Kansas City Roos at Southeast Missouri State Redhawks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 4:30 PM ETShow Me Center · at SE Missouri

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kansas City and SE Missouri
KC	This season	SEMO
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SEMO 77–69 · win probability SEMO 75%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SEMO has more of the edges

KC 0, SEMO 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SEMOBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: KC 45.8 and allows 56.3; SEMO 49.8 and allows 48.8

SEMOBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: KC 26.4%, SEMO 29.6%. Defensive: KC 64.1%, SEMO 71.8%

SEMOBig

Three-pointers

KC hits 28.4% and allows 37.5%; SEMO hits 30.9% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 36.8% and 36.0% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

KC has played the 235th-hardest schedule, SEMO the 351st. A record against a soft schedule means less

SEMOSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: KC 18.2%, SEMO 16.8%. Forced: KC 16.4%, SEMO 18.1%

SEMOSmall

Home court

SEMO at home. This season: SEMO 0-0 at home, KC 0-0 away

SEMOSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: KC 0%, SEMO 26%. Transfers in: KC 5, SEMO 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

KC offense vs SEMO defense

Offense 321st of 366 against a defense 284th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: KC plays 71.8 a game (45th fastest), SEMO 70.2 (109th). Faster games mean more points

Even

SEMO offense vs KC defense

Offense 312th of 366 against a defense 335th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: KC 29.2, SEMO 38.8. Allowed: KC 31.4, SEMO 48.0

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SEMO -7.7	—
Total	—	145.5	—
Projected score	—	KC 68.9 · SEMO 76.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SEMO -4.5	—
1H total	68.1	—
1H projected score	KC 31.8 · SEMO 36.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC LLLLL	5-23	18%	4-12	—
SEMO WLWLL	14-16	47%	5-7	—

Venue/role: KC away; SEMO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OOUOU	16-12	57%	1-27
SEMO UUOUU	13-17	43%	17-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	0-10 0%	0-10 0%	6-4 60%
SEMO	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kansas City

No more games listed yet.

SE Missouri

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

KC 1–1 SEMOSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · KC 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 30, 2024-25	KC 59 @ SEMO 80	SEMO +2.5	SEMO W
Nov 30, 2023-24	SEMO 44 @ KC 74	KC -7.5	KC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kansas City

28 games played

Straight up

1-27

4% wins

Against the spread

5-23

18% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-12

57% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-274%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-2318%

L L W L L L L L W W W L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1257%

O O U U U U U O U O O O U O O O O U U O O U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SIU	L 78-101	+12.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 11	vsIONA	L 91-105	+4.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 15	@TEX	L 55-71	+31.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 19	@TCU	L 45-81	+23.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 24	@LIN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 29	@WEB	L 61-82	+10.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsIDST	L 59-68	+5.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 127
Dec 6	@EWU	L 66-90	+9.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsWEB	L 60-64	+7.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 16	@OU	L 67-89	+30.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 18	@OKST	L 79-91	+27.5	W +15.5	161.5	O 170
Dec 31	@DEN	L 74-87	+9.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 161
Jan 3	@OMA	W 73-66	+8.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsNDSU	L 73-97	+9.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsUND	L 79-81	-1.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 15	@SDAK	L 83-99	+7.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 182
Jan 17	@SDST	L 62-90	+13.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 152
Jan 24	vsOMA	L 60-77	+4.5	L −12.5	148.5	U 137
Jan 28	vsDEN	L 61-69	+3.5	L −4.5	161.5	U 130
Feb 1	@STMN	L 64-99	+17.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	vsSDAK	L 75-82	+2.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 12	@ORU	L 60-69	+6.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 129
Feb 14	vsSTMN	L 64-104	+12.5	L −27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 19	@UND	L 70-85	+9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 155
Feb 21	@NDSU	L 59-95	+19.5	L −16.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 26	vsSDST	L 59-73	+12.5	L −1.5	152.5	U 132
Feb 28	vsORU	L 70-94	+3.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 164
Mar 4	vsORU	L 62-84	+8.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

−10.5

IONA

L 91-105

−9.5

TEX

L 55-71

+15.5

TCU

L 45-81

−12.5

LIN

L 67-80

−8.5

WEB

L 61-82

−10.5

IDST

L 59-68

−3.5

EWU

L 66-90

−14.5

WEB

L 60-64

+3.5

L 67-89

+8.5

OKST

L 79-91

+15.5

DEN

L 74-87

−3.5

OMA

W 73-66

+15.5

NDSU

L 73-97

−14.5

UND

L 79-81

−3.5

SDAK

L 83-99

−8.5

SDST

L 62-90

−14.5

OMA

L 60-77

−12.5

DEN

L 61-69

−4.5

STMN

L 64-99

−17.5

SDAK

L 75-82

−4.5

ORU

L 60-69

−2.5

STMN

L 64-104

−27.5

UND

L 70-85

−5.5

NDSU

L 59-95

−16.5

SDST

L 59-73

−1.5

ORU

L 70-94

−20.5

ORU

L 62-84

−13.5

covered 5didn’t cover 23avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

+37.5

IONA

L 91-105

+39.5

TEX

L 55-71

−33.5

TCU

L 45-81

−24.5

LIN

L 67-80

−5.5

WEB

L 61-82

−12.5

IDST

L 59-68

−10.5

EWU

L 66-90

+4.5

WEB

L 60-64

−26.5

L 67-89

+2.5

OKST

L 79-91

+8.5

DEN

L 74-87

+4.5

OMA

W 73-66

−9.5

NDSU

L 73-97

+25.5

UND

L 79-81

+13.5

SDAK

L 83-99

+25.5

SDST

L 62-90

+0.5

OMA

L 60-77

−11.5

DEN

L 61-69

−31.5

STMN

L 64-99

+11.5

SDAK

L 75-82

+0.5

ORU

L 60-69

−21.5

STMN

L 64-104

+13.5

UND

L 70-85

+4.5

NDSU

L 59-95

+5.5

SDST

L 59-73

−20.5

ORU

L 70-94

+14.5

ORU

L 62-84

−3.5

over 16under 12avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

SE Missouri

30 games played

Straight up

17-13

57% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1357%

L L L L W L L W L W W W W L L L W W W W W W L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L W L L W L L W L W L W W L L L W L L W W W L W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O O O O U U O U O O U U O U O U U U O U O O U U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SLU	L 67-92	+19.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 7	@MIZ	L 84-89	+25.5	W +20.5	157.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsSTMN	L 72-84	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 18	@IOWA	L 70-99	+23.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 169
Nov 25	vsCP	W 84-68	-1.5	W +14.5	170.5	U 152
Nov 26	@NAU	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 151
Nov 29	vsLIP	L 77-88	-3.5	L −14.5	153.5	O 165
Dec 6	@UTC	W 74-70	+3.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 144
Dec 18	@TNTC	L 74-85	-2.5	L −13.5	155.5	O 159
Dec 20	@TNST	W 91-82	-1.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 173
Jan 1	vsEIU	W 68-59	-12.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 3	vsWIU	W 73-50	-13.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 123
Jan 8	@USI	W 84-76	-7.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	@MORE	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 140
Jan 15	vsLIN	L 76-88	-6.5	L −18.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 17	vsSIUE	L 55-68	-9.5	L −22.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 20	vsUTM	W 66-50	-2.5	W +13.5	140.5	U 116
Jan 22	vsLR	W 70-65	-5.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 29	@WIU	W 78-74	-10.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 31	@EIU	W 77-59	-4.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 136
Feb 5	vsMORE	W 82-70	-7.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 7	vsUSI	W 90-65	-11.5	W +13.5	141.5	O 155
Feb 12	@SIUE	L 56-74	-1.5	L −19.5	137.5	U 130
Feb 14	@LIN	W 73-61	+1.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 134
Feb 17	@UTM	W 56-53	+2.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 109
Feb 21	@LR	W 70-65	-1.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 135
Feb 26	vsTNST	L 71-79	-2.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 150
Feb 28	vsTNTC	W 89-73	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 162
Mar 5	vsLIN	W 68-66	-3.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 6	vsMORE	L 61-66	-3.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

−5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+20.5

STMN

L 72-84

−9.5

IOWA

L 70-99

−5.5

W 84-68

+14.5

NAU

L 72-79

−4.5

LIP

L 77-88

−14.5

UTC

W 74-70

+7.5

TNTC

L 74-85

−13.5

TNST

W 91-82

+7.5

EIU

W 68-59

−3.5

WIU

W 73-50

+9.5

USI

W 84-76

+0.5

L 69-71

−7.5

LIN

L 76-88

−18.5

SIUE

L 55-68

−22.5

UTM

W 66-50

+13.5

W 70-65

−0.5

WIU

W 78-74

−6.5

EIU

W 77-59

+13.5

W 82-70

+4.5

USI

W 90-65

+13.5

SIUE

L 56-74

−19.5

LIN

W 73-61

+13.5

UTM

W 56-53

+5.5

W 70-65

+3.5

TNST

L 71-79

−10.5

TNTC

W 89-73

+8.5

LIN

W 68-66

−1.5

L 61-66

−8.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

+5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+15.5

STMN

L 72-84

+3.5

IOWA

L 70-99

+21.5

W 84-68

−18.5

NAU

L 72-79

−2.5

LIP

L 77-88

+11.5

UTC

W 74-70

−5.5

TNTC

L 74-85

+3.5

TNST

W 91-82

+21.5

EIU

W 68-59

−19.5

WIU

W 73-50

−24.5

USI

W 84-76

+13.5

L 69-71

−4.5

LIN

L 76-88

+9.5

SIUE

L 55-68

−16.5

UTM

W 66-50

−24.5

W 70-65

−10.5

WIU

W 78-74

+9.5

EIU

W 77-59

−2.5

W 82-70

+7.5

USI

W 90-65

+13.5

SIUE

L 56-74

−7.5

LIN

W 73-61

−20.5

UTM

W 56-53

−29.5

W 70-65

−8.5

TNST

L 71-79

−1.5

TNTC

W 89-73

+20.5

LIN

W 68-66

−14.5

L 61-66

−12.5

over 13under 17avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Kansas City 1, SE Missouri 1, even 3

Kansas CityBetterSE Missouri

G C. Daughtery TR10 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 45

SEMOSmall

G M. Bell8.6 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 69

G J. Smith TR9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 3 ast Score 43

Even

G L. Blocker4.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 33

G M. Samar TR4.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 28

KCSmall

G P. Farmer1.6 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 11

F S. Hartmann TR8.2 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

No call

F D. Sutton TR3.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 63

F A. Diop TR5.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 29

No call

F T. Sadler0.2 pts · 0.1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

Kansas CityBetterSE Missouri

KC offense321st of 366 · -10.5

Even

SEMO defense284th of 366 · -7.1

KC defense335th of 366 · -8.8

Even

SEMO offense312th of 366 · -10.0

Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players

SEMOSmall

Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

SEMOSmall

Frontcourt+0.0 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestKC betterSEMO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kansas City

Guards

C. Daughtery27 min · TRJ. Smith25 min · TRM. Samar16 min · TRE. MoskowitzNewD. JacksonNewC. LoveNew

Forwards

S. Hartmann24 min · TRA. Diop19 min · TRR. ButirinsNewJ. SickingNewA. BakhtadzeNewM. Bruce-McCrommonNew

SE Missouri

Guards

M. Bell22 minL. Blocker18 minP. Farmer9 minK. PruettNewF. WilliamsNewM. EavesNew

Forwards

D. Sutton13 min · TRT. Sadler3 minC. JewellNewD. CooperNewA. PerryNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

KC67.0 #334

SEMO73.2 #217

Points per possession

KC0.93 #361

SEMO1.04 #267

Pace (possessions)

KC71.8 #45

SEMO70.2 #109

Shooting

Effective FG%

KC45.8 #352

SEMO49.8 #244

3-point %

KC28.4 #360

SEMO30.9 #324

3-point attempt rate

KC36.8 #235

SEMO36.0 #250

Free throw rate

KC29.2 #330

SEMO38.8 #84

Possessions

Turnover rate

KC18.2 #282

SEMO16.8 #192

Offensive rebound rate

KC26.4 #314

SEMO29.6 #218

Assists per game

KC11.3 #324

SEMO11.7 #306

Defense

Points allowed

KC84.8 #359

SEMO72.3 #112

Points allowed per possession

KC1.18 #348

SEMO1.03 #58

Opponent effective FG%

KC56.3 #348

SEMO48.8 #57

Opponent 3-point %

KC37.5 #350

SEMO33.1 #130

Turnovers forced

KC16.4 #193

SEMO18.1 #91

Defensive rebound rate

KC64.1 #353

SEMO71.8 #76

Steals per game

KC6.4 #192

SEMO6.4 #190

Blocks per game

KC3.1 #195

SEMO3.6 #121

KC		SEMO
Scoring
67.0 #334	Points per game	73.2 #217
0.93 #361	Points per possession	1.04 #267
71.8 #45	Pace (possessions)	70.2 #109
Shooting
45.8 #352	Effective FG%	49.8 #244
28.4 #360	3-point %	30.9 #324
36.8 #235	3-point attempt rate	36.0 #250
29.2 #330	Free throw rate	38.8 #84
Possessions
18.2 #282	Turnover rate	16.8 #192
26.4 #314	Offensive rebound rate	29.6 #218
11.3 #324	Assists per game	11.7 #306
Defense
84.8 #359	Points allowed	72.3 #112
1.18 #348	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #58
56.3 #348	Opponent effective FG%	48.8 #57
37.5 #350	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #130
16.4 #193	Turnovers forced	18.1 #91
64.1 #353	Defensive rebound rate	71.8 #76
6.4 #192	Steals per game	6.4 #190
3.1 #195	Blocks per game	3.6 #121

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kansas City

1-27 in 2025-26 overall · 1-16 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oral Roberts62–84
Lvs Oral Roberts70–94
Lvs S Dakota St59–73
L@ N Dakota St59–95
L@ North Dakota70–85

A week or more of rest.

SE Missouri

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 15-7 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Morehead St61–66
Wvs Lindenwood Lions68–66
Wvs Tennessee Tech89–73
Lvs Tennessee St71–79
W@ Little Rock70–65

A week or more of rest.

Kansas City Roos at Southeast Missouri State Redhawks

What could decide it: SEMO has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kansas City

SE Missouri

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kansas City

SE Missouri