Queens University Royals at Baylor Bears: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 9, 8:00 PM ETFoster Pavilion · at Baylor

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Queens University Royals and Baylor
QUC	This season	BAY
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BAY 92–72 · win probability BAY 96%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 164.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BAY has more of the edges

QUC 0, BAY 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BAYBig

BAY offense vs QUC defense

Offense 29th of 366 against a defense 331st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

QUC has played the 194th-hardest schedule, BAY the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BAYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: QUC 30.2%, BAY 36.9%. Defensive: QUC 66.4%, BAY 68.7%

BAYSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: QUC 35.4, BAY 34.1. Allowed: QUC 38.1, BAY 30.1

BAYSmall

QUC offense vs BAY defense

Offense 102nd of 366 against a defense 45th, on the model’s ratings

BAYSmall

Home court

BAY at home. This season: BAY 0-0 at home, QUC 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: QUC plays 71.2 a game (65th fastest), BAY 69.3 (161st). Faster games mean more points

BAYSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: QUC 0%, BAY 26%. Transfers in: QUC 0, BAY 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: QUC 14.8%, BAY 16.2%. Forced: QUC 15.1%, BAY 15.9%

Even

Three-pointers

QUC hits 35.7% and allows 36.5%; BAY hits 33.9% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 46.5% and 39.6% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: QUC 56.4 and allows 54.6; BAY 53.4 and allows 52.4

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	BAY -20.4	—
Total	—	164.3	—
Projected score	—	QUC 71.9 · BAY 92.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BAY -12.0	—
1H total	76.7	—
1H projected score	QUC 32.3 · BAY 44.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
QUC LLWWL	15-19	44%	5-11	—
BAY LWLWL	14-19	42%	7-9	—

Venue/role: QUC away; BAY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
QUC UUOOO	22-12	65%	20-14
BAY UOOUU	18-15	55%	16-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
QUC	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
BAY	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Queens University Royals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 14	@ SHU	W81–64WU

Baylor

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Queens University Royals

34 games played

Straight up

20-14

59% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-12

65% overs · avg +6.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1459%

L L L W W L L W W L L L W W W W W W W L L L W W L W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1944%

L L W W L L W W W L L L L W W L W L W L L L W W L W L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

22-1265%

U O O U O O O O O O O U O O U U U O U U O U O U O O O O O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIN	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 8	@VILL	L 74-94	+17.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	@DUQ	L 81-87	+12.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	vsSHU	W 81-64	-5.5	W +11.5	165.5	U 145
Nov 20	vsUNCG	W 101-94	-7.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 195
Nov 23	@FUR	L 79-90	+8.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 28	@UVA	L 69-94	+25.5	W +0.5	160.5	O 163
Dec 3	vsGWEB	W 107-74	-14.5	W +18.5	161.5	O 181
Dec 12	vsSCST	W 102-78	-18.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 14	@WAKE	L 73-111	+18.5	L −19.5	165.5	O 184
Dec 16	@ARK	L 80-108	+23.5	L −4.5	169.5	O 188
Dec 29	@AUB	L 65-106	+25.5	L −15.5	171.5	U 171
Jan 1	vsEKU	W 91-89	-4.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsBELL	W 98-76	-7.5	W +14.5	169.5	O 174
Jan 8	@JAX	W 77-51	-4.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 128
Jan 10	@UNF	W 89-82	-11.5	L −4.5	173.5	U 171
Jan 15	@FGCU	W 85-74	+1.5	W +12.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 17	@STET	W 87-81	-10.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 168
Jan 21	vsUNA	W 87-62	-12.5	W +12.5	162.5	U 149
Jan 24	@WGA	L 66-74	-7.5	L −15.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 28	vsCARK	L 90-100	-5.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 190
Jan 31	@BELL	L 75-78	-5.5	L −8.5	163.5	U 153
Feb 5	vsJAX	W 93-84	-8.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 177
Feb 7	vsUNF	W 91-72	-15.5	W +3.5	178.5	U 163
Feb 11	vsAPSU	L 87-95	-2.5	L −10.5	161.5	O 182
Feb 14	vsLIP	W 87-81	-3.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 168
Feb 18	@UNA	W 85-78	-8.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 163
Feb 21	vsWGA	W 91-84	-11.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 175
Feb 25	@EKU	W 96-79	-2.5	W +14.5	165.5	O 175
Feb 28	@CARK	L 79-84	+2.5	L −2.5	163.5	U 163
Mar 6	vsWGA	W 71-63	-8.5	L −0.5	164.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsAPSU	W 90-83	+2.5	W +9.5	161.5	O 173
Mar 8	vsCARK	W 98-93	+1.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 191
Mar 20	vsPUR	L 71-104	+25.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−3.5

VILL

L 74-94

−2.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+6.5

SHU

W 81-64

+11.5

UNCG

W 101-94

−0.5

FUR

L 79-90

−2.5

UVA

L 69-94

+0.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+18.5

SCST

W 102-78

+5.5

WAKE

L 73-111

−19.5

ARK

L 80-108

−4.5

AUB

L 65-106

−15.5

EKU

W 91-89

−2.5

BELL

W 98-76

+14.5

JAX

W 77-51

+21.5

UNF

W 89-82

−4.5

FGCU

W 85-74

+12.5

STET

W 87-81

−4.5

UNA

W 87-62

+12.5

WGA

L 66-74

−15.5

CARK

L 90-100

−15.5

BELL

L 75-78

−8.5

JAX

W 93-84

+0.5

UNF

W 91-72

+3.5

APSU

L 87-95

−10.5

LIP

W 87-81

+2.5

UNA

W 85-78

−1.5

WGA

W 91-84

−4.5

EKU

W 96-79

+14.5

CARK

L 79-84

−2.5

WGA

W 71-63

−0.5

APSU

W 90-83

+9.5

CARK

W 98-93

+6.5

PUR

L 71-104

−7.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−8.5

VILL

L 74-94

+17.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+5.5

SHU

W 81-64

−20.5

UNCG

W 101-94

+44.5

FUR

L 79-90

+15.5

UVA

L 69-94

+2.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+19.5

SCST

W 102-78

+22.5

WAKE

L 73-111

+18.5

ARK

L 80-108

+18.5

AUB

L 65-106

−0.5

EKU

W 91-89

+15.5

BELL

W 98-76

+4.5

JAX

W 77-51

−26.5

UNF

W 89-82

−2.5

FGCU

W 85-74

−7.5

STET

W 87-81

+5.5

UNA

W 87-62

−13.5

WGA

L 66-74

−22.5

CARK

L 90-100

+31.5

BELL

L 75-78

−10.5

JAX

W 93-84

+30.5

UNF

W 91-72

−15.5

APSU

L 87-95

+20.5

LIP

W 87-81

+2.5

UNA

W 85-78

+6.5

WGA

W 91-84

+13.5

EKU

W 96-79

+9.5

CARK

L 79-84

−0.5

WGA

W 71-63

−30.5

APSU

W 90-83

+11.5

CARK

W 98-93

+33.5

PUR

L 71-104

+15.5

over 22under 12avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Baylor

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-15

55% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W W W W L W W L W W W L L L W L L L L W W L L L L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

L W L W L W L L W W W L L L W L L L L W W W L L L L W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1555%

O U O O O O O U O O O U U U O U O O U U U U O U O U O O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsRGV	W 96-81	-24.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 177
Nov 9	vsWASH	W 78-69	-6.5	W +2.5	156.5	U 147
Nov 14	vsTAR	W 94-81	-23.5	L −10.5	149.5	O 175
Nov 24	vsCREI	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 155
Nov 25	vsSJU	L 81-96	+5.5	L −9.5	159.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsSDSU	W 91-81	-2.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 172
Dec 2	vsSAC	W 110-88	-29.5	L −7.5	158.5	O 198
Dec 6	@MEM	L 71-78	-3.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 149
Dec 10	vsNORF	W 97-67	-26.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 164
Dec 19	vsALCN	W 113-56	-35.5	W +21.5	160.5	O 169
Dec 21	vsSOU	W 111-67	-26.5	W +17.5	169.5	O 178
Jan 3	@TCU	L 63-69	+2.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 132
Jan 7	vsISU	L 60-70	+3.5	L −6.5	155.5	U 130
Jan 10	vsHOU	L 55-77	+2.5	L −19.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 13	@OKST	W 94-79	-1.5	W +13.5	165.5	O 173
Jan 16	@KU	L 62-80	+7.5	L −10.5	156.5	U 142
Jan 20	vsTTU	L 73-92	+1.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 165
Jan 24	vsTCU	L 90-97	-4.5	L −11.5	147.5	O 187
Jan 28	@CIN	L 57-67	+3.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 124
Jan 31	@WVU	W 63-53	+2.5	W +12.5	139.5	U 116
Feb 4	vsCOLO	W 86-67	-7.5	W +11.5	155.5	U 153
Feb 7	@ISU	L 69-72	+14.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 141
Feb 10	vsBYU	L 94-99	+3.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 193
Feb 14	vsLOU	L 71-82	+7.5	L −3.5	162.5	U 153
Feb 17	@KSU	L 74-90	-3.5	L −19.5	159.5	O 164
Feb 21	vsASU	W 73-68	-8.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 141
Feb 24	vsARIZ	L 80-87	+7.5	W +0.5	155.5	O 167
Feb 28	@UCF	W 87-86	+1.5	W +2.5	159.5	O 173
Mar 4	@HOU	L 64-77	+12.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 141
Mar 7	vsUTAH	W 101-75	-13.5	W +12.5	148.5	O 176
Mar 10	vsASU	L 79-83	-5.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 162
Apr 1	vsMINN	W 67-48	-3.5	W +15.5	146.5	U 115
Apr 4	vsOU	L 69-82	-1.5	L −14.5	159.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RGV

W 96-81

−9.5

WASH

W 78-69

+2.5

TAR

W 94-81

−10.5

CREI

W 81-74

+3.5

SJU

L 81-96

−9.5

SDSU

W 91-81

+7.5

SAC

W 110-88

−7.5

MEM

L 71-78

−10.5

NORF

W 97-67

+3.5

ALCN

W 113-56

+21.5

SOU

W 111-67

+17.5

TCU

L 63-69

−3.5

ISU

L 60-70

−6.5

HOU

L 55-77

−19.5

OKST

W 94-79

+13.5

L 62-80

−10.5

TTU

L 73-92

−17.5

TCU

L 90-97

−11.5

CIN

L 57-67

−6.5

WVU

W 63-53

+12.5

COLO

W 86-67

+11.5

ISU

L 69-72

+11.5

BYU

L 94-99

−1.5

LOU

L 71-82

−3.5

KSU

L 74-90

−19.5

ASU

W 73-68

−3.5

ARIZ

L 80-87

+0.5

UCF

W 87-86

+2.5

HOU

L 64-77

−0.5

UTAH

W 101-75

+12.5

ASU

L 79-83

−9.5

MINN

W 67-48

+15.5

L 69-82

−14.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RGV

W 96-81

+22.5

WASH

W 78-69

−9.5

TAR

W 94-81

+25.5

CREI

W 81-74

+0.5

SJU

L 81-96

+17.5

SDSU

W 91-81

+23.5

SAC

W 110-88

+39.5

MEM

L 71-78

−9.5

NORF

W 97-67

+15.5

ALCN

W 113-56

+8.5

SOU

W 111-67

+8.5

TCU

L 63-69

−22.5

ISU

L 60-70

−25.5

HOU

L 55-77

−10.5

OKST

W 94-79

+7.5

L 62-80

−14.5

TTU

L 73-92

+10.5

TCU

L 90-97

+39.5

CIN

L 57-67

−21.5

WVU

W 63-53

−23.5

COLO

W 86-67

−2.5

ISU

L 69-72

−10.5

BYU

L 94-99

+34.5

LOU

L 71-82

−9.5

KSU

L 74-90

+4.5

ASU

W 73-68

−16.5

ARIZ

L 80-87

+11.5

UCF

W 87-86

+13.5

HOU

L 64-77

−2.5

UTAH

W 101-75

+27.5

ASU

L 79-83

+9.5

MINN

W 67-48

−31.5

L 69-82

−8.5

over 18under 15avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

QUC84.4 #16

BAY80.4 #59

Points per possession

QUC1.19 #25

BAY1.16 #51

Pace (possessions)

QUC71.2 #65

BAY69.3 #161

Shooting

Effective FG%

QUC56.4 #15

BAY53.4 #84

3-point %

QUC35.7 #74

BAY33.9 #179

3-point attempt rate

QUC46.5 #38

BAY39.6 #181

Free throw rate

QUC35.4 #167

BAY34.1 #202

Possessions

Turnover rate

QUC14.8 #54

BAY16.2 #153

Offensive rebound rate

QUC30.2 #190

BAY36.9 #18

Assists per game

QUC16.0 #49

BAY14.8 #96

Defense

Points allowed

QUC83.8 #355

BAY76.9 #238

Points allowed per possession

QUC1.17 #346

BAY1.11 #248

Opponent effective FG%

QUC54.6 #319

BAY52.4 #237

Opponent 3-point %

QUC36.5 #325

BAY34.8 #240

Turnovers forced

QUC15.1 #276

BAY15.9 #226

Defensive rebound rate

QUC66.4 #308

BAY68.7 #219

Steals per game

QUC6.0 #238

BAY6.3 #198

Blocks per game

QUC2.9 #236

BAY3.9 #85

QUC		BAY
Scoring
84.4 #16	Points per game	80.4 #59
1.19 #25	Points per possession	1.16 #51
71.2 #65	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #161
Shooting
56.4 #15	Effective FG%	53.4 #84
35.7 #74	3-point %	33.9 #179
46.5 #38	3-point attempt rate	39.6 #181
35.4 #167	Free throw rate	34.1 #202
Possessions
14.8 #54	Turnover rate	16.2 #153
30.2 #190	Offensive rebound rate	36.9 #18
16.0 #49	Assists per game	14.8 #96
Defense
83.8 #355	Points allowed	76.9 #238
1.17 #346	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #248
54.6 #319	Opponent effective FG%	52.4 #237
36.5 #325	Opponent 3-point %	34.8 #240
15.1 #276	Turnovers forced	15.9 #226
66.4 #308	Defensive rebound rate	68.7 #219
6.0 #238	Steals per game	6.3 #198
2.9 #236	Blocks per game	3.9 #85

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Queens University Royals

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Purdue71–104
Wvs C Arkansas98–93
Wvs Austin Peay90–83
Wvs West Georgia71–63
L@ C Arkansas79–84

A week or more of rest.

Baylor

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oklahoma69–82
Wvs Minnesota67–48
Lvs Arizona St79–83
Wvs Utah101–75
L@ Houston64–77

A week or more of rest.

Queens University Royals at Baylor Bears

What could decide it: BAY has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Queens University Royals

Baylor

Matchup stats

Queens University Royals

Baylor