.5
5
@LSU
LSUL 60-96
−20.5
8
vsAMCC
AMCCW 85-77
+4.5
11
vsMRMK
MRMKW 76-62
+9.5
14
@BAY
BAYL 81-94
+10.5
20
@RICE
RICEW 90-74
+20.5
1
@CIN
CINL 58-76
+6.5
16
@MVSU
MVSUW 88-64
+6.5
19
vsFAMU
FAMUW 78-54
+9.5
29
@UTA
UTAW 69-63
+8.5
1
vsUVU
UVUL 85-91
−0.5
3
vsCBU
CBUW 81-76
+3.5
8
vsACU
ACUL 80-84
−8.5
covered 10didn’t cover 3avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@SMU
SMUL 76-96
+27.5
5
@LSU
LSUL 60-96
+7.5
8
vsAMCC
AMCCW 85-77
+19.5
11
vsMRMK
MRMKW 76-62
−4.5
14
@BAY
BAYL 81-94
+25.5
20
@RICE
RICEW 90-74
+17.5
1
@CIN
CINL 58-76
−8.5
16
@MVSU
MVSUW 88-64
+9.5
19
vsFAMU
FAMUW 78-54
−13.5
29
@UTA
UTAW 69-63
−4.5
1
vsUVU
UVUL 85-91
+31.5
3
vsCBU
CBUW 81-76
+9.5
8
vsACU
ACUL 80-84
+23.5
over 9under 4avg +10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Southern Utah
14 games played
Straight up
1-13
7% wins
Against the spread
6-8
43% covers · avg −5.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-6
57% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @ ASU | L 64-81 | +17.5 | W +0.5 | 151.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 8 | vs RGV | L 72-95 | +1.5 | L −21.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 15 | @ OMA | L 85-90 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 17 | @ GONZ | L 50-122 | +35.5 | L −36.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 19 | @ WSU | L 74-98 | +12.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 28 | @ RMU | L 54-61 | +8.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | U 115 |
| Nov 29 | vs STET | W 70-68 | -1.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 6 | @ ORST | L 70-81 | +10.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 13 | @ WASH | L 69-105 | +25.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 18 | @ NAU | L 57-65 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 29 | @ UTU | L 66-80 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 3 | vsUTA | L 77-86 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 138.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 8 | @UVU | L 72-89 | +18.5 | W +1.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 10 | @CBU | L 55-58 | +14.5 | W +11.5 | 150.5 | U 113 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@ASU
ASUL 64-81
+0.5
8
vsRGV
RGVL 72-95
−21.5
15
@OMA
OMAL 85-90
+3.5
17
@GONZ
GONZL 50-122
−36.5
19
@WSU
WSUL 74-98
−11.5
28
@RMU
RMUL 54-61
+1.5
29
vsSTET
STETW 70-68
+0.5
6
@ORST
ORSTL 70-81
−0.5
13
@WASH
WASHL 69-105
−10.5
18
@NAU
NAUL 57-65
−2.5
29
@UTU
UTUL 66-80
−6.5
3
vsUTA
UTAL 77-86
−3.5
8
@UVU
UVUL 72-89
+1.5
10
@CBU
CBUL 55-58
+11.5
covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@ASU
ASUL 64-81
−6.5
8
vsRGV
RGVL 72-95
+6.5
15
@OMA
OMAL 85-90
+21.5
17
@GONZ
GONZL 50-122
+11.5
19
@WSU
WSUL 74-98
+14.5
28
@RMU
RMUL 54-61
−37.5
29
vsSTET
STETW 70-68
−10.5
6
@ORST
ORSTL 70-81
+4.5
13
@WASH
WASHL 69-105
+20.5
18
@NAU
NAUL 57-65
−28.5
29
@UTU
UTUL 66-80
−2.5
3
vsUTA
UTAL 77-86
+24.5
8
@UVU
UVUL 72-89
+6.5
10
@CBU
CBUL 55-58
−37.5
over 8under 6avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tarleton St
7-6 overall · 2-2 in conference · United Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Abilene Chrstn80–84
- Wvs CA Baptist81–76
- Lvs Utah Valley85–91
- W@ UT Arlington69–63
- Wvs Florida A&M78–54
A week or more of rest.
Southern Utah
1-13 overall · 0-4 in conference · Big Sky Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ CA Baptist55–58
- L@ Utah Valley72–89
- Lvs UT Arlington77–86
- L@ Utah Tech66–80
- L@ N Arizona57–65
5 days since their last game.