1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 9
  3. SEMO @ SIU
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 9

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Southern Illinois Salukis

Banterra Center · at S Illinois
#306SEMOSE Missouri
@
#195SIUS Illinois
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SEMOThis seasonSIU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SIU 77–68 · win probability SIU 79%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 144.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SIU has more of the edges

SEMO 0, SIU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
SEMO has played the 351st-hardest schedule, SIU the 139th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SIUBig
SEMO offense vs SIU defense
Offense 312th of 366 against a defense 181st, on the model’s ratings
SIUSmall
SIU offense vs SEMO defense
Offense 227th of 366 against a defense 284th, on the model’s ratings
SIUSmall
Home court
SIU at home. This season: SIU 0-0 at home, SEMO 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SEMO 29.6%, SIU 30.9%. Defensive: SEMO 71.8%, SIU 72.7%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SEMO 38.8, SIU 31.3. Allowed: SEMO 48.0, SIU 31.4
Even
Three-pointers
SEMO hits 30.9% and allows 33.1%; SIU hits 27.8% and allows 30.4%. Threes are 36.0% and 29.2% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SEMO 49.8 and allows 48.8; SIU 49.1 and allows 49.0
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: SEMO plays 70.2 a game (109th fastest), SIU 70.6 (91st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SEMO 26%, SIU 22%. Transfers in: SEMO 1, SIU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SEMO 16.8%, SIU 17.1%. Forced: SEMO 18.1%, SIU 18.5%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SIU -9.4—
Total—144.3—
Projected score—SEMO 67.5 · SIU 76.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSIU -5.4—
1H total67.5—
1H projected scoreSEMO 31 · SIU 36.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: SE Missouri 0, S Illinois 0, even 5
SE MissouriBetterS Illinois
G M. Bell8.6 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 69
Even
G J. Haynes7.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 71
G L. Blocker4.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 33
No call
G C. Hawkins1.1 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
G P. Farmer1.6 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 11
Even
F M. Pikaar1.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.3 ast Score 19
F D. Sutton TR3.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 63
No call
F D. Hill NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F T. Sadler0.2 pts · 0.1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
C J. Webber1.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
SE MissouriBetterS Illinois
SEMO offense312th of 366 · -10.0
SIUBig
SIU defense181st of 366 · -4.1
SEMO defense284th of 366 · -7.1
SIUSmall
SIU offense227th of 366 · -7.0
Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players
SIUSmall
Backcourt+0.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.0 · 2 players
SEMOSmall
Frontcourt-1.0 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestSEMO betterSIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SE Missouri
Guards
M. Bell22 minL. Blocker18 minP. Farmer9 minK. PruettNewF. WilliamsNewM. EavesNew
Forwards
D. Sutton13 min · TRT. Sadler3 minC. JewellNewD. CooperNewA. PerryNew
S Illinois
Guards
J. Haynes21 minC. Hawkins5 minB. McClureNewJ. FugateNewL. WalshNewJ. JacksonNew
Forwards
M. Pikaar11 minD. HillNewD. PauliukonisNewP. RanieriNewT. LaurNew
Centers
J. Webber7 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SEMOSIU
Scoring
73.2 #217Points per game72.7 #229
1.04 #267Points per possession1.03 #285
70.2 #109Pace (possessions)70.6 #91
Shooting
49.8 #244Effective FG%49.1 #286
30.9 #3243-point %27.8 #363
36.0 #2503-point attempt rate29.2 #355
38.8 #84Free throw rate31.3 #275
Possessions
16.8 #192Turnover rate17.1 #207
29.6 #218Offensive rebound rate30.9 #167
11.7 #306Assists per game13.3 #188
Defense
72.3 #112Points allowed70.5 #62
1.03 #58Points allowed per possession1.00 #25
48.8 #57Opponent effective FG%49.0 #70
33.1 #130Opponent 3-point %30.4 #17
18.1 #91Turnovers forced18.5 #74
71.8 #76Defensive rebound rate72.7 #44
6.4 #190Steals per game8.0 #38
3.6 #121Blocks per game3.4 #157
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SE Missouri

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 15-7 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Morehead St61–66
  • Wvs Lindenwood Lions68–66
  • Wvs Tennessee Tech89–73
  • Lvs Tennessee St71–79
  • W@ Little Rock70–65

A week or more of rest.

S Illinois

15-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Drake63–67
  • W@ Evansville81–67
  • Wvs Indiana St66–55
  • W@ Northern Iowa59–57
  • W@ Drake66–61

A week or more of rest.