1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. M-OH vs HPU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Miami (OH) RedHawks vs High Point Panthers

Novant Health Fieldhouse · Neutral site
#125M-OHMiami OH
vs
#90HPUHigh Point
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
M-OHThis seasonHPU
0-0Record1-0
0-0ATS1-0
0-0O/U0-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HPU 82–78 · win probability HPU 66%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 160.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: M-OH has more of the edges

M-OH 3, HPU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
HPUBig
HPU offense vs M-OH defense
Offense 64th of 366 against a defense 207th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
M-OH has played the 207th-hardest schedule, HPU the 288th. A record against a soft schedule means less
HPUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: M-OH 14.3%, HPU 12.8%. Forced: M-OH 17.4%, HPU 21.3%
M-OHSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: M-OH 39.6, HPU 40.8. Allowed: M-OH 30.2, HPU 35.5
M-OHSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: M-OH 65%, HPU 36%. Transfers in: M-OH 3, HPU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
M-OHSmall
Three-pointers
M-OH hits 37.1% and allows 33.1%; HPU hits 34.2% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 45.6% and 43.6% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: M-OH 25.5%, HPU 31.8%. Defensive: M-OH 71.3%, HPU 68.9%
Even
M-OH offense vs HPU defense
Offense 100th of 366 against a defense 127th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: M-OH plays 72.1 a game (33rd fastest), HPU 71.7 (47th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: M-OH 58.6 and allows 51.2; HPU 54.5 and allows 50.5
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—HPU -4.7—
Total—160.1—
Projected score—M-OH 77.7 · HPU 82.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadHPU -2.7—
1H total74.8—
1H projected scoreM-OH 36.1 · HPU 38.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

High Point has the better starters

Position by position: Miami OH 0, High Point 1, even 4
Miami OHBetterHigh Point
G E. Ipsaro14.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 85
Even
G J. Rivera-Torres TR15.9 pts · 8.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 91
G L. Skaljac10.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.6 ast Score 61
Even
G C. Williams TR12.4 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 60
G S. Elam TR10.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 64
Even
G C. Brown TR10.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 4.6 ast Score 64
F R. Rolf TR8.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 51
HPUSmall
F I. Garrett TR13.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 79
F A. Woolfolk10 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 76
Even
F F. Sherman TR10.8 pts · 8.6 reb · 1 ast Score 85
Miami OHBetterHigh Point
M-OH offense100th of 366 · -0.9
Even
HPU defense127th of 366 · -2.3
M-OH defense207th of 366 · -5.2
HPUBig
HPU offense64th of 366 · +2.2
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
HPUSmall
Backcourt+3.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players
HPUSmall
Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players
Bench-2.4 · 5 players
HPUBig
Bench+4.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestM-OH betterHPU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Miami OH
Guards
E. Ipsaro30 minL. Skaljac29 minS. Elam26 min · TRJ. Kirby17 minB. AndersonNewL. StowersNew
Forwards
R. Rolf27 min · TRA. Woolfolk24 minP. Copeland19 min · TRA. Atlason19 minK. Waltz5 minT. Robbins5 min
High Point
Guards
J. Rivera-Torres36 min · TRC. Williams32 min · TRC. Brown27 min · TRC. Martinez22 minL. Campbell15 min · TRS. McDermott2 min · TR
Forwards
I. Garrett29 min · TRF. Sherman26 min · TRF. Brankovic24 min · TRC. Fletcher22 minB. Hausen21 minC. Miller7 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
M-OHHPU
Scoring
86.3 #10Points per game86.4 #9
1.20 #15Points per possession1.20 #12
72.1 #33Pace (possessions)71.7 #47
Shooting
58.6 #6Effective FG%54.5 #51
37.1 #253-point %34.2 #161
45.6 #553-point attempt rate43.6 #98
39.6 #64Free throw rate40.8 #50
Possessions
14.3 #36Turnover rate12.8 #5
25.5 #332Offensive rebound rate31.8 #131
15.1 #80Assists per game15.4 #74
Defense
76.5 #229Points allowed72.8 #128
1.06 #102Points allowed per possession1.01 #38
51.2 #167Opponent effective FG%50.5 #126
33.1 #131Opponent 3-point %32.6 #97
17.4 #128Turnovers forced21.3 #8
71.3 #92Defensive rebound rate68.9 #207
7.0 #124Steals per game10.1 #2
3.1 #202Blocks per game3.6 #119
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Miami OH

29-2 in 2025-26 overall · 18-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee56–78
  • Wvs SMU89–79
  • Lvs UMass83–87
  • W@ Ohio110–108
  • Wvs Toledo74–72

A week or more of rest.

High Point

28-5 in 2025-26 overall · 18-1 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arkansas88–94
  • Wvs Wisconsin83–82
  • Wvs Winthrop91–76
  • Wvs UNC Asheville75–71
  • Wvs Gardner-Webb81–59

A week or more of rest.