1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. SIU @ LR
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Southern Illinois Salukis at Little Rock Trojans

Jack Stephens Center · at Little Rock
#195SIUS Illinois
@
#222LRLittle Rock
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SIUThis seasonLR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SIU 72–72 · win probability SIU 51%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 144.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SIU has more of the edges

SIU 4, LR 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
SIU has played the 139th-hardest schedule, LR the 347th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SIUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SIU 30.9%, LR 31.5%. Defensive: SIU 72.7%, LR 63.4%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: SIU plays 70.6 a game (91st fastest), LR 67.6 (248th). Faster games mean more points
SIUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SIU 49.1 and allows 49.0; LR 49.4 and allows 51.8
SIUSmall
LR offense vs SIU defense
Offense 238th of 366 against a defense 181st, on the model’s ratings
SIUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SIU 31.3, LR 27.7. Allowed: SIU 31.4, LR 33.1
LRSmall
Home court
LR at home. This season: LR 0-0 at home, SIU 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SIU 17.1%, LR 18.4%. Forced: SIU 18.5%, LR 18.6%
Even
Three-pointers
SIU hits 27.8% and allows 30.4%; LR hits 35.3% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 29.2% and 31.0% of their shots
Even
SIU offense vs LR defense
Offense 227th of 366 against a defense 208th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SIU 22%, LR 12%. Transfers in: SIU 0, LR 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SIU -0.2—
Total—144.4—
Projected score—SIU 72.3 · LR 72.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSIU -0.2—
1H total67.6—
1H projected scoreSIU 33.9 · LR 33.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Little Rock has the better starters

Position by position: S Illinois 0, Little Rock 1, even 4
S IllinoisBetterLittle Rock
G J. Haynes7.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 71
Even
G A. Clark TR15.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 62
G C. Hawkins1.1 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. King TR14 pts · 3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 46
F M. Pikaar1.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.3 ast Score 19
LRSmall
G T. Walters TR8.3 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37
F D. Hill NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F B. Hubbard TR16.1 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 80
C J. Webber1.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F T. Burgess7.4 pts · 3 reb · 1.2 ast Not ranked
S IllinoisBetterLittle Rock
SIU offense227th of 366 · -7.0
Even
LR defense208th of 366 · -5.2
SIU defense181st of 366 · -4.1
SIUSmall
LR offense238th of 366 · -7.3
Backcourt+0.1 · 2 players
SIUSmall
Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 3 players
LRSmall
Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-2.3 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestSIU betterLR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
S Illinois
Guards
J. Haynes21 minC. Hawkins5 minB. McClureNewJ. FugateNewL. WalshNewJ. JacksonNew
Forwards
M. Pikaar11 minD. HillNewD. PauliukonisNewP. RanieriNewT. LaurNew
Centers
J. Webber7 min
Little Rock
Guards
A. Clark33 min · TRJ. King32 min · TRT. Walters28 min · TRA. Economou6 min · TRT. LaceyNewJ. LynNew
Forwards
B. Hubbard29 min · TRT. Burgess24 minP. Amadou Kante14 min · TRA. Bamisile14 min · TRJ. Felt13 min · TRR. OselkaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SIULR
Scoring
72.7 #229Points per game68.9 #300
1.03 #285Points per possession1.02 #306
70.6 #91Pace (possessions)67.6 #248
Shooting
49.1 #286Effective FG%49.4 #273
27.8 #3633-point %35.3 #96
29.2 #3553-point attempt rate31.0 #339
31.3 #275Free throw rate27.7 #345
Possessions
17.1 #207Turnover rate18.4 #292
30.9 #167Offensive rebound rate31.5 #143
13.3 #188Assists per game13.4 #183
Defense
70.5 #62Points allowed74.2 #160
1.00 #25Points allowed per possession1.10 #217
49.0 #70Opponent effective FG%51.8 #199
30.4 #17Opponent 3-point %34.4 #211
18.5 #74Turnovers forced18.6 #71
72.7 #44Defensive rebound rate63.4 #357
8.0 #38Steals per game7.5 #77
3.4 #157Blocks per game4.4 #45
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

S Illinois

15-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Drake63–67
  • W@ Evansville81–67
  • Wvs Indiana St66–55
  • W@ Northern Iowa59–57
  • W@ Drake66–61

A week or more of rest.

Little Rock

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Lindenwood Lions62–72
  • Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles89–70
  • Lvs Morehead St70–76
  • Lvs SE Missouri65–70
  • Wvs UT Martin67–65

A week or more of rest.