Omaha Mavericks at Kansas City Roos: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 24, 8:00 PM ETSwinney Center · at Kansas City · Conference game

#279OMAOmaha77▲ winner

Final

Closing lineOMA -4.5✓ OMA covered by 12.5

Closing total148.5Under by 11.5

Season records: Omaha and Kansas City
OMA	This season	KC
5-12	Record	1-16
6-11	ATS	5-12
9-8	O/U	10-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: OMA 76–73 KC · ✓ OMA (62%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
OMA	44	33	77
KC	34	26	60

1st half: OMA 44, KC 34 (OMA by 10). The model had OMA by 2.2 and a total of 69.9 (actual 78).

Team stats

OMA		KC
27-60 45%	Field goals	22-60 37%
8-25 32%	3-pointers	8-31 26%
15-22 68%	Free throws	8-15 53%
44 13 off	Rebounds	29 9 off
13	Assists	12
7	Steals	5
2	Blocks	6
17	Turnovers	15
15	Fouls	19
32	Points in paint	14
13	Fast-break points	4

Players

OMA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tony Osburn G	36	12	7	1	4-10	4-10
Paul Djobet F	31	23	11	4	8-14	1-3
Lance Waddles G	28	4	3	2	1-8	1-5
Grant Stubblefield G	28	12	2	4	5-6	0-1
Christian Richardson C	24	12	6	0	4-6	0-0
Bench
Kamryn Thomas F	23	7	6	0	2-7	1-3
Ja'Sean Glover G	16	0	2	2	0-2	0-1
Brock Scholl F	11	4	3	0	2-5	0-0
Valentino Simon F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Aidan Skradis G	1	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Khamani Cooper G	1	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Rob Matos, Isaac Ondekane, Deng Mayar, Benji Nelson, Julian Margrave

KC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chris Dockery F	32	10	7	3	4-7	2-3
CJ Evans G	27	6	0	2	3-8	0-3
Jayson Petty G	23	9	6	2	4-11	1-6
Karmello Branch G	23	3	1	1	1-6	1-4
Addarin Scott F	21	4	6	1	2-4	0-1
Bench
Kasheem Grady II G	28	15	2	1	4-10	2-6
Jamaria Clark G	19	8	0	1	2-5	2-5
Trey Booker-Lowery G	12	2	0	0	1-5	0-2
Jerome Palm F	9	0	3	1	0-2	0-1
Baba Mbengue C	6	3	2	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Kernan Bundy, Cory Curtis Jr., Max Sims, D'Andre Harrison, Jason Hilliard

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OMA -4.5	OMA -3.5	KC +1.0	L OMA covered
Total	148.5	149.3	Over 0.8	L Under
Projected score	—	OMA 76.3 · KC 72.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OMA -2.2	OMA -10.0
1H total	69.9	78
1H projected score	OMA 36 · KC 33.9	OMA 44 · KC 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OMA LWWWL	6-11	35%	4-5	1-3
KC WLLLL	5-12	29%	1-4	5-11

Venue/role: OMA away, as favorite; KC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OMA UOOUU	9-8	53%	5-12
KC UOOOO	10-7	59%	1-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OMA	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
KC	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

OMA 5–6 KCKC leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · OMA 7-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 3, 2025-26	KC 73 @ OMA 66	OMA -8.5	KC W
Mar 6, 2024-25	KC 61 vs OMA 70	OMA -4.5	OMA W
Feb 19, 2024-25	OMA 78 @ KC 66	KC -2.5	OMA W
Jan 8, 2024-25	KC 58 @ OMA 77	OMA -1.5	OMA W
Feb 24, 2023-24	OMA 58 @ KC 63	KC -3.5	KC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Omaha

17 games played

Straight up

5-12

29% wins

Against the spread

6-11

35% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-8

53% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-1229%

L L L W L L L L W W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-1135%

L W L L L L L L W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-853%

O U O O O O U U U O U O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMUR	L 77-85	+5.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 162
Nov 6	@ACU	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 144
Nov 9	@CSU	L 74-97	+14.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 171
Nov 15	vsSUU	W 90-85	-8.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 175
Nov 21	@LSU	L 73-99	+20.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 25	vsJMU	L 77-88	+1.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 165
Nov 26	@FIU	L 61-74	+4.5	L −8.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsUNCO	L 70-75	+3.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 145
Dec 6	@PRST	W 60-55	+12.5	W +17.5	144.5	U 115
Dec 20	@LAM	W 85-82	+5.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 167
Dec 28	@ORE	L 57-80	+21.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 137
Jan 1	@SDST	L 69-84	+9.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 3	vsKC	L 66-73	-8.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsUND	W 90-79	-5.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsNDSU	L 76-78	+5.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 17	@ORU	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 21	vsSDAK	L 64-68	-6.5	L −10.5	160.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MUR

L 77-85

−2.5

ACU

L 71-73

+2.5

CSU

L 74-97

−8.5

SUU

W 90-85

−3.5

LSU

L 73-99

−5.5

JMU

L 77-88

−9.5

FIU

L 61-74

−8.5

UNCO

L 70-75

−1.5

PRST

W 60-55

+17.5

LAM

W 85-82

+8.5

ORE

L 57-80

−1.5

SDST

L 69-84

−5.5

L 66-73

−15.5

UND

W 90-79

+5.5

NDSU

L 76-78

+3.5

ORU

W 73-62

+12.5

SDAK

L 64-68

−10.5

covered 6didn’t cover 11avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MUR

L 77-85

+8.5

ACU

L 71-73

−6.5

CSU

L 74-97

+17.5

SUU

W 90-85

+21.5

LSU

L 73-99

+8.5

JMU

L 77-88

+12.5

FIU

L 61-74

−22.5

UNCO

L 70-75

−12.5

PRST

W 60-55

−29.5

LAM

W 85-82

+25.5

ORE

L 57-80

−14.5

SDST

L 69-84

+0.5

L 66-73

−9.5

UND

W 90-79

+22.5

NDSU

L 76-78

+6.5

ORU

W 73-62

−14.5

SDAK

L 64-68

−28.5

over 9under 8avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas City

17 games played

Straight up

1-16

6% wins

Against the spread

5-12

29% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-7

59% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-166%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-1229%

L L W L L L L L W W W L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

10-759%

O O U U U U U O U O O O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SIU	L 78-101	+12.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 11	vsIONA	L 91-105	+4.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 15	@TEX	L 55-71	+31.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 19	@TCU	L 45-81	+23.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 24	@LIN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 29	@WEB	L 61-82	+10.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsIDST	L 59-68	+5.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 127
Dec 6	@EWU	L 66-90	+9.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsWEB	L 60-64	+7.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 16	@OU	L 67-89	+30.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 18	@OKST	L 79-91	+27.5	W +15.5	161.5	O 170
Dec 31	@DEN	L 74-87	+9.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 161
Jan 3	@OMA	W 73-66	+8.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsNDSU	L 73-97	+9.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsUND	L 79-81	-1.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 15	@SDAK	L 83-99	+7.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 182
Jan 17	@SDST	L 62-90	+13.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

−10.5

IONA

L 91-105

−9.5

TEX

L 55-71

+15.5

TCU

L 45-81

−12.5

LIN

L 67-80

−8.5

WEB

L 61-82

−10.5

IDST

L 59-68

−3.5

EWU

L 66-90

−14.5

WEB

L 60-64

+3.5

L 67-89

+8.5

OKST

L 79-91

+15.5

DEN

L 74-87

−3.5

OMA

W 73-66

+15.5

NDSU

L 73-97

−14.5

UND

L 79-81

−3.5

SDAK

L 83-99

−8.5

SDST

L 62-90

−14.5

covered 5didn’t cover 12avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

+37.5

IONA

L 91-105

+39.5

TEX

L 55-71

−33.5

TCU

L 45-81

−24.5

LIN

L 67-80

−5.5

WEB

L 61-82

−12.5

IDST

L 59-68

−10.5

EWU

L 66-90

+4.5

WEB

L 60-64

−26.5

L 67-89

+2.5

OKST

L 79-91

+8.5

DEN

L 74-87

+4.5

OMA

W 73-66

−9.5

NDSU

L 73-97

+25.5

UND

L 79-81

+13.5

SDAK

L 83-99

+25.5

SDST

L 62-90

+0.5

over 10under 7avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Omaha Mavericks at Kansas City Roos

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Omaha

Kansas City

Omaha

Kansas City