New Hampshire Wildcats at Marquette Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 9, 7:30 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Marquette

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: New Hampshire and Marquette
UNH	This season	MARQ
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MARQ 88–61 · win probability MARQ 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MARQ has more of the edges

UNH 1, MARQ 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MARQBig

UNH offense vs MARQ defense

Offense 300th of 366 against a defense 36th, on the model’s ratings

MARQBig

MARQ offense vs UNH defense

Offense 46th of 366 against a defense 255th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

UNH has played the 236th-hardest schedule, MARQ the 37th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MARQBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNH 46.7 and allows 53.5; MARQ 50.5 and allows 50.6

MARQSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNH 16.5%, MARQ 16.1%. Forced: UNH 15.8%, MARQ 19.3%

MARQSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNH 28.5, MARQ 32.8. Allowed: UNH 35.8, MARQ 32.0

UNHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNH 25.7%, MARQ 29.7%. Defensive: UNH 73.1%, MARQ 65.3%

MARQSmall

Three-pointers

UNH hits 30.5% and allows 34.3%; MARQ hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 43.1% and 42.2% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: UNH plays 68.9 a game (186th fastest), MARQ 70.9 (79th). Faster games mean more points

MARQSmall

Home court

MARQ at home. This season: MARQ 0-0 at home, UNH 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNH 47%, MARQ 64%. Transfers in: UNH 3, MARQ 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MARQ -27.4	—
Total	—	148.9	—
Projected score	—	UNH 60.7 · MARQ 88.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MARQ -16.2	—
1H total	69.6	—
1H projected score	UNH 26.7 · MARQ 42.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNH LLLWL	12-16	43%	8-9	—
MARQ WLWWL	13-19	41%	7-10	—

Venue/role: UNH away; MARQ home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNH UUOOO	15-13	54%	7-21
MARQ UUUUO	15-17	47%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNH	1-9 10%	1-9 10%	6-4 60%
MARQ	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Hampshire

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs DART	L68–69WU

Marquette

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs MSST	L55–58WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNH 0–1 MARQMARQ leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UNH 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2021-22	UNH 70 @ MARQ 75	MARQ -13	UNH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

New Hampshire

28 games played

Straight up

7-21

25% wins

Against the spread

12-16

43% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-13

54% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2125%

L L L L L L L W W L L L L L W W W W L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1643%

L W W L L W W W L W W L L W W L W W L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1354%

U O U O U U U O U O U O O O U O O U O U O O U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLEM	L 38-88	+29.5	L −20.5	146.5	U 126
Nov 9	@HARV	L 75-86	+15.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 15	@GMU	L 44-61	+24.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 105
Nov 18	@PROV	L 66-98	+29.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsBRWN	L 47-59	+5.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 106
Nov 30	@FAIR	L 68-72	+9.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 3	@DART	L 68-69	+8.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsBU	W 88-82	+5.5	W +11.5	134.5	O 170
Dec 17	vsSTO	W 59-58	-3.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 117
Dec 21	@SLU	L 79-93	+34.5	W +20.5	157.5	O 172
Dec 30	@NEB	L 55-86	+31.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 3	vsUVM	L 61-80	+7.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 8	@NJIT	L 76-80	-2.5	L −6.5	137.5	O 156
Jan 10	@UMBC	L 74-75	+6.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 19	@ME	W 65-48	+1.5	W +18.5	129.5	U 113
Jan 22	vsBING	W 88-82	-9.5	L −3.5	135.5	O 170
Jan 24	vsUALB	W 80-72	-2.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 152
Jan 29	vsUML	W 66-61	-3.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 31	@BRY	L 84-92	+1.5	L −6.5	131.5	O 176
Feb 7	@UVM	L 57-80	+9.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 12	vsNJIT	L 70-76	-2.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 146
Feb 14	vsUMBC	L 63-85	+2.5	L −19.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 19	@UML	L 56-78	+3.5	L −18.5	151.5	U 134
Feb 21	vsME	L 58-61	-3.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 119
Feb 26	@BING	L 63-65	-2.5	L −4.5	141.5	U 128
Feb 28	@UALB	L 61-84	+3.5	L −19.5	138.5	O 145
Mar 3	vsBRY	W 88-83	-2.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 171
Mar 7	@UMBC	L 69-84	+12.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLEM

L 38-88

−20.5

HARV

L 75-86

+4.5

GMU

L 44-61

+7.5

PROV

L 66-98

−2.5

BRWN

L 47-59

−6.5

FAIR

L 68-72

+5.5

DART

L 68-69

+7.5

W 88-82

+11.5

STO

W 59-58

−2.5

SLU

L 79-93

+20.5

NEB

L 55-86

+0.5

UVM

L 61-80

−11.5

NJIT

L 76-80

−6.5

UMBC

L 74-75

+5.5

W 65-48

+18.5

BING

W 88-82

−3.5

UALB

W 80-72

+5.5

UML

W 66-61

+1.5

BRY

L 84-92

−6.5

UVM

L 57-80

−13.5

NJIT

L 70-76

−8.5

UMBC

L 63-85

−19.5

UML

L 56-78

−18.5

L 58-61

−6.5

BING

L 63-65

−4.5

UALB

L 61-84

−19.5

BRY

W 88-83

+2.5

UMBC

L 69-84

−2.5

covered 12didn’t cover 16avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLEM

L 38-88

−20.5

HARV

L 75-86

+13.5

GMU

L 44-61

−39.5

PROV

L 66-98

+2.5

BRWN

L 47-59

−30.5

FAIR

L 68-72

−7.5

DART

L 68-69

−10.5

W 88-82

+35.5

STO

W 59-58

−21.5

SLU

L 79-93

+14.5

NEB

L 55-86

−5.5

UVM

L 61-80

+1.5

NJIT

L 76-80

+18.5

UMBC

L 74-75

+5.5

W 65-48

−16.5

BING

W 88-82

+34.5

UALB

W 80-72

+14.5

UML

W 66-61

−19.5

BRY

L 84-92

+44.5

UVM

L 57-80

−1.5

NJIT

L 70-76

+0.5

UMBC

L 63-85

+1.5

UML

L 56-78

−17.5

L 58-61

−16.5

BING

L 63-65

−13.5

UALB

L 61-84

+6.5

BRY

W 88-83

+35.5

UMBC

L 69-84

+10.5

over 15under 13avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marquette

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W L W L L W L W L L L L L L W L L L W L W L W L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1941%

W L L W L L L W L L L L L L W L W L L L L W W W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O O U O U O U O O U U U O U U O O O O O U U U O O U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUALB	W 80-53	-24.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 5	vsSOU	W 100-82	-24.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 9	vsIU	L 77-100	+3.5	L −19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsLR	W 89-49	-21.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMD	L 82-89	-8.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 171
Nov 19	vsDAY	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsCMU	W 85-71	-25.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsOU	L 74-75	+1.5	W +0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsVAL	W 75-72	-17.5	L −14.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 6	@WIS	L 76-96	+11.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 172
Dec 13	@PUR	L 59-79	+16.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 138
Dec 17	vsGTWN	L 69-78	-6.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 20	@CREI	L 63-84	+6.5	L −14.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 30	vsHALL	L 73-79	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 4	@CONN	L 57-73	+17.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 7	vsXAV	W 66-65	-5.5	L −4.5	157.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsVILL	L 73-76	+3.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 149
Jan 13	@SJU	L 68-92	+15.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 16	@DEP	L 75-80	+2.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 19	vsPROV	W 105-104	-2.5	L −1.5	167.5	O 209
Jan 23	@BTLR	L 76-87	+5.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 163
Jan 27	vsCREI	W 86-62	+1.5	W +25.5	154.5	U 148
Jan 31	@HALL	L 64-69	+6.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 133
Feb 7	vsBTLR	W 70-55	-3.5	W +11.5	155.5	U 125
Feb 10	@VILL	L 74-77	+9.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 14	@XAV	L 88-96	+1.5	L −6.5	157.5	O 184
Feb 18	vsSJU	L 70-76	+8.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 146
Feb 24	@GTWN	W 76-60	+2.5	W +18.5	150.5	U 136
Mar 1	vsDEP	L 51-62	-4.5	L −15.5	139.5	U 113
Mar 4	@PROV	W 78-56	+3.5	W +25.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsCONN	W 68-62	+9.5	W +15.5	143.5	U 130
Mar 11	vsXAV	L 87-89	-4.5	L −6.5	157.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

+2.5

SOU

W 100-82

−6.5

L 77-100

−19.5

W 89-49

+18.5

L 82-89

−15.5

DAY

L 71-77

−12.5

CMU

W 85-71

−11.5

L 74-75

+0.5

VAL

W 75-72

−14.5

WIS

L 76-96

−8.5

PUR

L 59-79

−3.5

GTWN

L 69-78

−15.5

CREI

L 63-84

−14.5

HALL

L 73-79

−7.5

CONN

L 57-73

+1.5

XAV

W 66-65

−4.5

VILL

L 73-76

+0.5

SJU

L 68-92

−8.5

DEP

L 75-80

−2.5

PROV

W 105-104

−1.5

BTLR

L 76-87

−5.5

CREI

W 86-62

+25.5

HALL

L 64-69

+1.5

BTLR

W 70-55

+11.5

VILL

L 74-77

+6.5

XAV

L 88-96

−6.5

SJU

L 70-76

+2.5

GTWN

W 76-60

+18.5

DEP

L 51-62

−15.5

PROV

W 78-56

+25.5

CONN

W 68-62

+15.5

XAV

L 87-89

−6.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

−16.5

SOU

W 100-82

+26.5

L 77-100

+20.5

W 89-49

−17.5

L 82-89

+24.5

DAY

L 71-77

−3.5

CMU

W 85-71

+3.5

L 74-75

−13.5

VAL

W 75-72

+0.5

WIS

L 76-96

+11.5

PUR

L 59-79

−16.5

GTWN

L 69-78

−2.5

CREI

L 63-84

−4.5

HALL

L 73-79

+6.5

CONN

L 57-73

−14.5

XAV

W 66-65

−26.5

VILL

L 73-76

+2.5

SJU

L 68-92

+4.5

DEP

L 75-80

+9.5

PROV

W 105-104

+41.5

BTLR

L 76-87

+1.5

CREI

W 86-62

−6.5

HALL

L 64-69

−10.5

BTLR

W 70-55

−30.5

VILL

L 74-77

+6.5

XAV

L 88-96

+26.5

SJU

L 70-76

−11.5

GTWN

W 76-60

−14.5

DEP

L 51-62

−26.5

PROV

W 78-56

−27.5

CONN

W 68-62

−13.5

XAV

L 87-89

+18.5

over 15under 17avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Marquette has the better starters

Position by position: New Hampshire 0, Marquette 4, even 1

New HampshireBetterMarquette

G T. Bike7.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34

Even

G C. Porter TR11.2 pts · 3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 45

G E. Oliver-Bush TR3.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 7

MARQBig

G N. Minessale TR19.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 4.2 ast Score 97

F D. Poser6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 11

MARQBig

G N. James16.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.9 ast Score 99

F J. Squire5.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

MARQSmall

G A. Stevens7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 65

F D. McKenna TR3.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 47

MARQBig

F R. Parham12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 87

New HampshireBetterMarquette

UNH offense300th of 366 · -9.3

MARQBig

MARQ defense36th of 366 · +3.1

UNH defense255th of 366 · -6.7

MARQBig

MARQ offense46th of 366 · +4.2

Backcourt-3.5 · 2 players

MARQBig

Backcourt+8.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.5 · 3 players

MARQBig

Frontcourt+2.5 · 1 player

Bench-2.3 · 4 players

MARQBig

Bench+2.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUNH betterMARQ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

New Hampshire

Guards

T. Bike24 minE. Oliver-Bush16 min · TRM. Blackley2 minA. SquireNewJ. ColemanNewJ. FaumuinaNew

Forwards

D. Poser29 minJ. Squire27 minD. McKenna11 min · TRR. Zan8 min · TRJ. O'Neill6 minK. MyersNew

Centers

G. Xanthopoulos6 min

Marquette

Guards

C. Porter35 min · TRN. Minessale32 min · TRN. James29 minA. Stevens26 minE. JohnstonNewN. WalkerNew

Forwards

R. Parham29 minS. Fru22 min · TRD. Owens16 minC. Hamilton13 minM. Phillips8 minJ. Clark6 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNH66.6 #339

MARQ75.2 #160

Points per possession

UNH0.96 #347

MARQ1.06 #223

Pace (possessions)

UNH68.9 #186

MARQ70.9 #79

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNH46.7 #344

MARQ50.5 #215

3-point %

UNH30.5 #333

MARQ31.7 #297

3-point attempt rate

UNH43.1 #110

MARQ42.2 #133

Free throw rate

UNH28.5 #338

MARQ32.8 #243

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNH16.5 #166

MARQ16.1 #145

Offensive rebound rate

UNH25.7 #329

MARQ29.7 #216

Assists per game

UNH10.6 #348

MARQ15.5 #63

Defense

Points allowed

UNH76.4 #227

MARQ75.8 #213

Points allowed per possession

UNH1.11 #247

MARQ1.07 #125

Opponent effective FG%

UNH53.5 #282

MARQ50.6 #131

Opponent 3-point %

UNH34.3 #204

MARQ32.7 #104

Turnovers forced

UNH15.8 #227

MARQ19.3 #39

Defensive rebound rate

UNH73.1 #32

MARQ65.3 #331

Steals per game

UNH6.1 #222

MARQ9.3 #5

Blocks per game

UNH2.0 #345

MARQ3.1 #207

UNH		MARQ
Scoring
66.6 #339	Points per game	75.2 #160
0.96 #347	Points per possession	1.06 #223
68.9 #186	Pace (possessions)	70.9 #79
Shooting
46.7 #344	Effective FG%	50.5 #215
30.5 #333	3-point %	31.7 #297
43.1 #110	3-point attempt rate	42.2 #133
28.5 #338	Free throw rate	32.8 #243
Possessions
16.5 #166	Turnover rate	16.1 #145
25.7 #329	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #216
10.6 #348	Assists per game	15.5 #63
Defense
76.4 #227	Points allowed	75.8 #213
1.11 #247	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #125
53.5 #282	Opponent effective FG%	50.6 #131
34.3 #204	Opponent 3-point %	32.7 #104
15.8 #227	Turnovers forced	19.3 #39
73.1 #32	Defensive rebound rate	65.3 #331
6.1 #222	Steals per game	9.3 #5
2.0 #345	Blocks per game	3.1 #207

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

New Hampshire

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UMBC69–84
Wvs Bryant88–83
L@ UAlbany61–84
L@ Binghamton63–65
Lvs Maine58–61

A week or more of rest.

Marquette

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Xavier87–89
Wvs UConn68–62
W@ Providence78–56
Lvs DePaul51–62
W@ Georgetown76–60

A week or more of rest.

New Hampshire Wildcats at Marquette Golden Eagles

What could decide it: MARQ has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

New Hampshire

Marquette

Marquette has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

New Hampshire

Marquette