Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Robert Morris Colonials: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ETUPMC Events Center · at Robert Morris

Final

Closing lineRMU -8.5✓ SUU covered by 1.5

Closing total152.5Under by 37.5

Season records: Southern Utah and Robert Morris
SUU	This season	RMU
0-5	Record	2-3
2-3	ATS	3-2
4-1	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SUU 74–84 RMU · ✓ RMU (82%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SUU	15	39	54
RMU	34	27	61

1st half: SUU 15, RMU 34 (RMU by 19). The model had RMU by 6.1 and a total of 73.6 (actual 49).

Team stats

SUU		RMU
20-52 38%	Field goals	25-62 40%
4-16 25%	3-pointers	5-24 21%
10-16 63%	Free throws	6-12 50%
37 9 off	Rebounds	41 14 off
9	Assists	15
3	Steals	10
3	Blocks	3
15	Turnovers	10
14	Fouls	19
32	Points in paint	30
9	Fast-break points	8

Players

SUU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaiden Feroah F	36	17	5	1	5-7	0-1
Isaiah Cottrell F	30	4	10	1	1-4	0-2
Elijah Duval G	27	13	5	5	6-17	1-4
Tanner Hayhurst G	27	17	5	0	7-12	3-5
Cale Barclay F	25	2	4	2	1-4	0-2
Bench
Dylan Jones G	27	0	3	0	0-4	0-2
Jalen Lee G	12	1	1	0	0-1	0-0
Lorenzo Abellar G	11	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Kai Burdick C	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Logan Stephens G	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Langston Binns, Zach Bell, Zeplin Kidd, Juok Riak, Brayden Johnson, Chuks Isitua

RMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
DeSean Goode F	37	12	14	1	5-9	0-2
Ryan Prather Jr. G	32	5	4	2	2-12	1-9
Ta'Zir Smith G	27	5	4	2	2-7	0-1
Nikos Chitikoudis F	27	11	7	0	5-11	0-0
Albert Vargas G	24	14	3	5	5-7	2-3
Bench
Darius Livingston G	21	8	0	3	3-9	2-6
Josh Hill F	13	6	0	0	3-5	0-2
Kaleb Brown G	11	0	2	1	0-1	0-1
Cam Wilds G	8	0	2	1	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Ubong Okon, Eddie Cooke III, Vasilije Serafimoski, Cyril Arvanitis, Samuel Obenjo, Tanner O'Grady, Jeremiah Littlejohn

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	RMU -8.5	RMU -10.3	RMU +1.8	L SUU covered
Total	152.5	157.2	Over 4.7	L Under
Projected score	—	SUU 73.5 · RMU 83.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	RMU -6.1	RMU -19.0
1H total	73.6	49
1H projected score	SUU 33.8 · RMU 39.8	SUU 15 · RMU 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SUU WLWLL	2-3	40%	2-2	2-3
RMU LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-0	—

Venue/role: SUU away, as underdog; RMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SUU UOOOO	4-1	80%	0-5
RMU OOUUO	3-2	60%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SUUlast 5	0-5 0%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%
RMUlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Utah

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −13.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-180%

U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ASU	L 64-81	+17.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 8	vsRGV	L 72-95	+1.5	L −21.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 15	@OMA	L 85-90	+8.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 175
Nov 17	@GONZ	L 50-122	+35.5	L −36.5	160.5	O 172
Nov 19	@WSU	L 74-98	+12.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ASU

L 64-81

+0.5

RGV

L 72-95

−21.5

OMA

L 85-90

+3.5

GONZ

L 50-122

−36.5

WSU

L 74-98

−11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −13.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ASU

L 64-81

−6.5

RGV

L 72-95

+6.5

OMA

L 85-90

+21.5

GONZ

L 50-122

+11.5

WSU

L 74-98

+14.5

over 4under 1avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Robert Morris

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +6.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@IOWA	L 69-101	+22.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 170
Nov 6	@DRKE	W 81-79	+7.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 20	@SBU	L 61-75	+11.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 23	@MONM	L 70-71	+2.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsUIC	W 88-74	+1.5	W +15.5	151.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IOWA

L 69-101

−9.5

DRKE

W 81-79

+9.5

SBU

L 61-75

−2.5

MONM

L 70-71

+1.5

UIC

W 88-74

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IOWA

L 69-101

+33.5

DRKE

W 81-79

+8.5

SBU

L 61-75

−10.5

MONM

L 70-71

−7.5

UIC

W 88-74

+10.5

over 3under 2avg +6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Robert Morris Colonials

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern Utah

Robert Morris

Southern Utah

Robert Morris