1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. SMU vs MINN
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

SMU Mustangs vs Minnesota Golden Gophers

Comerica Center · Neutral site
#55SMUSMU
vs
#70MINNMinnesota
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SMUThis seasonMINN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMU 73–70 · win probability SMU 60%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 143.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMU has more of the edges

SMU 3, MINN 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: SMU plays 71.1 a game (68th fastest), MINN 63.6 (362nd). Faster games mean more points
MINNBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: SMU 30.4, MINN 35.8. Allowed: SMU 32.1, MINN 26.9
SMUSmall
Three-pointers
SMU hits 37.1% and allows 34.1%; MINN hits 34.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 35.9% and 47.1% of their shots
MINNSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SMU 20%, MINN 66%. Transfers in: SMU 7, MINN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
SMUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SMU 35.4%, MINN 26.8%. Defensive: SMU 68.4%, MINN 70.5%
SMUSmall
MINN offense vs SMU defense
Offense 120th of 366 against a defense 69th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SMU 55.6 and allows 51.6; MINN 53.9 and allows 51.9
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SMU 15.8%, MINN 16.6%. Forced: SMU 16.8%, MINN 16.8%
Even
SMU offense vs MINN defense
Offense 45th of 366 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Context
Schedule so far
SMU has played the 70th-hardest schedule, MINN the 71st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SMU -3.0—
Total—143.5—
Projected score—SMU 73.3 · MINN 70.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSMU -1.9—
1H total67.2—
1H projected scoreSMU 34.5 · MINN 32.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

SMU has the better starters

Position by position: SMU 2, Minnesota 1, even 2
SMUBetterMinnesota
G R. Brumbaugh TR19.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 95
SMUSmall
G I. Asuma10.9 pts · 4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 64
G D. Terrell TR13.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.9 ast Score 89
SMUBig
G M. Palmer TR4.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43
G O. Sellers TR10.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 78
Even
F B. Durkin10.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
G J. Patrick TR7.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 59
MINNSmall
F J. Crocker-Johnson13.4 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 81
F J. Munch TR7.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 69
Even
F G. Grove4 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 59
SMUBetterMinnesota
SMU offense45th of 366 · +4.2
Even
MINN defense22nd of 366 · +5.2
SMU defense69th of 366 · +0.8
Even
MINN offense120th of 366 · -2.8
Backcourt+8.2 · 4 players
SMUBig
Backcourt-0.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.7 · 1 player
MINNSmall
Frontcourt+2.9 · 3 players
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
SMUSmall
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSMU betterMINN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SMU
Guards
R. Brumbaugh36 min · TRD. Terrell33 min · TRO. Sellers29 min · TRJ. Patrick20 min · TRN. Kalischer-Stork1 minG. NormandNew
Forwards
J. Munch21 min · TRJ. Toombs20 minJ. Stewart16 min · TRN. Codie16 min · TRJ. O'Neal15 minN. Walls3 min
Minnesota
Guards
I. Asuma34 minM. Palmer18 min · TRK. Evans18 min · TRK. Shinholster13 minN. Groves6 min · TRW. Grady6 min · TR
Forwards
B. Durkin33 minJ. Crocker-Johnson32 minG. Grove21 minN. AndersonNew
Centers
M. Kordel4 min · TRC. MpoyiNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SMUMINN
Scoring
84.1 #19Points per game69.4 #294
1.19 #26Points per possession1.10 #147
71.1 #68Pace (possessions)63.6 #362
Shooting
55.6 #27Effective FG%53.9 #69
37.1 #273-point %34.1 #164
35.9 #2523-point attempt rate47.1 #31
30.4 #301Free throw rate35.8 #159
Possessions
15.8 #119Turnover rate16.6 #170
35.4 #37Offensive rebound rate26.8 #304
16.9 #27Assists per game17.0 #25
Defense
77.9 #265Points allowed68.5 #38
1.09 #199Points allowed per possession1.07 #139
51.6 #189Opponent effective FG%51.9 #207
34.1 #188Opponent 3-point %34.6 #229
16.8 #171Turnovers forced16.8 #168
68.4 #237Defensive rebound rate70.5 #137
7.0 #129Steals per game6.3 #197
3.6 #132Blocks per game2.7 #284
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SMU

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami OH79–89
  • Lvs Louisville58–62
  • Wvs Syracuse86–69
  • L@ Florida St78–91
  • Lvs Miami69–77

A week or more of rest.

Minnesota

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Baylor48–67
  • Lvs Rutgers67–72
  • Wvs Northwestern67–66
  • L@ Indiana47–77
  • Wvs UCLA78–73

A week or more of rest.