New Hampshire Wildcats at Dartmouth Big Green: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 7:00 PM ETLeede Arena · at Dartmouth

Final

#251DARTDartmouth69▲ winner

Closing lineDART -8.5✓ UNH covered by 7.5

Closing total147.5Under by 10.5

Season records: New Hampshire and Dartmouth
UNH	This season	DART
0-6	Record	1-3
3-3	ATS	1-3
2-4	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNH 68–79 DART · ✓ DART (84%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNH	34	34	68
DART	30	39	69

1st half: UNH 34, DART 30 (UNH by 4). The model had DART by 6.6 and a total of 68.5 (actual 64).

Team stats

UNH		DART
26-62 42%	Field goals	25-61 41%
4-17 24%	3-pointers	8-26 31%
12-16 75%	Free throws	11-15 73%
34 8 off	Rebounds	43 13 off
7	Assists	10
9	Steals	4
4	Blocks	5
8	Turnovers	14
15	Fouls	13
38	Points in paint	28
10	Fast-break points	7

Players

UNH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jack Graham G	34	5	3	1	2-8	0-4
Davide Poser F	32	6	5	1	2-6	1-3
John Squire F	28	6	3	1	2-4	0-0
KiJan Robinson G	24	10	2	0	5-11	0-2
Belal El Shakery F	22	7	5	1	3-8	0-1
Bench
Comeh Emuobor F	20	15	3	0	5-10	0-2
R.J. Kennedy G	17	12	4	0	4-9	2-3
Tyler Bike G	15	5	3	3	2-4	1-2
Giannos Xanthopoulos C	8	2	2	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Myles Blackley, Jon O'Neill, Antoni Siewruk, Nick Sanford, Dylan Saunders

DART	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Connor Amundsen G	33	8	2	1	2-8	2-5
Brandon Mitchell-Day F	30	15	8	3	6-13	1-3
Jayden Williams F	29	14	8	2	6-11	2-6
Jackson Munro F	26	3	7	3	1-6	1-4
Kareem Thomas G	26	18	4	1	7-9	0-1
Bench
Cameron McNamee G	25	4	4	0	1-8	0-4
Cam Hiatt G	24	7	3	0	2-5	2-3
Shanon Simango F	7	0	2	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Khai Lockwood, Anton Strelnikov, Tyler Garrett, Nikola Abusara, Patrick Tivnan Jr., Ben Brown

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DART -8.5	DART -11.3	DART +2.8	L UNH covered
Total	147.5	146.2	Under 1.3	W Under
Projected score	—	UNH 67.5 · DART 78.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DART -6.6	UNH -4.0
1H total	68.5	64
1H projected score	UNH 30.9 · DART 37.5	UNH 34 · DART 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNH WWLLW	3-3	50%	3-2	3-3
DART LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: UNH away, as underdog; DART home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNH OUOUU	2-4	33%	0-6
DART UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNHlast 6	0-6 0%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
DARTlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNH 0–2 DARTDART leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · DART has won the last 2 meetings · UNH 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2024-25	DART 69 @ UNH 65	UNH +2.5	DART W
Dec 6, 2023-24	UNH 64 @ DART 76	DART +3.5	DART W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

New Hampshire

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −13.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLEM	L 38-88	+29.5	L −20.5	146.5	U 126
Nov 9	@HARV	L 75-86	+15.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 15	@GMU	L 44-61	+24.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 105
Nov 18	@PROV	L 66-98	+29.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsBRWN	L 47-59	+5.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 106
Nov 30	@FAIR	L 68-72	+9.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLEM

L 38-88

−20.5

HARV

L 75-86

+4.5

GMU

L 44-61

+7.5

PROV

L 66-98

−2.5

BRWN

L 47-59

−6.5

FAIR

L 68-72

+5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLEM

L 38-88

−20.5

HARV

L 75-86

+13.5

GMU

L 44-61

−39.5

PROV

L 66-98

+2.5

BRWN

L 47-59

−30.5

FAIR

L 68-72

−7.5

over 2under 4avg −13.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Dartmouth

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsMRST	L 56-75	-1.5	L −20.5	138.5	U 131
Nov 12	@BRY	L 75-82	+1.5	L −5.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 16	vsAPP	L 77-85	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 162
Nov 29	@SPU	W 87-61	+3.5	W +29.5	144.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

L 56-75

−20.5

BRY

L 75-82

−5.5

APP

L 77-85

−6.5

SPU

W 87-61

+29.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

L 56-75

−7.5

BRY

L 75-82

+5.5

APP

L 77-85

+21.5

SPU

W 87-61

+3.5

over 3under 1avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

New Hampshire @ Dartmouth

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

New Hampshire

Dartmouth

New Hampshire

Dartmouth