North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Cal State Northridge Matadors: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 10:00 PM ETPremier America Credit Union Arena · at CSU Northridge

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: North Dakota and CSU Northridge
UND	This season	CSUN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CSUN 83–72 · win probability CSUN 84%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 155.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CSUN has more of the edges

UND 1, CSUN 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CSUNBig

CSUN offense vs UND defense

Offense 140th of 366 against a defense 353rd, on the model’s ratings

CSUNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UND 27.4%, CSUN 31.9%. Defensive: UND 67.6%, CSUN 73.4%

UNDBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UND 14.1%, CSUN 17.5%. Forced: UND 19.3%, CSUN 16.5%

CSUNBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UND 49.5 and allows 56.5; CSUN 51.3 and allows 51.6

Context

Schedule so far

UND has played the 293rd-hardest schedule, CSUN the 219th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 73 possessions: UND plays 69.7 a game (133rd fastest), CSUN 75.6 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

CSUNSmall

Three-pointers

UND hits 32.7% and allows 37.1%; CSUN hits 32.4% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 40.6% and 33.6% of their shots

CSUNSmall

Home court

CSUN at home. This season: CSUN 0-0 at home, UND 0-0 away

CSUNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UND 37.9, CSUN 34.2. Allowed: UND 43.8, CSUN 34.3

Even

UND offense vs CSUN defense

Offense 304th of 366 against a defense 271st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UND 24%, CSUN 18%. Transfers in: UND 2, CSUN 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CSUN -11.5	—
Total	—	155.1	—
Projected score	—	UND 71.8 · CSUN 83.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CSUN -6.7	—
1H total	72.5	—
1H projected score	UND 32.9 · CSUN 39.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UND WLWWW	21-11	66%	11-4	—
CSUN LLLWL	14-18	44%	8-5	—

Venue/role: UND away; CSUN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UND OOUUU	15-17	47%	15-17
CSUN OOUUO	19-13	59%	18-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UND	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
CSUN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

North Dakota

No more games listed yet.

CSU Northridge

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UND 0–1 CSUNCSUN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UND 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 9, 2025-26	CSUN 93 @ UND 85	UND +6.5	CSUN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

North Dakota

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

21-11

66% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

L L L W L L W L L L L W L W W L W L W W W W W L W L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1166%

W L L W W L W L L W L W W W W L W L W W W W W L W L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U U O O U U O U U U U O U U O O O O O U O O U O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ALA	L 62-91	+36.5	W +7.5	170.5	U 153
Nov 6	vsUCR	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 9	vsCSUN	L 85-93	+6.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 178
Nov 15	@UCR	W 76-74	+3.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 150
Nov 19	@CREI	L 60-75	+29.5	W +14.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 22	vsCCU	L 58-75	+3.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 23	@WIU	W 78-69	-2.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 28	@HAW	L 55-92	+18.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 3	@IDHO	L 58-90	+11.5	L −20.5	151.5	U 148
Dec 6	vsMONT	L 75-79	+5.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 154
Dec 13	vsWIU	L 66-69	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 18	vsWIN	W 90-88	+12.5	W +14.5	157.5	O 178
Dec 21	@NEB	L 55-78	+29.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 1	vsORU	W 72-61	-1.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 133
Jan 3	vsSDST	W 90-87	+7.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 177
Jan 8	@OMA	L 79-90	+5.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 169
Jan 10	@KC	W 81-79	+1.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 15	vsSTMN	L 80-91	+10.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 17	vsSDAK	W 96-80	-1.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 176
Jan 22	@ORU	W 79-62	+1.5	W +18.5	149.5	U 141
Jan 24	@DEN	W 93-86	+5.5	W +12.5	162.5	O 179
Jan 29	@STMN	W 81-80	+11.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 161
Feb 5	vsOMA	W 76-73	-1.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 149
Feb 7	vsDEN	L 79-98	-3.5	L −22.5	161.5	O 177
Feb 11	@SDAK	W 72-71	+2.5	W +3.5	156.5	U 143
Feb 14	vsNDSU	L 66-83	+5.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 149
Feb 19	vsKC	W 85-70	-9.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 155
Feb 21	@SDST	L 83-91	+9.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 174
Feb 28	@NDSU	L 63-96	+11.5	L −21.5	152.5	O 159
Mar 6	vsDEN	W 83-67	+2.5	W +18.5	160.5	U 150
Mar 7	vsSTMN	W 67-66	+11.5	W +12.5	153.5	U 133
Mar 8	vsNDSU	L 62-70	+11.5	W +3.5	147.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ALA

L 62-91

+7.5

UCR

L 70-74

−5.5

CSUN

L 85-93

−1.5

UCR

W 76-74

+5.5

CREI

L 60-75

+14.5

CCU

L 58-75

−13.5

WIU

W 78-69

+6.5

HAW

L 55-92

−18.5

IDHO

L 58-90

−20.5

MONT

L 75-79

+1.5

WIU

L 66-69

−10.5

WIN

W 90-88

+14.5

NEB

L 55-78

+6.5

ORU

W 72-61

+9.5

SDST

W 90-87

+10.5

OMA

L 79-90

−5.5

W 81-79

+3.5

STMN

L 80-91

−0.5

SDAK

W 96-80

+14.5

ORU

W 79-62

+18.5

DEN

W 93-86

+12.5

STMN

W 81-80

+12.5

OMA

W 76-73

+1.5

DEN

L 79-98

−22.5

SDAK

W 72-71

+3.5

NDSU

L 66-83

−11.5

W 85-70

+5.5

SDST

L 83-91

+1.5

NDSU

L 63-96

−21.5

DEN

W 83-67

+18.5

STMN

W 67-66

+12.5

NDSU

L 62-70

+3.5

covered 21didn’t cover 11avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ALA

L 62-91

−17.5

UCR

L 70-74

−2.5

CSUN

L 85-93

+19.5

UCR

W 76-74

+1.5

CREI

L 60-75

−20.5

CCU

L 58-75

−14.5

WIU

W 78-69

+0.5

HAW

L 55-92

−2.5

IDHO

L 58-90

−3.5

MONT

L 75-79

−0.5

WIU

L 66-69

−10.5

WIN

W 90-88

+20.5

NEB

L 55-78

−18.5

ORU

W 72-61

−15.5

SDST

W 90-87

+24.5

OMA

L 79-90

+22.5

W 81-79

+13.5

STMN

L 80-91

+19.5

SDAK

W 96-80

+15.5

ORU

W 79-62

−8.5

DEN

W 93-86

+16.5

STMN

W 81-80

+8.5

OMA

W 76-73

−1.5

DEN

L 79-98

+15.5

SDAK

W 72-71

−13.5

NDSU

L 66-83

−0.5

W 85-70

+4.5

SDST

L 83-91

+22.5

NDSU

L 63-96

+6.5

DEN

W 83-67

−10.5

STMN

W 67-66

−20.5

NDSU

L 62-70

−15.5

over 15under 17avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

CSU Northridge

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-13

59% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

L W L W L L W L W W W L L W W L W L L W W W W W W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L W L W L L W L L W W W L W L L W L L W W L W W W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1359%

U O O O U U U O O O O O O U O U O O U O U O O U O U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UNI	L 57-86	+9.5	L −19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	@UND	W 93-85	-6.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 178
Nov 11	@NDSU	L 68-90	+4.5	L −17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 16	vsTROY	W 94-85	+4.5	W +13.5	157.5	O 179
Nov 26	vsIDHO	L 64-78	+1.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 142
Nov 28	vsIDST	L 50-82	+1.5	L −30.5	148.5	U 132
Dec 4	vsCSUB	W 87-66	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 6	@UCI	L 71-85	+7.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsFRES	W 89-87	-3.5	L −1.5	161.5	O 176
Dec 13	@DEL	W 88-66	+1.5	W +23.5	144.5	O 154
Dec 22	vsSAC	W 100-88	-8.5	W +3.5	164.5	O 188
Dec 27	@STAN	L 80-88	+15.5	W +7.5	160.5	O 168
Jan 1	@UCD	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 169
Jan 3	vsUCSB	W 74-65	-2.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsCP	W 95-90	-6.5	L −1.5	175.5	O 185
Jan 10	@CSUF	L 79-86	+1.5	L −5.5	173.5	U 165
Jan 15	@UCSD	W 84-79	+7.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 163
Jan 17	vsLBSU	L 80-87	-7.5	L −14.5	158.5	O 167
Jan 24	@HAW	L 68-89	+10.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 157
Jan 29	vsUCD	W 94-78	-3.5	W +12.5	163.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsUCSD	W 81-64	+1.5	W +18.5	160.5	U 145
Feb 5	@CP	W 97-96	-2.5	L −1.5	177.5	O 193
Feb 7	vsUCR	W 88-74	-10.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 162
Feb 14	vsHAW	W 84-60	+2.5	W +26.5	162.5	U 144
Feb 19	@UCSB	W 85-83	+5.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 21	@LBSU	W 78-76	-2.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 154
Feb 26	vsUCI	L 67-68	-1.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 135
Feb 28	@UCR	L 84-95	-4.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 5	@CSUB	W 86-84	-8.5	L −6.5	163.5	O 170
Mar 7	vsCSUF	L 77-90	-5.5	L −18.5	170.5	U 167
Mar 12	vsUCSD	W 80-70	+1.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 150
Mar 13	vsUCI	L 78-93	+3.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−19.5

UND

W 93-85

+1.5

NDSU

L 68-90

−17.5

TROY

W 94-85

+13.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−12.5

IDST

L 50-82

−30.5

CSUB

W 87-66

+15.5

UCI

L 71-85

−6.5

FRES

W 89-87

−1.5

DEL

W 88-66

+23.5

SAC

W 100-88

+3.5

STAN

L 80-88

+7.5

UCD

L 80-89

−5.5

UCSB

W 74-65

+6.5

W 95-90

−1.5

CSUF

L 79-86

−5.5

UCSD

W 84-79

+12.5

LBSU

L 80-87

−14.5

HAW

L 68-89

−10.5

UCD

W 94-78

+12.5

UCSD

W 81-64

+18.5

W 97-96

−1.5

UCR

W 88-74

+3.5

HAW

W 84-60

+26.5

UCSB

W 85-83

+7.5

LBSU

W 78-76

−0.5

UCI

L 67-68

−2.5

UCR

L 84-95

−15.5

CSUB

W 86-84

−6.5

CSUF

L 77-90

−18.5

UCSD

W 80-70

+11.5

UCI

L 78-93

−11.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−10.5

UND

W 93-85

+19.5

NDSU

L 68-90

+1.5

TROY

W 94-85

+21.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−17.5

IDST

L 50-82

−16.5

CSUB

W 87-66

−2.5

UCI

L 71-85

+3.5

FRES

W 89-87

+14.5

DEL

W 88-66

+9.5

SAC

W 100-88

+23.5

STAN

L 80-88

+7.5

UCD

L 80-89

+6.5

UCSB

W 74-65

−17.5

W 95-90

+9.5

CSUF

L 79-86

−8.5

UCSD

W 84-79

+3.5

LBSU

L 80-87

+8.5

HAW

L 68-89

−1.5

UCD

W 94-78

+8.5

UCSD

W 81-64

−15.5

W 97-96

+15.5

UCR

W 88-74

+1.5

HAW

W 84-60

−18.5

UCSB

W 85-83

+11.5

LBSU

W 78-76

−3.5

UCI

L 67-68

−18.5

UCR

L 84-95

+20.5

CSUB

W 86-84

+6.5

CSUF

L 77-90

−3.5

UCSD

W 80-70

−3.5

UCI

L 78-93

+18.5

over 19under 13avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

CSU Northridge has the better starters

Position by position: North Dakota 0, CSU Northridge 3, even 2

North DakotaBetterCSU Northridge

G Z. Kraft7.7 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 23

CSUNBig

G J. Davis16.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 7.5 ast Score 71

G S. Hincapie TR4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11

CSUNSmall

G C. Smith TR7.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 36

G T. Wagner TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G M. Ballew TR8.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19

F K. Ouse0.5 pts · 0.4 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G B. Hicks TR8.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 49

C J. Jones2.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 1

CSUNSmall

G K. Ekissi TR4.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 29

North DakotaBetterCSU Northridge

UND offense304th of 366 · -9.5

Even

CSUN defense271st of 366 · -6.8

UND defense353rd of 366 · -9.9

CSUNBig

CSUN offense140th of 366 · -4.2

Backcourt-4.8 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-4.7 · 5 players

Frontcourt-4.5 · 2 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestUND betterCSUN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

North Dakota

Guards

Z. Kraft25 minS. Hincapie16 min · TRT. Wagner7 min · TRL. WinkelNewZ. ParksNewJ. MooreNew

Forwards

K. Ouse6 minA. RadojevicNewJ. ThomasNewD. ElyNew

Centers

J. Jones19 min

CSU Northridge

Guards

J. Davis34 minC. Smith30 min · TRM. Ballew23 min · TRB. Hicks22 min · TRK. Ekissi17 min · TRG. Gazarian2 min

Forwards

J. Martin7 min · TRB. OmotNew

Centers

E. Stephen15 min · TRL. Niang8 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UND74.2 #187

CSUN80.6 #54

Points per possession

UND1.07 #214

CSUN1.06 #219

Pace (possessions)

UND69.7 #133

CSUN75.6 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

UND49.5 #272

CSUN51.3 #183

3-point %

UND32.7 #246

CSUN32.4 #260

3-point attempt rate

UND40.6 #155

CSUN33.6 #308

Free throw rate

UND37.9 #106

CSUN34.2 #200

Possessions

Turnover rate

UND14.1 #27

CSUN17.5 #237

Offensive rebound rate

UND27.4 #284

CSUN31.9 #130

Assists per game

UND10.8 #343

CSUN16.7 #31

Defense

Points allowed

UND79.6 #310

CSUN81.3 #336

Points allowed per possession

UND1.14 #306

CSUN1.08 #153

Opponent effective FG%

UND56.5 #353

CSUN51.6 #191

Opponent 3-point %

UND37.1 #345

CSUN34.4 #210

Turnovers forced

UND19.3 #36

CSUN16.5 #187

Defensive rebound rate

UND67.6 #276

CSUN73.4 #26

Steals per game

UND7.9 #49

CSUN6.6 #166

Blocks per game

UND2.5 #307

CSUN2.8 #259

UND		CSUN
Scoring
74.2 #187	Points per game	80.6 #54
1.07 #214	Points per possession	1.06 #219
69.7 #133	Pace (possessions)	75.6 #2
Shooting
49.5 #272	Effective FG%	51.3 #183
32.7 #246	3-point %	32.4 #260
40.6 #155	3-point attempt rate	33.6 #308
37.9 #106	Free throw rate	34.2 #200
Possessions
14.1 #27	Turnover rate	17.5 #237
27.4 #284	Offensive rebound rate	31.9 #130
10.8 #343	Assists per game	16.7 #31
Defense
79.6 #310	Points allowed	81.3 #336
1.14 #306	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #153
56.5 #353	Opponent effective FG%	51.6 #191
37.1 #345	Opponent 3-point %	34.4 #210
19.3 #36	Turnovers forced	16.5 #187
67.6 #276	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #26
7.9 #49	Steals per game	6.6 #166
2.5 #307	Blocks per game	2.8 #259

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Dakota

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs N Dakota St62–70
Wvs St Thomas67–66
Wvs Denver83–67
L@ N Dakota St63–96
L@ S Dakota St83–91

A week or more of rest.

CSU Northridge

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UC Irvine78–93
Wvs UC San Diego80–70
Lvs Fullerton77–90
W@ Bakersfield86–84
L@ UC Riverside84–95

A week or more of rest.

North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Cal State Northridge Matadors

What could decide it: CSUN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

North Dakota

CSU Northridge

CSU Northridge has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

North Dakota

CSU Northridge