Toledo Rockets at Western Michigan Broncos: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 1:00 PM ETUniversity Arena (MI) · at W Michigan · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Toledo and W Michigan
TOL	This season	WMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WMU 79–78 · win probability WMU 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOL has more of the edges

TOL 6, WMU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

TOLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOL 14.7%, WMU 16.8%. Forced: TOL 17.9%, WMU 13.4%

TOLBig

TOL offense vs WMU defense

Offense 121st of 366 against a defense 253rd, on the model’s ratings

WMUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOL 29.5%, WMU 30.5%. Defensive: TOL 66.3%, WMU 70.9%

WMUSmall

WMU offense vs TOL defense

Offense 137th of 366 against a defense 234th, on the model’s ratings

TOLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOL 54.5 and allows 54.3; WMU 49.9 and allows 54.4

TOLSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOL 30.5, WMU 32.8. Allowed: TOL 26.6, WMU 37.5

TOLSmall

Three-pointers

TOL hits 37.0% and allows 34.4%; WMU hits 35.3% and allows 36.1%. Threes are 32.5% and 36.1% of their shots

TOLSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOL 43%, WMU 0%. Transfers in: TOL 2, WMU 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

WMUSmall

Home court

WMU at home. This season: WMU 0-0 at home, TOL 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: TOL plays 69.5 a game (146th fastest), WMU 69.3 (160th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

TOL has played the 172nd-hardest schedule, WMU the 175th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WMU -1.2	—
Total	—	156.5	—
Projected score	—	TOL 77.6 · WMU 78.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WMU -0.6	—
1H total	73.1	—
1H projected score	TOL 36.3 · WMU 36.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WWLWW	19-13	59%	10-4	—
WMU LWWLW	16-13	55%	8-5	—

Venue/role: TOL away; WMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UOOUU	13-19	41%	17-15
WMU OOUOO	18-11	62%	9-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
WMU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Toledo

No more games listed yet.

W Michigan

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

TOL 7–0 WMUTOL leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · TOL has won the last 7 meetings · TOL 6-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 11, 2025-26	TOL 90 @ WMU 79	WMU +6.5	TOL W
Dec 30, 2025-26	WMU 79 @ TOL 84	TOL -10.5	WMU W
Jan 4, 2024-25	TOL 76 @ WMU 70	WMU +2.5	TOL W
Jan 30, 2023-24	WMU 63 @ TOL 88	TOL -11.5	TOL W
Jan 6, 2022-23	WMU 74 @ TOL 102	TOL -15.5	TOL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Toledo

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-19

41% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

L L W W W W L L L L W W W L W L L W L W L L W L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

L L W L W W L W L W L L W L W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1941%

U U U O O U U O U O O U U U O O O U O U U U O U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSA	L 74-76	-2.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 8	vsMRSH	L 73-85	-2.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 11	@WRST	W 81-71	+5.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsDETM	W 90-83	-10.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 19	vsYSU	W 92-75	-1.5	W +15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 24	vsTROY	W 75-68	+2.5	W +9.5	159.5	U 143
Nov 26	vsBEL	L 72-87	+4.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 6	@OAK	L 97-98	+4.5	W +3.5	166.5	O 195
Dec 13	@RMU	L 70-75	-1.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 16	@MSU	L 69-92	+23.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 30	vsWMU	W 84-79	-10.5	L −5.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 3	@CMU	W 78-75	-7.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 6	@NIU	W 75-61	-7.5	W +6.5	161.5	U 136
Jan 9	vsM-OH	L 73-87	-1.5	L −15.5	166.5	U 160
Jan 13	vsOHIO	W 101-85	-2.5	W +13.5	161.5	O 186
Jan 16	@KENT	L 84-87	+5.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 171
Jan 20	@MASS	L 82-84	+2.5	W +0.5	164.5	O 166
Jan 24	vsBGSU	W 73-72	+1.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 145
Jan 27	@AKR	L 81-91	+12.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsBALL	W 73-55	-8.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 3	vsKENT	L 72-75	+1.5	L −1.5	161.5	U 147
Feb 7	@JMU	L 71-73	-1.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 144
Feb 11	@WMU	W 90-79	-6.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 169
Feb 14	@BGSU	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 150
Feb 21	vsEMU	W 94-75	-8.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 169
Feb 24	vsNIU	W 79-69	-12.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Feb 28	@OHIO	W 79-67	+1.5	W +13.5	158.5	U 146
Mar 3	@M-OH	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 6	vsBUF	W 99-78	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	O 177
Mar 12	vsBGSU	W 77-76	-1.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 153
Mar 13	vsMASS	W 77-67	-2.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 144
Mar 14	vsAKR	L 76-79	+7.5	W +4.5	157.5	U 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−4.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−14.5

WRST

W 81-71

+15.5

DETM

W 90-83

−3.5

YSU

W 92-75

+15.5

TROY

W 75-68

+9.5

BEL

L 72-87

−10.5

OAK

L 97-98

+3.5

RMU

L 70-75

−6.5

MSU

L 69-92

+0.5

WMU

W 84-79

−5.5

CMU

W 78-75

−4.5

NIU

W 75-61

+6.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−15.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+13.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+0.5

BGSU

W 73-72

+2.5

AKR

L 81-91

+2.5

BALL

W 73-55

+9.5

KENT

L 72-75

−1.5

JMU

L 71-73

−3.5

WMU

W 90-79

+4.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−6.5

EMU

W 94-75

+10.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

+13.5

M-OH

L 72-74

+5.5

BUF

W 99-78

+15.5

BGSU

W 77-76

−0.5

MASS

W 77-67

+7.5

AKR

L 76-79

+4.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−0.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−2.5

WRST

W 81-71

−7.5

DETM

W 90-83

+13.5

YSU

W 92-75

+6.5

TROY

W 75-68

−16.5

BEL

L 72-87

−4.5

OAK

L 97-98

+28.5

RMU

L 70-75

−9.5

MSU

L 69-92

+10.5

WMU

W 84-79

+2.5

CMU

W 78-75

−5.5

NIU

W 75-61

−25.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−6.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+24.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+1.5

BGSU

W 73-72

−10.5

AKR

L 81-91

+3.5

BALL

W 73-55

−18.5

KENT

L 72-75

−14.5

JMU

L 71-73

−9.5

WMU

W 90-79

+14.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−0.5

EMU

W 94-75

+23.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

−12.5

M-OH

L 72-74

−16.5

BUF

W 99-78

+21.5

BGSU

W 77-76

+2.5

MASS

W 77-67

−14.5

AKR

L 76-79

−2.5

over 13under 19avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

W Michigan

29 games played

Straight up

9-20

31% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-11

62% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2031%

W L W L L W L W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L W L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1355%

W W W L L W L W W L L W W W W W L W L L L L W L L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1162%

O O U U U U U O O O O O O U O O U U O O U O U O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCCU	W 76-71	-2.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 9	@CAM	L 82-91	+9.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 12	vsPFW	W 83-71	+3.5	W +15.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 16	@SDAK	L 78-83	+3.5	L −1.5	172.5	U 161
Nov 20	@OSU	L 58-91	+26.5	L −6.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 23	vsMSM	W 83-60	-1.5	W +21.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 29	@VAL	L 55-84	+4.5	L −24.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 3	vsUSI	W 88-74	-5.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 6	@SIUE	W 83-73	+5.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 156
Dec 14	@IOWA	L 51-91	+25.5	L −14.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 20	vsBUF	L 71-88	+2.5	L −14.5	150.5	O 159
Dec 30	@TOL	L 79-84	+10.5	W +5.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 6	@M-OH	L 76-87	+14.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsEMU	W 79-62	+1.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 13	vsMASS	L 82-85	+5.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 167
Jan 17	@AKR	L 89-104	+21.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 193
Jan 20	vsBGSU	L 54-72	+6.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 126
Jan 24	vsCMU	W 77-65	-5.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 142
Jan 27	@NIU	L 65-85	+1.5	L −18.5	146.5	O 150
Feb 3	@OHIO	L 71-91	+10.5	L −9.5	155.5	O 162
Feb 7	@TXST	L 61-77	+6.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 11	vsTOL	L 79-90	+6.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 169
Feb 14	@EMU	W 76-62	+6.5	W +20.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 17	vsAKR	L 73-90	+14.5	L −2.5	160.5	O 163
Feb 21	@CMU	L 70-83	+3.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 153
Feb 24	@BGSU	W 88-79	+11.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 167
Feb 27	vsM-OH	L 67-69	+12.5	W +10.5	161.5	U 136
Mar 3	vsBALL	L 71-74	-1.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 145
Mar 6	@KENT	L 78-86	+13.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 76-71

+2.5

CAM

L 82-91

+0.5

PFW

W 83-71

+15.5

SDAK

L 78-83

−1.5

OSU

L 58-91

−6.5

MSM

W 83-60

+21.5

VAL

L 55-84

−24.5

USI

W 88-74

+8.5

SIUE

W 83-73

+15.5

IOWA

L 51-91

−14.5

BUF

L 71-88

−14.5

TOL

L 79-84

+5.5

M-OH

L 76-87

+3.5

EMU

W 79-62

+18.5

MASS

L 82-85

+2.5

AKR

L 89-104

+6.5

BGSU

L 54-72

−11.5

CMU

W 77-65

+6.5

NIU

L 65-85

−18.5

OHIO

L 71-91

−9.5

TXST

L 61-77

−9.5

TOL

L 79-90

−4.5

EMU

W 76-62

+20.5

AKR

L 73-90

−2.5

CMU

L 70-83

−9.5

BGSU

W 88-79

+20.5

M-OH

L 67-69

+10.5

BALL

L 71-74

−4.5

KENT

L 78-86

+5.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 76-71

+0.5

CAM

L 82-91

+20.5

PFW

W 83-71

−7.5

SDAK

L 78-83

−11.5

OSU

L 58-91

−10.5

MSM

W 83-60

−7.5

VAL

L 55-84

−7.5

USI

W 88-74

+11.5

SIUE

W 83-73

+16.5

IOWA

L 51-91

+4.5

BUF

L 71-88

+8.5

TOL

L 79-84

+2.5

M-OH

L 76-87

+2.5

EMU

W 79-62

−4.5

MASS

L 82-85

+9.5

AKR

L 89-104

+29.5

BGSU

L 54-72

−26.5

CMU

W 77-65

−6.5

NIU

L 65-85

+3.5

OHIO

L 71-91

+6.5

TXST

L 61-77

−8.5

TOL

L 79-90

+14.5

EMU

W 76-62

−5.5

AKR

L 73-90

+2.5

CMU

L 70-83

+2.5

BGSU

W 88-79

+17.5

M-OH

L 67-69

−25.5

BALL

L 71-74

+6.5

KENT

L 78-86

+6.5

over 18under 11avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

W Michigan has the better starters

Position by position: Toledo 1, W Michigan 2, even 2

ToledoBetterW Michigan

G A. Montas TR16.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89

TOLBig

G T. Hayhurst TR10 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 41

G S. Jones TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 3.9 ast Not ranked

No call

G M. Bendinger TR14.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 37

G M. Strong5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 19

WMUBig

G R. Lee TR15.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 79

F J. Ouwinga6.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 27

WMUBig

G J. Washington TR10 pts · 2.3 reb · 4 ast Score 73

C A. Parks10.3 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 54

Even

F I. Finlinson TR9.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 56

ToledoBetterW Michigan

TOL offense121st of 366 · -2.8

TOLBig

WMU defense253rd of 366 · -6.6

TOL defense234th of 366 · -6.2

WMUSmall

WMU offense137th of 366 · -4.0

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

TOLSmall

Backcourt-1.0 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt0.0 · 1 player

Bench-1.5 · 3 players

Even

Bench-1.7 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestTOL betterWMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Toledo

Guards

A. Montas31 min · TRS. Jones21 min · TRM. Strong18 minW. James9 minM. JohnsonNewM. MattucciNew

Forwards

J. Ouwinga19 minC. Riddle13 minT. Nwokolo2 minR. BarronNewR. PorterNew

Centers

A. Parks25 min

W Michigan

Guards

T. Hayhurst31 min · TRM. Bendinger31 min · TRR. Lee29 min · TRJ. Washington27 min · TRJ. Gomez23 min · TRA. Harakow19 min · TR

Forwards

I. Finlinson23 min · TRJ. Eli15 min · TRA. Kiudulas14 min · TRD. WatkinsNew

Centers

J. JünemannNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOL79.8 #71

WMU73.9 #203

Points per possession

TOL1.15 #62

WMU1.06 #225

Pace (possessions)

TOL69.5 #146

WMU69.3 #160

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOL54.5 #50

WMU49.9 #241

3-point %

TOL37.0 #29

WMU35.3 #95

3-point attempt rate

TOL32.5 #323

WMU36.1 #248

Free throw rate

TOL30.5 #298

WMU32.8 #241

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOL14.7 #51

WMU16.8 #191

Offensive rebound rate

TOL29.5 #220

WMU30.5 #177

Assists per game

TOL15.6 #61

WMU12.4 #256

Defense

Points allowed

TOL77.4 #250

WMU80.1 #320

Points allowed per possession

TOL1.11 #257

WMU1.16 #336

Opponent effective FG%

TOL54.3 #308

WMU54.4 #310

Opponent 3-point %

TOL34.4 #215

WMU36.1 #307

Turnovers forced

TOL17.9 #104

WMU13.4 #346

Defensive rebound rate

TOL66.3 #313

WMU70.9 #110

Steals per game

TOL7.7 #67

WMU4.1 #362

Blocks per game

TOL2.9 #247

WMU2.5 #301

TOL		WMU
Scoring
79.8 #71	Points per game	73.9 #203
1.15 #62	Points per possession	1.06 #225
69.5 #146	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #160
Shooting
54.5 #50	Effective FG%	49.9 #241
37.0 #29	3-point %	35.3 #95
32.5 #323	3-point attempt rate	36.1 #248
30.5 #298	Free throw rate	32.8 #241
Possessions
14.7 #51	Turnover rate	16.8 #191
29.5 #220	Offensive rebound rate	30.5 #177
15.6 #61	Assists per game	12.4 #256
Defense
77.4 #250	Points allowed	80.1 #320
1.11 #257	Points allowed per possession	1.16 #336
54.3 #308	Opponent effective FG%	54.4 #310
34.4 #215	Opponent 3-point %	36.1 #307
17.9 #104	Turnovers forced	13.4 #346
66.3 #313	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #110
7.7 #67	Steals per game	4.1 #362
2.9 #247	Blocks per game	2.5 #301

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Toledo

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Akron76–79
Wvs UMass77–67
Wvs Bowling Green77–76
Wvs Buffalo99–78
L@ Miami OH72–74

A week or more of rest.

W Michigan

9-20 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Kent State78–86
Lvs Ball State71–74
Lvs Miami OH67–69
W@ Bowling Green88–79
L@ C Michigan70–83

A week or more of rest.

Toledo Rockets at Western Michigan Broncos

What could decide it: TOL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Toledo

W Michigan

W Michigan has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Toledo

W Michigan