Sam Houston Bearkats at Nevada Wolf Pack: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 10:00 PM ETLawlor Events Center · at Nevada

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Sam Houston and Nevada
SHSU	This season	NEV
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEV 82–69 · win probability NEV 88%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEV has more of the edges

SHSU 2, NEV 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NEVBig

NEV offense vs SHSU defense

Offense 104th of 366 against a defense 228th, on the model’s ratings

NEVSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SHSU 16.8%, NEV 14.8%. Forced: SHSU 16.1%, NEV 17.0%

NEVSmall

SHSU offense vs NEV defense

Offense 154th of 366 against a defense 73rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: SHSU plays 70.7 a game (88th fastest), NEV 67.7 (243rd). Faster games mean more points

NEVSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SHSU 34.4, NEV 44.8. Allowed: SHSU 36.7, NEV 38.9

SHSUSmall

Three-pointers

SHSU hits 37.2% and allows 32.5%; NEV hits 35.8% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 35.8% and 32.3% of their shots

NEVSmall

Home court

NEV at home. This season: NEV 0-0 at home, SHSU 0-0 away

SHSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SHSU 52.5 and allows 51.4; NEV 50.0 and allows 51.1

Context

Schedule so far

SHSU has played the 138th-hardest schedule, NEV the 94th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SHSU 35.9%, NEV 32.2%. Defensive: SHSU 69.9%, NEV 73.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SHSU 29%, NEV 38%. Transfers in: SHSU 2, NEV 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NEV -13.3	—
Total	—	150.7	—
Projected score	—	SHSU 68.7 · NEV 82

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEV -7.8	—
1H total	70.5	—
1H projected score	SHSU 31.3 · NEV 39.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU LLWLL	20-11	65%	10-6	—
NEV WLWWW	22-15	59%	12-7	—

Venue/role: SHSU away; NEV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU OUUUO	18-13	58%	19-12
NEV OUOUU	20-17	54%	24-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NEV	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Sam Houston

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	@ OMA	No recent meeting

Nevada

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SHSU 0–2 NEVNEV leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · NEV has won the last 2 meetings · SHSU 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 4, 2024-25	SHSU 75 @ NEV 91	NEV -10.5	NEV W
Nov 28, 2022-23	SHSU 60 @ NEV 78	NEV -4.5	NEV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Sam Houston

31 games played

Straight up

19-12

61% wins

Against the spread

20-11

65% covers · avg +3.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1261%

L L W W W L W W L L L W L W W W W W W W L W W W W W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

20-1165%

W W W W W W W W L L W W L W W W W W W L L W W L W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1358%

O O U O O O U O O O U U O U U O U O O U O U U O O O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@TTU	L 77-98	+31.5	W +10.5	156.5	O 175
Nov 15	@UTAH	L 79-85	+12.5	W +6.5	159.5	O 164
Nov 19	vsWYO	W 78-70	-1.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsIDST	W 84-81	-1.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 165
Nov 28	vsIDHO	W 94-68	+1.5	W +27.5	154.5	O 162
Dec 2	@OKST	L 83-93	+13.5	W +3.5	169.5	O 176
Dec 6	@TXSO	W 82-70	-7.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 152
Dec 17	@ORST	W 85-75	+3.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 160
Dec 21	@NMSU	L 78-87	+5.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 165
Jan 2	@WKU	L 91-102	+5.5	L −5.5	168.5	O 193
Jan 4	@MTSU	L 67-68	+4.5	W +3.5	156.5	U 135
Jan 8	vsDEL	W 72-60	-11.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 10	vsLIB	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	154.5	O 156
Jan 14	@JXST	W 77-62	+1.5	W +16.5	150.5	U 139
Jan 17	@FIU	W 76-63	+2.5	W +15.5	168.5	U 139
Jan 21	vsKENN	W 93-87	-5.5	W +0.5	167.5	O 180
Jan 24	vsWKU	W 73-58	-5.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 131
Jan 28	@MOST	W 80-71	+1.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 151
Jan 31	vsLT	W 83-67	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 4	vsUTEP	W 70-66	-10.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 7	@LT	L 78-87	-3.5	L −12.5	143.5	O 165
Feb 14	@KENN	W 83-79	+1.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 162
Feb 18	vsMTSU	W 78-70	-3.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 148
Feb 21	vsJXST	W 82-78	-6.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 160
Feb 26	vsFIU	W 100-67	-6.5	W +26.5	161.5	O 167
Feb 28	vsMOST	W 86-81	-6.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 167
Mar 5	@DEL	L 80-83	-7.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 163
Mar 7	@LIB	L 72-79	+4.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 151
Mar 11	vsNMSU	W 69-61	-4.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 130
Mar 13	vsKENN	L 73-79	-2.5	L −8.5	159.5	U 152
Mar 18	@UNM	L 83-107	+11.5	L −12.5	162.5	O 190

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TTU

L 77-98

+10.5

UTAH

L 79-85

+6.5

WYO

W 78-70

+6.5

IDST

W 84-81

+1.5

IDHO

W 94-68

+27.5

OKST

L 83-93

+3.5

TXSO

W 82-70

+4.5

ORST

W 85-75

+13.5

NMSU

L 78-87

−3.5

WKU

L 91-102

−5.5

MTSU

L 67-68

+3.5

DEL

W 72-60

+0.5

LIB

L 74-82

−6.5

JXST

W 77-62

+16.5

FIU

W 76-63

+15.5

KENN

W 93-87

+0.5

WKU

W 73-58

+9.5

MOST

W 80-71

+10.5

W 83-67

+8.5

UTEP

W 70-66

−6.5

L 78-87

−12.5

KENN

W 83-79

+5.5

MTSU

W 78-70

+4.5

JXST

W 82-78

−2.5

FIU

W 100-67

+26.5

MOST

W 86-81

−1.5

DEL

L 80-83

−10.5

LIB

L 72-79

−2.5

NMSU

W 69-61

+3.5

KENN

L 73-79

−8.5

UNM

L 83-107

−12.5

covered 20didn’t cover 11avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TTU

L 77-98

+18.5

UTAH

L 79-85

+4.5

WYO

W 78-70

−8.5

IDST

W 84-81

+22.5

IDHO

W 94-68

+7.5

OKST

L 83-93

+6.5

TXSO

W 82-70

−6.5

ORST

W 85-75

+6.5

NMSU

L 78-87

+11.5

WKU

L 91-102

+24.5

MTSU

L 67-68

−21.5

DEL

W 72-60

−12.5

LIB

L 74-82

+1.5

JXST

W 77-62

−11.5

FIU

W 76-63

−29.5

KENN

W 93-87

+12.5

WKU

W 73-58

−25.5

MOST

W 80-71

+2.5

W 83-67

+8.5

UTEP

W 70-66

−9.5

L 78-87

+21.5

KENN

W 83-79

−0.5

MTSU

W 78-70

−3.5

JXST

W 82-78

+12.5

FIU

W 100-67

+5.5

MOST

W 86-81

+14.5

DEL

L 80-83

+15.5

LIB

L 72-79

−1.5

NMSU

W 69-61

−24.5

KENN

L 73-79

−7.5

UNM

L 83-107

+27.5

over 18under 13avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nevada

37 games played

Straight up

24-13

65% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-17

54% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1365%

W W W L L W L W W W W W W W L W L W W L W W L W L L W W L L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W L L L L W L W W W L W W L L W W W W W W W W L L L W W L L L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1754%

U O O O O U O O U U O O U U U O U O O O U O O U U O O U O O U U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLT	W 77-50	-9.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 8	vsPAC	W 78-77	-13.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsSIU	W 86-81	-11.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 15	@SCU	L 83-98	+6.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsUCD	L 71-75	-12.5	L −16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 22	vsUCSB	W 77-64	-5.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 27	vsWASH	L 66-83	+3.5	L −13.5	145.5	O 149
Nov 28	vsSF	W 81-65	+5.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 146
Dec 2	vsUCSD	W 76-70	-5.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 146
Dec 7	@WSU	W 78-64	+2.5	W +16.5	145.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsDUQ	W 78-75	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 153
Dec 20	vsBOIS	W 81-66	+3.5	W +18.5	141.5	O 147
Dec 30	@CSU	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@FRES	W 66-65	-4.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 6	vsSDSU	L 68-73	-1.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsWYO	W 92-83	-3.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 175
Jan 14	@USU	L 62-71	+13.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 17	@AF	W 81-66	-14.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 20	vsSJSU	W 87-54	-16.5	W +16.5	137.5	O 141
Jan 24	@UNM	L 73-80	+8.5	W +1.5	150.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsGCU	W 66-60	-3.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 126
Jan 30	vsUNLV	W 89-76	-7.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 165
Feb 3	@BOIS	L 87-91	+6.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 178
Feb 7	vsFRES	W 69-59	-11.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 14	@SDSU	L 57-71	+7.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 128
Feb 17	@SJSU	L 71-87	-10.5	L −26.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 21	vsUSU	W 80-77	+5.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsUNM	W 67-60	-1.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 127
Feb 28	@UNLV	L 83-85	-1.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 168
Mar 3	@WYO	L 73-83	-1.5	L −11.5	143.5	O 156
Mar 7	vsAF	W 74-59	-24.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsAF	W 80-45	-19.5	W +15.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 12	vsGCU	W 84-80	+3.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 164
Mar 13	vsUSU	L 66-79	+6.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 145
Mar 18	vsMUR	W 89-75	-8.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 164
Mar 21	vsLIB	W 73-63	-7.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Mar 25	@AUB	L 69-75	+8.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 77-50

+17.5

PAC

W 78-77

−12.5

SIU

W 86-81

−6.5

SCU

L 83-98

−8.5

UCD

L 71-75

−16.5

UCSB

W 77-64

+7.5

WASH

L 66-83

−13.5

W 81-65

+21.5

UCSD

W 76-70

+0.5

WSU

W 78-64

+16.5

DUQ

W 78-75

−2.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+18.5

CSU

W 75-62

+14.5

FRES

W 66-65

−3.5

SDSU

L 68-73

−6.5

WYO

W 92-83

+5.5

USU

L 62-71

+4.5

W 81-66

+0.5

SJSU

W 87-54

+16.5

UNM

L 73-80

+1.5

GCU

W 66-60

+2.5

UNLV

W 89-76

+5.5

BOIS

L 87-91

+2.5

FRES

W 69-59

−1.5

SDSU

L 57-71

−6.5

SJSU

L 71-87

−26.5

USU

W 80-77

+8.5

UNM

W 67-60

+5.5

UNLV

L 83-85

−3.5

WYO

L 73-83

−11.5

W 74-59

−9.5

W 80-45

+15.5

GCU

W 84-80

+7.5

USU

L 66-79

−6.5

MUR

W 89-75

+5.5

LIB

W 73-63

+2.5

AUB

L 69-75

+2.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 77-50

−9.5

PAC

W 78-77

+15.5

SIU

W 86-81

+14.5

SCU

L 83-98

+36.5

UCD

L 71-75

+2.5

UCSB

W 77-64

−6.5

WASH

L 66-83

+3.5

W 81-65

+3.5

UCSD

W 76-70

−3.5

WSU

W 78-64

−3.5

DUQ

W 78-75

+1.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+5.5

CSU

W 75-62

−2.5

FRES

W 66-65

−15.5

SDSU

L 68-73

−0.5

WYO

W 92-83

+31.5

USU

L 62-71

−14.5

W 81-66

+12.5

SJSU

W 87-54

+3.5

UNM

L 73-80

+2.5

GCU

W 66-60

−17.5

UNLV

W 89-76

+17.5

BOIS

L 87-91

+36.5

FRES

W 69-59

−21.5

SDSU

L 57-71

−11.5

SJSU

L 71-87

+16.5

USU

W 80-77

+10.5

UNM

W 67-60

−21.5

UNLV

L 83-85

+17.5

WYO

L 73-83

+12.5

W 74-59

−11.5

W 80-45

−15.5

GCU

W 84-80

+26.5

USU

L 66-79

−0.5

MUR

W 89-75

+4.5

LIB

W 73-63

−10.5

AUB

L 69-75

−7.5

over 20under 17avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nevada has the better starters

Position by position: Sam Houston 1, Nevada 2, even 2

Sam HoustonBetterNevada

G J. Begg10 pts · 2.6 reb · 3.5 ast Score 17

NEVBig

G S. Phipps TR13.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 77

G J. Coleman8.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 41

Even

G K. Kensie TR10.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 54

F E. St. Bernard TR5.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 78

SHSUSmall

G P. Bandelj TR12.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.2 ast Score 57

F M. Dann2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 58

NEVSmall

G V. Weems10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 84

F R. Greppi TR0 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F E. Price12.8 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 91

Sam HoustonBetterNevada

SHSU offense154th of 366 · -4.7

NEVSmall

NEV defense73rd of 366 · +0.7

SHSU defense228th of 366 · -6.1

NEVSmall

NEV offense104th of 366 · -1.4

Backcourt-3.6 · 2 players

NEVBig

Backcourt+2.1 · 4 players

Frontcourt+1.0 · 3 players

NEVSmall

Frontcourt+3.4 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-1.3 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestSHSU betterNEV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Sam Houston

Guards

J. Begg27 minJ. Coleman22 minZ. PipkinNewA. McDowellNewN. NguyenNewK. PartainNew

Forwards

E. St. Bernard18 min · TRM. Dann9 minR. Greppi1 min · TRC. Sadibou NdiayeNewY. OkeNewA. LoustauNew

Nevada

Guards

S. Phipps34 min · TRK. Kensie31 min · TRP. Bandelj31 min · TRV. Weems25 minP. White14 minM. Walker8 min

Forwards

E. Price30 minH. LucasNewK. SnyderNew

Centers

S. Majok12 min · TRC. Lath4 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SHSU80.0 #67

NEV76.0 #141

Points per possession

SHSU1.13 #78

NEV1.12 #96

Pace (possessions)

SHSU70.7 #88

NEV67.7 #243

Shooting

Effective FG%

SHSU52.5 #128

NEV50.0 #236

3-point %

SHSU37.2 #24

NEV35.8 #70

3-point attempt rate

SHSU35.8 #253

NEV32.3 #326

Free throw rate

SHSU34.4 #199

NEV44.8 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

SHSU16.8 #186

NEV14.8 #56

Offensive rebound rate

SHSU35.9 #25

NEV32.2 #119

Assists per game

SHSU14.9 #95

NEV14.5 #119

Defense

Points allowed

SHSU76.9 #237

NEV71.5 #92

Points allowed per possession

SHSU1.09 #191

NEV1.06 #101

Opponent effective FG%

SHSU51.4 #180

NEV51.1 #166

Opponent 3-point %

SHSU32.5 #89

NEV33.7 #168

Turnovers forced

SHSU16.1 #220

NEV17.0 #150

Defensive rebound rate

SHSU69.9 #168

NEV73.1 #33

Steals per game

SHSU7.0 #128

NEV6.6 #168

Blocks per game

SHSU2.6 #288

NEV3.8 #106

SHSU		NEV
Scoring
80.0 #67	Points per game	76.0 #141
1.13 #78	Points per possession	1.12 #96
70.7 #88	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #243
Shooting
52.5 #128	Effective FG%	50.0 #236
37.2 #24	3-point %	35.8 #70
35.8 #253	3-point attempt rate	32.3 #326
34.4 #199	Free throw rate	44.8 #6
Possessions
16.8 #186	Turnover rate	14.8 #56
35.9 #25	Offensive rebound rate	32.2 #119
14.9 #95	Assists per game	14.5 #119
Defense
76.9 #237	Points allowed	71.5 #92
1.09 #191	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #101
51.4 #180	Opponent effective FG%	51.1 #166
32.5 #89	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #168
16.1 #220	Turnovers forced	17.0 #150
69.9 #168	Defensive rebound rate	73.1 #33
7.0 #128	Steals per game	6.6 #168
2.6 #288	Blocks per game	3.8 #106

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Sam Houston

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

L@ New Mexico83–107
Lvs Kennesaw St73–79
Wvs New Mexico St69–61
L@ Liberty72–79
L@ Delaware80–83

A week or more of rest.

Nevada

24-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Auburn69–75
Wvs Liberty73–63
Wvs Murray St89–75
Lvs Utah State66–79
Wvs Grand Canyon84–80

A week or more of rest.

Sam Houston Bearkats at Nevada Wolf Pack

What could decide it: NEV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Sam Houston

Nevada

Nevada has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Sam Houston

Nevada