Jenny Craig Pavilion · at San Diego · Conference game
Closing line
GONZ -29.5✓ USD covered by 23.5
GONZ -29.5✓ USD covered by 23.5Closing total160.5Over by 31.5
| GONZ | This season | USD |
|---|---|---|
| 13-1 | Record | 5-7 |
| 9-5 | ATS | 6-6 |
| 7-7 | O/U | 5-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: GONZ 92–66 USD · ✓ GONZ (99%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GONZ | 48 | 51 | 99 |
| USD | 37 | 56 | 93 |
1st half: GONZ 48, USD 37 (GONZ by 11). The model had GONZ by 15.8 and a total of 73.6 (actual 85).
Team stats
| GONZ | USD | |
|---|---|---|
| 39-69 57% | Field goals | 33-63 52% |
| 8-18 44% | 3-pointers | 12-31 39% |
| 13-24 54% | Free throws | 15-23 65% |
| 44 15 off | Rebounds | 27 6 off |
| 27 | Assists | 21 |
| 6 | Steals | 8 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 20 | Fouls | 22 |
| 60 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 24 | Fast-break points | 23 |
Players
| GONZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Ike F | 23 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| Braeden Smith G | 22 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Braden Huff F | 21 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 7-11 | 0-0 |
| Steele Venters G | 20 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Emmanuel Innocenti G | 17 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Warley G | 35 | 22 | 14 | 5 | 9-14 | 0-0 |
| Tyon Grant-Foster G | 24 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 7-10 | 1-1 |
| Mario Saint-Supery G | 21 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 3-9 | 3-6 |
| Adam Miller G | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Ismaila Diagne C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cade Orness, Noah Haaland, Davis Fogle, Alonzo Metz, Parker Jefferson, Joaquim ArauzMoore
| USD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian McIntyre G | 35 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 5-8 | 0-1 |
| Ty-Laur Johnson G | 35 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 9-12 | 2-4 |
| Juanse Gorosito G | 29 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 6-10 | 2-5 |
| Vuk Boskovic F | 20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Alejandro Aviles F | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Toneari Lane G | 28 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
| Tim Moore Jr. F | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| D'Arrae Goodwin F | 11 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 5-7 | 3-5 |
| Dominique Ford G | 10 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Gavin Ripp F | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Brandon Benjamin G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Assane Diop, Kjay Bradley, Nick Del Bosque, Josh Hecht, Boden Grant, Caleb Versher, Emmanuel Callas, Neel Beniwal, Piotr Winkowski
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketGONZ -29.5
ModelGONZ -26.0
Model edgeUSD +3.5
W USD covered
Total
Market160.5
Model157.2
Model edgeUnder 3.3
L Over
Projected score
GONZ 91.6 · USD 65.6
GONZ 99 · USD 93
Win probability
GONZ 99%
1st half
Spread
GONZ -15.8
GONZ -11.0
Total
73.6
85 points
Projected score
GONZ 44.7 · USD 28.9
GONZ 48 · USD 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenGONZ -27.5
2 → GONZ
CloseGONZ -29.5
2 pts toward GONZ
Total
Open161.5
▼ 1
Close160.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
GONZ -6500 · USD +2000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened GONZ -27.5 · closed GONZ -29.5 · moved 2 toward GONZmodel GONZ -26
model GONZ -26
Opened 161.5 · closed 160.5 · moved 1 downmodel 157
model 157
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GONZ | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
| USD | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
GONZ 5–0 USDGONZ leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · GONZ has won the last 5 meetings · GONZ 4-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2024-25 | USD 80 @ GONZ 93 | GONZ -31.5 | USD W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | GONZ 105 @ USD 63 | USD +18.5 | GONZ W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | USD 74 @ GONZ 101 | GONZ -23.5 | GONZ W |
| Feb 23, 2022-23 | USD 72 @ GONZ 97 | GONZ -22.5 | GONZ W |
| Feb 3, 2021-22 | GONZ 92 @ USD 62 | USD +23 | GONZ W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Gonzaga
14 games played
Straight up
13-1
93% wins
Against the spread
9-5
64% covers · avg +7.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-7
50% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs TXSO | W 98-43 | -29.5 | W +25.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 8 | vs OU | W 83-68 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 166.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 11 | vs CREI | W 90-63 | -12.5 | W +14.5 | 164.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 14 | @ ASU | W 77-65 | -13.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 17 | vs SUU | W 122-50 | -35.5 | W +36.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 24 | vs ALA | W 95-85 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 178.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs MD | W 100-61 | -14.5 | W +24.5 | 157.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 26 | vs MICH | L 61-101 | -3.5 | L −43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 5 | vs UK | W 94-59 | -5.5 | W +29.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 7 | vs UNF | W 109-58 | -42.5 | W +8.5 | 166.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 13 | vs UCLA | W 82-72 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 17 | vs CAM | W 98-70 | -36.5 | L −8.5 | 160.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 21 | vs ORE | W 91-82 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 155.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 28 | @ PEPP | W 96-56 | -29.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsTXSO
TXSOW 98-43
+25.5
8
vsOU
OUW 83-68
+4.5
11
vsCREI
CREIW 90-63
+14.5
14
@ASU
ASUW 77-65
−1.5
17
vsSUU
SUUW 122-50
+36.5
24
vsALA
ALAW 95-85
+5.5
25
vsMD
MDW 100-61
+24.5
26
vsMICH
MICHL 61-101
−43.5
5
vsUK
UKW 94-59
+29.5
7
vsUNF
UNFW 109-58
+8.5
13
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-72
−0.5
17
vsCAM
CAMW 98-70
−8.5
21
vsORE
OREW 91-82
−3.5
28
@PEPP
PEPPW 96-56
+10.5
covered 9didn’t cover 5avg +7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTXSO
TXSOW 98-43
−16.5
8
vsOU
OUW 83-68
−15.5
11
vsCREI
CREIW 90-63
−11.5
14
@ASU
ASUW 77-65
−16.5
17
vsSUU
SUUW 122-50
+11.5
24
vsALA
ALAW 95-85
+1.5
25
vsMD
MDW 100-61
+3.5
26
vsMICH
MICHL 61-101
−3.5
5
vsUK
UKW 94-59
−6.5
7
vsUNF
UNFW 109-58
+0.5
13
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-72
+6.5
17
vsCAM
CAMW 98-70
+7.5
21
vsORE
OREW 91-82
+17.5
28
@PEPP
PEPPW 96-56
−0.5
over 7under 7avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
San Diego
12 games played
Straight up
5-7
42% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-7
42% overs · avg −3.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | vs IDST | L 68-71 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 12 | vs IDHO | W 78-74 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 18 | vs GRAM | W 78-68 | -6.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 21 | vs UCR | L 71-85 | -7.5 | L −21.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 25 | vs CBU | L 61-76 | +7.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 30 | @ LBSU | L 72-76 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 5 | @ SJSU | L 69-86 | +6.5 | L −10.5 | 144.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 9 | vs USC | L 81-94 | +14.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 13 | vs NAU | W 78-69 | -4.5 | W +4.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 19 | @ UCSD | W 82-80 | +12.5 | W +14.5 | 156.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 22 | @ WASH | L 56-86 | +18.5 | L −11.5 | 159.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 28 | vs PAC | W 66-54 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | U 120 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vsIDST
IDSTL 68-71
−7.5
12
vsIDHO
IDHOW 78-74
+5.5
18
vsGRAM
GRAMW 78-68
+3.5
21
vsUCR
UCRL 71-85
−21.5
25
vsCBU
CBUL 61-76
−7.5
30
@LBSU
LBSUL 72-76
−6.5
5
@SJSU
SJSUL 69-86
−10.5
9
vsUSC
USCL 81-94
+1.5
13
vsNAU
NAUW 78-69
+4.5
19
@UCSD
UCSDW 82-80
+14.5
22
@WASH
WASHL 56-86
−11.5
28
vsPAC
PACW 66-54
+14.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsIDST
IDSTL 68-71
−13.5
12
vsIDHO
IDHOW 78-74
−3.5
18
vsGRAM
GRAMW 78-68
−3.5
21
vsUCR
UCRL 71-85
+3.5
25
vsCBU
CBUL 61-76
−9.5
30
@LBSU
LBSUL 72-76
+0.5
5
@SJSU
SJSUL 69-86
+10.5
9
vsUSC
USCL 81-94
+16.5
13
vsNAU
NAUW 78-69
−2.5
19
@UCSD
UCSDW 82-80
+5.5
22
@WASH
WASHL 56-86
−17.5
28
vsPAC
PACW 66-54
−30.5
over 5under 7avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Gonzaga
13-1 overall · 1-0 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Pepperdine96–56
- Wvs Oregon91–82
- Wvs Campbell98–70
- Wvs UCLA82–72
- Wvs North Florida109–58
2 days since their last game.
San Diego
5-7 overall · 1-0 in conference · West Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Pacific66–54
- L@ Washington56–86
- W@ UC San Diego82–80
- Wvs N Arizona78–69
- Lvs USC81–94
2 days since their last game.