App State Mountaineers at Dartmouth Big Green: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 16, 12:00 PM ETLeede Arena · at Dartmouth

#259APPApp State85▲ winner

Final

#251DARTDartmouth77final

Closing lineAPP -1.5✓ APP covered by 6.5

Closing total140.5Over by 21.5

Season records: App State and Dartmouth
APP	This season	DART
1-2	Record	0-2
2-1	ATS	0-2
1-2	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: APP 69–70 DART · ✗ DART (53%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
APP	41	44	85
DART	37	40	77

1st half: APP 41, DART 37 (APP by 4). The model had DART by 0.3 and a total of 65.5 (actual 78).

Team stats

APP		DART
32-61 52%	Field goals	21-49 43%
6-20 30%	3-pointers	13-29 45%
15-21 71%	Free throws	22-30 73%
34 11 off	Rebounds	28 8 off
12	Assists	15
10	Steals	6
3	Blocks	3
13	Turnovers	16
24	Fouls	20
50	Points in paint	16
11	Fast-break points	9

Players

APP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kasen Jennings G	34	21	4	1	8-14	3-7
Eren Banks G	32	16	7	2	7-10	1-3
Alonzo Dodd G	28	16	5	6	6-7	0-1
Luke Wilson C	27	13	6	0	4-9	0-0
Chad Moodie F	9	0	2	0	0-3	0-0
Bench
Andrin Njock F	26	6	3	0	2-4	0-2
Jason Clarke Jr. G	22	7	1	2	3-9	0-3
Jalen Tot G	18	6	2	1	2-5	2-4
Michael Marcus Jr. F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Dalyn Brandon, Brewer Carruth, Cameron O'Kelley, KJ Vasser, Jacari Brim, Ted Neal, Tre McKinnon, Luke Ledford, Grant Clayton

DART	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Connor Amundsen G	33	9	4	3	1-8	0-5
Jayden Williams F	31	8	6	2	3-9	2-5
Kareem Thomas G	30	21	1	3	4-7	3-3
Brandon Mitchell-Day F	26	12	8	3	4-10	2-5
Jackson Munro F	25	14	2	2	4-6	4-5
Bench
Ben Brown G	22	6	1	0	2-5	2-5
Nikola Abusara G	17	5	2	2	2-2	0-0
Patrick Tivnan Jr. F	11	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Cameron McNamee G	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Shanon Simango, Anton Strelnikov, Cam Hiatt, Tyler Garrett, Khai Lockwood

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	APP -1.5	DART -0.8	DART +2.3	L APP covered
Total	140.5	139.7	Under 0.8	L Over
Projected score	—	APP 69.4 · DART 70.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DART -0.3	APP -4.0
1H total	65.5	78
1H projected score	APP 32.6 · DART 32.9	APP 41 · DART 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	1-0
DART LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: APP away, as favorite; DART home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP OUU	1-2	33%	1-2
DART UO	1-1	50%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APPlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%
DARTlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

App State

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

L W W

2 straight covers2 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CMU	L 66-82	+1.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 9	vsNCCU	W 76-54	-10.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 130
Nov 11	@OSU	L 53-75	+23.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CMU

L 66-82

−14.5

NCCU

W 76-54

+11.5

OSU

L 53-75

+1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CMU

L 66-82

+5.5

NCCU

W 76-54

−6.5

OSU

L 53-75

−19.5

over 1under 2avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Dartmouth

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −13 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsMRST	L 56-75	-1.5	L −20.5	138.5	U 131
Nov 12	@BRY	L 75-82	+1.5	L −5.5	151.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

L 56-75

−20.5

BRY

L 75-82

−5.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −13 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

L 56-75

−7.5

BRY

L 75-82

+5.5

over 1under 1avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

App State Mountaineers at Dartmouth Big Green

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

App State

Dartmouth

App State

Dartmouth