1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. SF @ FRES
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

San Francisco Dons at Fresno State Bulldogs

Save Mart Center · at Fresno St
#161SFSan Francisco
@
#174FRESFresno St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SFThis seasonFRES
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FRES 76–71 · win probability FRES 64%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

SF 2, FRES 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SFSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SF 31.4%, FRES 27.9%. Defensive: SF 71.0%, FRES 69.4%
SFSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SF 40.1, FRES 33.8. Allowed: SF 29.6, FRES 28.6
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: SF plays 67.3 a game (271st fastest), FRES 69.3 (156th). Faster games mean more points
FRESSmall
Home court
FRES at home. This season: FRES 0-0 at home, SF 0-0 away
FRESSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SF 15.9%, FRES 18.1%. Forced: SF 14.1%, FRES 18.2%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SF 51.3 and allows 50.8; FRES 50.6 and allows 51.5
Even
SF offense vs FRES defense
Offense 178th of 366 against a defense 190th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
SF hits 34.6% and allows 34.1%; FRES hits 32.1% and allows 30.7%. Threes are 46.1% and 40.9% of their shots
Even
FRES offense vs SF defense
Offense 176th of 366 against a defense 165th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SF 3%, FRES 0%. Transfers in: SF 3, FRES 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
SF has played the 98th-hardest schedule, FRES the 103rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FRES -4.1—
Total—147.0—
Projected score—SF 71.4 · FRES 75.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFRES -2.3—
1H total68.7—
1H projected scoreSF 33.2 · FRES 35.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: San Francisco 0, Fresno St 0, even 5
San FranciscoBetterFresno St
G A. Bashir TR2.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
G D. Lungu TR13.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 3 ast Not ranked
G A. Braccia0.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Candelino TR11.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 76
F B. Oosterbaan TR7.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 31
Even
G B. Amuneke TR2.1 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28
F N. Newbury NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F B. Henige TR4.9 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 38
C I. Diagne TR1.1 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
C B. Fall TR0.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
San FranciscoBetterFresno St
SF offense178th of 366 · -5.5
Even
FRES defense190th of 366 · -4.4
SF defense165th of 366 · -3.7
Even
FRES offense176th of 366 · -5.4
Backcourt-0.9 · 2 players
FRESSmall
Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.6 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestSF betterFRES betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
San Francisco
Guards
A. Bashir10 min · TRA. Braccia5 minW. FodeNewM. MageeNewY. VitlemNewD. BordonNew
Forwards
B. Oosterbaan25 min · TRN. NewburyNewA. TysonNewG. KnudsenNewD. WileyNewJ. PihtovsNew
Centers
I. Diagne7 min · TR
Fresno St
Guards
D. Lungu27 min · TRR. Candelino25 min · TRB. Amuneke8 min · TRN. ZulemieNewK. PerryNewQ. RhymesNew
Forwards
B. Henige20 min · TRR. ParsleyNewY. Kesse-BedaNewA. GrangerNewM. VuckovicNewC. SchroederNew
Centers
B. Fall5 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SFFRES
Scoring
73.9 #198Points per game72.3 #233
1.10 #131Points per possession1.04 #266
67.3 #271Pace (possessions)69.3 #156
Shooting
51.3 #184Effective FG%50.6 #206
34.6 #1403-point %32.1 #274
46.1 #453-point attempt rate40.9 #146
40.1 #59Free throw rate33.8 #218
Possessions
15.9 #129Turnover rate18.1 #277
31.4 #148Offensive rebound rate27.9 #272
13.6 #174Assists per game12.6 #247
Defense
73.8 #149Points allowed73.5 #142
1.09 #206Points allowed per possession1.06 #110
50.8 #143Opponent effective FG%51.5 #184
34.1 #187Opponent 3-point %30.7 #30
14.1 #331Turnovers forced18.2 #88
71.0 #105Defensive rebound rate69.4 #183
5.1 #332Steals per game6.7 #154
2.9 #238Blocks per game2.2 #331
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

San Francisco

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oregon St77–78
  • Wvs Portland82–65
  • W@ Pacific72–61
  • Lvs Santa Clara73–94
  • Lvs Gonzaga59–80

A week or more of rest.

Fresno St

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Colorado St63–67
  • L@ Grand Canyon60–85
  • Wvs San José St82–68
  • Lvs Boise St53–69
  • L@ Colorado St70–74

A week or more of rest.