Gonzaga Bulldogs at Creighton Bluejays: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 10:00 PM ETCHI Health Center Omaha · at Creighton

#17GONZGonzaga AP #15

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Gonzaga and Creighton
GONZ	This season	CREI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GONZ 81–76 · win probability GONZ 68%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GONZ has more of the edges

GONZ 4, CREI 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GONZBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GONZ 13.7%, CREI 16.4%. Forced: GONZ 19.9%, CREI 13.7%

GONZBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GONZ 34.8%, CREI 26.9%. Defensive: GONZ 74.3%, CREI 70.5%

GONZBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: GONZ 55.6 and allows 46.3; CREI 53.0 and allows 51.1

GONZSmall

Three-pointers

GONZ hits 33.3% and allows 30.6%; CREI hits 34.1% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 30.8% and 48.2% of their shots

CREISmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GONZ 21%, CREI 53%. Transfers in: GONZ 5, CREI 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

CREISmall

Home court

CREI at home. This season: CREI 0-0 at home, GONZ 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: GONZ plays 70.4 a game (98th fastest), CREI 68.9 (187th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

GONZ has played the 84th-hardest schedule, CREI the 40th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

GONZ offense vs CREI defense

Offense 14th of 366 against a defense 43rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

CREI offense vs GONZ defense

Offense 33rd of 366 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: GONZ 31.0, CREI 28.3. Allowed: GONZ 30.9, CREI 24.8

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GONZ -5.4	—
Total	—	156.4	—
Projected score	—	GONZ 80.9 · CREI 75.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GONZ -3.4	—
1H total	73.1	—
1H projected score	GONZ 38.2 · CREI 34.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GONZ LLWLL	18-17	51%	6-4	—
CREI LWLWL	11-23	32%	4-12	—

Venue/role: GONZ away; CREI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
GONZ UUUUU	11-24	31%	31-4
CREI UUUUO	16-18	47%	16-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GONZ	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%
CREI	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Gonzaga

No more games listed yet.

Creighton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	vs MSM	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

GONZ 1–0 CREIGONZ leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · GONZ 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2025-26	CREI 63 @ GONZ 90	GONZ -12.5	GONZ W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Gonzaga

35 games played

Straight up

31-4

89% wins

Against the spread

18-17

51% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-24

31% overs · avg −5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

31-489%

W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1751%

W W W L W W W L W W L L L W L L W L W W L L L L W W W W L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-2431%

U U U U O O O U U O O O O U O U U O U U U U U O U U O U U U U U U U U

8 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTXSO	W 98-43	-29.5	W +25.5	157.5	U 141
Nov 8	vsOU	W 83-68	-10.5	W +4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsCREI	W 90-63	-12.5	W +14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	@ASU	W 77-65	-13.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 142
Nov 17	vsSUU	W 122-50	-35.5	W +36.5	160.5	O 172
Nov 24	vsALA	W 95-85	-4.5	W +5.5	178.5	O 180
Nov 25	vsMD	W 100-61	-14.5	W +24.5	157.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsMICH	L 61-101	-3.5	L −43.5	165.5	U 162
Dec 5	vsUK	W 94-59	-5.5	W +29.5	159.5	U 153
Dec 7	vsUNF	W 109-58	-42.5	W +8.5	166.5	O 167
Dec 13	vsUCLA	W 82-72	-10.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 154
Dec 17	vsCAM	W 98-70	-36.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 168
Dec 21	vsORE	W 91-82	-12.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 173
Dec 28	@PEPP	W 96-56	-29.5	W +10.5	152.5	U 152
Dec 30	@USD	W 99-93	-29.5	L −23.5	160.5	O 192
Jan 2	vsSEA	W 80-72	-24.5	L −16.5	155.5	U 152
Jan 4	vsLMU	W 82-47	-25.5	W +9.5	154.5	U 129
Jan 8	vsSCU	W 89-77	-17.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 15	@WSU	W 86-65	-16.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 151
Jan 17	@SEA	W 71-50	-9.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 121
Jan 21	vsPEPP	W 84-60	-28.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 144
Jan 24	vsSF	W 68-66	-15.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 134
Jan 31	vsSMC	W 73-65	-8.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 4	@PORT	L 80-87	-22.5	L −29.5	152.5	O 167
Feb 7	@ORST	W 81-61	-19.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 10	vsWSU	W 83-53	-21.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 136
Feb 14	@SCU	W 94-86	-4.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 18	@SF	W 80-59	-15.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 21	vsPAC	W 71-62	-22.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 133
Feb 25	vsPORT	W 89-48	-26.5	W +14.5	150.5	U 137
Feb 28	@SMC	L 59-70	-2.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 129
Mar 9	vsORST	W 65-56	-20.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 121
Mar 10	vsSCU	W 79-68	-8.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 147
Mar 19	vsKENN	W 73-64	-20.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 137
Mar 21	vsTEX	L 68-74	-5.5	L −11.5	146.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TXSO

W 98-43

+25.5

W 83-68

+4.5

CREI

W 90-63

+14.5

ASU

W 77-65

−1.5

SUU

W 122-50

+36.5

ALA

W 95-85

+5.5

W 100-61

+24.5

MICH

L 61-101

−43.5

W 94-59

+29.5

UNF

W 109-58

+8.5

UCLA

W 82-72

−0.5

CAM

W 98-70

−8.5

ORE

W 91-82

−3.5

PEPP

W 96-56

+10.5

USD

W 99-93

−23.5

SEA

W 80-72

−16.5

LMU

W 82-47

+9.5

SCU

W 89-77

−5.5

WSU

W 86-65

+4.5

SEA

W 71-50

+11.5

PEPP

W 84-60

−4.5

W 68-66

−13.5

SMC

W 73-65

−0.5

PORT

L 80-87

−29.5

ORST

W 81-61

+0.5

WSU

W 83-53

+8.5

SCU

W 94-86

+3.5

W 80-59

+5.5

PAC

W 71-62

−13.5

PORT

W 89-48

+14.5

SMC

L 59-70

−13.5

ORST

W 65-56

−11.5

SCU

W 79-68

+2.5

KENN

W 73-64

−11.5

TEX

L 68-74

−11.5

covered 18didn’t cover 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TXSO

W 98-43

−16.5

W 83-68

−15.5

CREI

W 90-63

−11.5

ASU

W 77-65

−16.5

SUU

W 122-50

+11.5

ALA

W 95-85

+1.5

W 100-61

+3.5

MICH

L 61-101

−3.5

W 94-59

−6.5

UNF

W 109-58

+0.5

UCLA

W 82-72

+6.5

CAM

W 98-70

+7.5

ORE

W 91-82

+17.5

PEPP

W 96-56

−0.5

USD

W 99-93

+31.5

SEA

W 80-72

−3.5

LMU

W 82-47

−25.5

SCU

W 89-77

+2.5

WSU

W 86-65

−4.5

SEA

W 71-50

−29.5

PEPP

W 84-60

−6.5

W 68-66

−15.5

SMC

W 73-65

−6.5

PORT

L 80-87

+14.5

ORST

W 81-61

−7.5

WSU

W 83-53

−20.5

SCU

W 94-86

+21.5

W 80-59

−12.5

PAC

W 71-62

−11.5

PORT

W 89-48

−13.5

SMC

L 59-70

−14.5

ORST

W 65-56

−24.5

SCU

W 79-68

−10.5

KENN

W 73-64

−15.5

TEX

L 68-74

−4.5

over 11under 24avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Creighton

34 games played

Straight up

16-18

47% wins

Against the spread

11-23

32% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-18

47% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1847%

W L W W L L W W L L W W W W L W L W L W L L L W L L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2332%

L L W L L L W W L L W W W L W W L L L L L L L L L L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1847%

U U U U O U U O U U O U O O U O O O O O U O U U O O O U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsSDAK	W 92-76	-29.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	@GONZ	L 63-90	+12.5	L −14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	vsUMES	W 84-45	-33.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 129
Nov 19	vsUND	W 75-60	-29.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 24	vsBAY	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 155
Nov 25	vsISU	L 60-78	+9.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 138
Nov 27	vsORE	W 76-66	-2.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsNICH	W 96-76	-18.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 172
Dec 7	@NEB	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsKSU	L 76-83	-4.5	L −11.5	159.5	U 159
Dec 17	@XAV	W 98-57	+2.5	W +43.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 20	vsMARQ	W 84-63	-6.5	W +14.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 22	vsUTU	W 92-69	-19.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 30	vsBTLR	W 89-85	-5.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 174
Jan 4	@HALL	L 54-56	+3.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 110
Jan 7	@VILL	W 76-72	+4.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 148
Jan 10	vsSJU	L 73-90	+2.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 163
Jan 13	vsGTWN	W 86-83	-8.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 169
Jan 16	@PROV	L 88-93	-2.5	L −7.5	161.5	O 181
Jan 21	vsXAV	W 94-93	-8.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 187
Jan 27	@MARQ	L 62-86	-1.5	L −25.5	154.5	U 148
Jan 31	vsCONN	L 58-85	+6.5	L −20.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 4	@GTWN	L 68-76	+1.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 144
Feb 7	vsHALL	W 69-68	-1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 11	@DEP	L 71-72	-1.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 143
Feb 14	vsVILL	L 69-80	+1.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 18	@CONN	W 91-84	+15.5	W +22.5	143.5	O 175
Feb 21	@SJU	L 52-81	+12.5	L −16.5	156.5	U 133
Feb 25	vsDEP	L 71-72	-3.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 28	vsPROV	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	166.5	U 155
Mar 4	@BTLR	W 76-59	+2.5	W +19.5	155.5	U 135
Mar 12	vsHALL	L 61-72	+2.5	L −8.5	136.5	U 133
Apr 2	vsRUTG	W 82-69	-4.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 151
Apr 4	vsWVU	L 70-87	+1.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−13.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−14.5

UMES

W 84-45

+5.5

UND

W 75-60

−14.5

BAY

L 74-81

−3.5

ISU

L 60-78

−8.5

ORE

W 76-66

+7.5

NICH

W 96-76

+1.5

NEB

L 50-71

−15.5

KSU

L 76-83

−11.5

XAV

W 98-57

+43.5

MARQ

W 84-63

+14.5

UTU

W 92-69

+3.5

BTLR

W 89-85

−1.5

HALL

L 54-56

+1.5

VILL

W 76-72

+8.5

SJU

L 73-90

−14.5

GTWN

W 86-83

−5.5

PROV

L 88-93

−7.5

XAV

W 94-93

−7.5

MARQ

L 62-86

−25.5

CONN

L 58-85

−20.5

GTWN

L 68-76

−6.5

HALL

W 69-68

−0.5

DEP

L 71-72

−2.5

VILL

L 69-80

−9.5

CONN

W 91-84

+22.5

SJU

L 52-81

−16.5

DEP

L 71-72

−4.5

PROV

L 76-79

−6.5

BTLR

W 76-59

+19.5

HALL

L 61-72

−8.5

RUTG

W 82-69

+8.5

WVU

L 70-87

−15.5

covered 11didn’t cover 23avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−1.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−11.5

UMES

W 84-45

−6.5

UND

W 75-60

−20.5

BAY

L 74-81

+0.5

ISU

L 60-78

−14.5

ORE

W 76-66

−8.5

NICH

W 96-76

+28.5

NEB

L 50-71

−34.5

KSU

L 76-83

−0.5

XAV

W 98-57

+3.5

MARQ

W 84-63

−4.5

UTU

W 92-69

+13.5

BTLR

W 89-85

+17.5

HALL

L 54-56

−33.5

VILL

W 76-72

+5.5

SJU

L 73-90

+10.5

GTWN

W 86-83

+21.5

PROV

L 88-93

+19.5

XAV

W 94-93

+31.5

MARQ

L 62-86

−6.5

CONN

L 58-85

+0.5

GTWN

L 68-76

−2.5

HALL

W 69-68

−3.5

DEP

L 71-72

+1.5

VILL

L 69-80

+3.5

CONN

W 91-84

+31.5

SJU

L 52-81

−23.5

DEP

L 71-72

+0.5

PROV

L 76-79

−11.5

BTLR

W 76-59

−20.5

HALL

L 61-72

−3.5

RUTG

W 82-69

−0.5

WVU

L 70-87

+19.5

over 16under 18avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Gonzaga has the better starters

Position by position: Gonzaga 2, Creighton 0, even 3

GonzagaBetterCreighton

G J. Bennett TR15.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.9 ast Score 85

Even

G B. Robinson TR17.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 6.7 ast Score 86

G X. Lee TR11.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 4.2 ast Score 94

GONZSmall

G W. Enis TR16.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72

F C. Wiggins TR13.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 81

Even

F J. Green10.5 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 92

F B. Huff17.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.5 ast Score 99

GONZSmall

F O. Erhunmwunse TR6.9 pts · 8.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 74

C M. Diop TR13.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 86

Even

C F. King TR13.1 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92

GonzagaBetterCreighton

GONZ offense14th of 366 · +9.4

Even

CREI defense43rd of 366 · +2.7

GONZ defense21st of 366 · +5.3

Even

CREI offense33rd of 366 · +5.5

Backcourt+5.5 · 2 players

GONZSmall

Backcourt+3.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players

GONZBig

Frontcourt+8.6 · 3 players

Bench+2.8 · 2 players

CREISmall

Bench+5.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestGONZ betterCREI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Gonzaga

Guards

J. Bennett35 min · TRX. Lee27 min · TRD. Fogle17 minI. Harwell14 min · TRN. De SousaNewA. MetzNew

Forwards

C. Wiggins28 min · TRB. Huff26 minI. AlmansaNewP. JeffersonNewS. FunchesNewL. FosterNew

Centers

M. Diop30 min · TR

Creighton

Guards

B. Robinson36 min · TRW. Enis34 min · TRB. Davis23 min · TRA. Swartz22 minH. Greer14 minK. Edwards7 min · TR

Forwards

J. Green28 minO. Erhunmwunse25 min · TRJ. McAndrew21 minI. Traudt19 minT. Carter-GivensNew

Centers

F. King25 min · TRW. RosaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GONZ84.3 #17

CREI75.2 #159

Points per possession

GONZ1.20 #13

CREI1.09 #156

Pace (possessions)

GONZ70.4 #98

CREI68.9 #187

Shooting

Effective FG%

GONZ55.6 #25

CREI53.0 #103

3-point %

GONZ33.3 #212

CREI34.1 #167

3-point attempt rate

GONZ30.8 #342

CREI48.2 #23

Free throw rate

GONZ31.0 #282

CREI28.3 #340

Possessions

Turnover rate

GONZ13.7 #17

CREI16.4 #161

Offensive rebound rate

GONZ34.8 #52

CREI26.9 #301

Assists per game

GONZ18.4 #7

CREI15.4 #72

Defense

Points allowed

GONZ66.2 #15

CREI75.2 #196

Points allowed per possession

GONZ0.94 #1

CREI1.09 #197

Opponent effective FG%

GONZ46.3 #15

CREI51.1 #165

Opponent 3-point %

GONZ30.6 #23

CREI35.1 #256

Turnovers forced

GONZ19.9 #25

CREI13.7 #341

Defensive rebound rate

GONZ74.3 #16

CREI70.5 #132

Steals per game

GONZ8.4 #23

CREI5.7 #278

Blocks per game

GONZ3.7 #116

CREI2.8 #255

GONZ		CREI
Scoring
84.3 #17	Points per game	75.2 #159
1.20 #13	Points per possession	1.09 #156
70.4 #98	Pace (possessions)	68.9 #187
Shooting
55.6 #25	Effective FG%	53.0 #103
33.3 #212	3-point %	34.1 #167
30.8 #342	3-point attempt rate	48.2 #23
31.0 #282	Free throw rate	28.3 #340
Possessions
13.7 #17	Turnover rate	16.4 #161
34.8 #52	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #301
18.4 #7	Assists per game	15.4 #72
Defense
66.2 #15	Points allowed	75.2 #196
0.94 #1	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #197
46.3 #15	Opponent effective FG%	51.1 #165
30.6 #23	Opponent 3-point %	35.1 #256
19.9 #25	Turnovers forced	13.7 #341
74.3 #16	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #132
8.4 #23	Steals per game	5.7 #278
3.7 #116	Blocks per game	2.8 #255

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Gonzaga

31-4 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas68–74
Wvs Kennesaw St73–64
Wvs Santa Clara79–68
Wvs Oregon St65–56
L@ Saint Mary's59–70

A week or more of rest.

Creighton

16-18 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Virginia70–87
Wvs Rutgers82–69
Lvs Seton Hall61–72
W@ Butler76–59
Lvs Providence76–79

A week or more of rest.

Gonzaga Bulldogs at Creighton Bluejays

What could decide it: GONZ has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Gonzaga

Creighton

Gonzaga has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Gonzaga

Creighton