1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. CARK @ COLO
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Central Arkansas Bears at Colorado Buffaloes

CU Events Center · at Colorado
#240CARKC Arkansas
@
#65COLOColorado
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CARKThis seasonCOLO
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COLO 86–68 · win probability COLO 94%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: COLO has more of the edges

CARK 2, COLO 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
COLOBig
COLO offense vs CARK defense
Offense 54th of 366 against a defense 241st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CARK has played the 241st-hardest schedule, COLO the 58th. A record against a soft schedule means less
COLOBig
CARK offense vs COLO defense
Offense 231st of 366 against a defense 80th, on the model’s ratings
CARKSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CARK 15.4%, COLO 14.7%. Forced: CARK 19.1%, COLO 15.2%
COLOSmall
Home court
COLO at home. This season: COLO 0-0 at home, CARK 0-0 away
CARKSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CARK 28.8%, COLO 29.0%. Defensive: CARK 72.6%, COLO 70.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CARK 62%, COLO 40%. Transfers in: CARK 2, COLO 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
CARK hits 35.5% and allows 35.2%; COLO hits 35.1% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 48.7% and 35.2% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: CARK 54.0 and allows 54.9; COLO 52.9 and allows 52.6
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: CARK 31.2, COLO 36.6. Allowed: CARK 30.1, COLO 36.6
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: CARK plays 70.2 a game (105th fastest), COLO 71.0 (76th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—COLO -17.9—
Total—153.4—
Projected score—CARK 67.7 · COLO 85.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCOLO -10.5—
1H total71.7—
1H projected scoreCARK 30.6 · COLO 41.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Colorado has the better starters

Position by position: C Arkansas 0, Colorado 2, even 3
C ArkansasBetterColorado
G L. Moore9.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 28
COLOBig
G B. Hargress14.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.5 ast Score 93
G T. Robinson14.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
Even
F J. Neely TR17.7 pts · 11.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 96
G C. McCormick9.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
Even
F I. Niagu TR4.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42
G H. Beauchamp4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 8
No call
F D. Gomez TR5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
F M. Marable3.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 3
COLOBig
C N. Feddersen TR9 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 59
C ArkansasBetterColorado
CARK offense231st of 366 · -7.1
COLOBig
COLO defense80th of 366 · +0.3
CARK defense241st of 366 · -6.4
COLOBig
COLO offense54th of 366 · +3.2
Backcourt-2.6 · 4 players
COLOBig
Backcourt+3.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt-3.0 · 1 player
COLOBig
Frontcourt+5.3 · 4 players
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
Even
Bench-2.7 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestCARK betterCOLO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
C Arkansas
Guards
L. Moore30 minT. Robinson28 minC. McCormick23 minH. Beauchamp15 minO. Dehrmann3 minJ. Shulman3 min
Forwards
M. Marable21 minT. Anderson12 min · TRS. Saadi9 min · TRA. HoernerNew
Colorado
Guards
B. Hargress33 minJ. Sanders18 minJ. Holland18 minI. Inman10 minA. JonesNewR. PortelaNew
Forwards
J. Neely33 min · TRI. Niagu21 min · TRD. Gomez20 min · TRN. Randall1 minG. MalualNewC. HillNew
Centers
N. Feddersen21 min · TRE. JacobsenNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CARKCOLO
Scoring
79.3 #77Points per game80.2 #63
1.13 #90Points per possession1.13 #80
70.2 #105Pace (possessions)71.0 #76
Shooting
54.0 #68Effective FG%52.9 #108
35.5 #893-point %35.1 #104
48.7 #213-point attempt rate35.2 #267
31.2 #278Free throw rate36.6 #139
Possessions
15.4 #92Turnover rate14.7 #46
28.8 #240Offensive rebound rate29.0 #235
16.0 #46Assists per game15.4 #67
Defense
76.0 #216Points allowed79.8 #313
1.08 #180Points allowed per possession1.12 #272
54.9 #328Opponent effective FG%52.6 #243
35.2 #262Opponent 3-point %36.3 #319
19.1 #45Turnovers forced15.2 #267
72.6 #48Defensive rebound rate70.4 #144
8.5 #18Steals per game6.3 #196
1.9 #351Blocks per game3.3 #170
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Arkansas

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Queens University Royals93–98
  • Wvs FGCU73–63
  • Wvs Bellarmine86–73
  • Wvs Queens University Royals84–79
  • W@ Austin Peay93–88

A week or more of rest.

Colorado

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma86–90
  • Lvs Oklahoma St83–92
  • Lvs Arizona79–89
  • W@ Utah92–78
  • L@ Houston62–102

A week or more of rest.