1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Dec 11
  3. DEN @ UTSA
NCAAB · Fri, Dec 11

Denver Pioneers at UTSA Roadrunners

UTSA Convocation Center · at UTSA
#263DENDenver
@
#192UTSAUTSA
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DENThis seasonUTSA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTSA 80–76 · win probability UTSA 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 156.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

DEN 4, UTSA 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UTSABig
UTSA offense vs DEN defense
Offense 155th of 366 against a defense 337th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DEN has played the 249th-hardest schedule, UTSA the 104th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DENBig
Three-pointers
DEN hits 36.8% and allows 36.7%; UTSA hits 29.2% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 38.6% and 41.3% of their shots
DENSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: DEN 53.6 and allows 56.0; UTSA 44.8 and allows 53.3
DENSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DEN 14.2%, UTSA 17.4%. Forced: DEN 13.0%, UTSA 14.7%
DENSmall
DEN offense vs UTSA defense
Offense 184th of 366 against a defense 238th, on the model’s ratings
UTSASmall
Home court
UTSA at home. This season: UTSA 0-0 at home, DEN 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DEN 29.8%, UTSA 30.2%. Defensive: DEN 67.2%, UTSA 61.3%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DEN 27%, UTSA 15%. Transfers in: DEN 6, UTSA 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DEN 34.1, UTSA 29.5. Allowed: DEN 36.8, UTSA 33.3
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: DEN plays 69.4 a game (151st fastest), UTSA 69.6 (142nd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UTSA -3.8—
Total—156.4—
Projected score—DEN 76.3 · UTSA 80.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUTSA -2.1—
1H total73.1—
1H projected scoreDEN 35.5 · UTSA 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UTSA has the better starters

Position by position: Denver 1, UTSA 3, even 1
DenverBetterUTSA
G C. Johnson19.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73
DENBig
G D. Hayes8.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 16
G K. Martin TR5.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24
UTSASmall
G J. Kelly TR8.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 44
G C. Hyland TR5 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 20
UTSABig
G D. Williams TR10 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 72
F J. Rogers TR5.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 27
Even
G P. Turner TR7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 31
F S. Wysocki5.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 14
UTSABig
G I. Coleman TR6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50
DenverBetterUTSA
DEN offense184th of 366 · -5.7
DENSmall
UTSA defense238th of 366 · -6.2
DEN defense337th of 366 · -8.9
UTSABig
UTSA offense155th of 366 · -4.7
Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players
DENBig
Backcourt-5.4 · 5 players
Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-2.4 · 3 players
DENSmall
Bench-3.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDEN betterUTSA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Denver
Guards
C. Johnson36 minK. Martin16 min · TRC. Hyland15 min · TRT. Cady11 min · TRL. ThreattNewJ. NelsonNew
Forwards
J. Rogers27 min · TRS. Wysocki19 minS. Mahoney5 min · TRH. BatesNewC. DimmockNewO. Wickstrom StumerNew
Centers
B. Mbengue9 min · TR
UTSA
Guards
D. Hayes31 minJ. Kelly27 min · TRD. Williams22 min · TRP. Turner20 min · TRI. Coleman19 min · TRS. Eberwein19 min · TR
Forwards
A. Smith5 min · TRC. OkpukparaNewM. BroxtonNewJ. PetersonNewK. TaylorNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DENUTSA
Scoring
80.3 #61Points per game67.3 #329
1.16 #53Points per possession0.96 #348
69.4 #151Pace (possessions)69.6 #142
Shooting
53.6 #79Effective FG%44.8 #360
36.8 #323-point %29.2 #351
38.6 #1993-point attempt rate41.3 #143
34.1 #203Free throw rate29.5 #320
Possessions
14.2 #30Turnover rate17.4 #231
29.8 #213Offensive rebound rate30.2 #191
11.2 #327Assists per game10.1 #357
Defense
84.0 #357Points allowed82.9 #345
1.21 #360Points allowed per possession1.20 #356
56.0 #344Opponent effective FG%53.3 #277
36.7 #338Opponent 3-point %35.1 #251
13.0 #355Turnovers forced14.7 #309
67.2 #291Defensive rebound rate61.3 #363
4.5 #356Steals per game6.3 #203
1.9 #348Blocks per game4.3 #52
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Denver

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs North Dakota67–83
  • L@ Oral Roberts80–102
  • Wvs St Thomas82–80
  • Wvs South Dakota90–70
  • L@ Omaha76–83

A week or more of rest.

UTSA

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 1-17 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Rice71–80
  • Lvs Wichita St67–84
  • Lvs East Carolina81–82
  • L@ Tulsa74–100
  • Lvs FAU52–60

A week or more of rest.