Sam Houston Bearkats at Delaware Blue Hens: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 5, 7:00 PM ETBob Carpenter Center · at Delaware · Conference game

Final

#206DELDelaware83▲ winner

Closing lineSHSU -7.5✓ DEL covered by 10.5

Closing total147.5Over by 15.5

Season records: Sam Houston and Delaware
SHSU	This season	DEL
18-8	Record	9-19
19-7	ATS	14-14
16-10	O/U	15-13

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SHSU 78–72 DEL · ✗ SHSU (71%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SHSU	33	47	80
DEL	33	50	83

1st half: SHSU 33, DEL 33 (tied). The model had SHSU by 3.9 and a total of 70.2 (actual 66).

Team stats

SHSU		DEL
29-70 41%	Field goals	30-58 52%
11-27 41%	3-pointers	14-27 52%
11-16 69%	Free throws	9-12 75%
40 15 off	Rebounds	33 4 off
20	Assists	19
5	Steals	8
1	Blocks	10
10	Turnovers	10
14	Fouls	14
34	Points in paint	30
18	Fast-break points	16

Players

SHSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jacobe Coleman G	37	17	2	6	6-11	5-10
Damon Nicholas Jr. G	36	18	9	4	7-9	1-1
Kashie Natt G	35	2	7	3	0-13	0-4
Jacob Walker G	33	23	3	4	7-18	3-9
Veljko Ilic F	26	12	6	2	6-10	0-0
Bench
CJ Beaumont G	19	6	4	0	2-5	2-3
Matt Dann F	14	2	4	1	1-4	0-0

Did not play: Nathan Nguyen, Noah Benny, Cheikh Sadibou Ndiaye, Jackson Rogers, Jaxson Ford, Po'Boigh King, Justin Begg, Isaiah Manning

DEL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Christian Bliss G	40	22	2	10	7-13	3-5
Justyn Fernandez G	40	26	2	4	9-20	6-11
Alex Kazanecki G	40	11	5	2	3-6	3-5
Macon Emory F	31	9	8	2	4-10	1-5
Houston Emory F	20	3	5	0	1-2	1-1
Bench
Jayden Taylor F	29	12	8	1	6-7	0-0

Did not play: Lance Piper, Mason Ellison, Bouna Kebe, Alex McFadden, Nnanna Njoku, Brandon Baffone, Tyler Houser, Jameel Brown, Cavan Reilly

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SHSU -7.5	SHSU -6.3	DEL +1.2	W DEL covered
Total	147.5	150.0	Over 2.5	W Over
Projected score	—	SHSU 78.2 · DEL 71.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SHSU -3.9	PK
1H total	70.2	66
1H projected score	SHSU 37 · DEL 33.2	SHSU 33 · DEL 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU WWLWL	19-7	73%	10-3	9-4
DEL WWLLW	14-14	50%	6-6	13-10

Venue/role: SHSU away, as favorite; DEL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU UUOOO	16-10	62%	18-8
DEL OOOOO	15-13	54%	9-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
DEL	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SHSU 1–0 DELSHSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SHSU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 8, 2025-26	DEL 60 @ SHSU 72	SHSU -11.5	SHSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Sam Houston

26 games played

Straight up

18-8

69% wins

Against the spread

19-7

73% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-10

62% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-869%

L L W W W L W W L L L W L W W W W W W W L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-773%

W W W W W W W W L L W W L W W W W W W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1062%

O O U O O O U O O O U U O U U O U O O U O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@TTU	L 77-98	+31.5	W +10.5	156.5	O 175
Nov 15	@UTAH	L 79-85	+12.5	W +6.5	159.5	O 164
Nov 19	vsWYO	W 78-70	-1.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsIDST	W 84-81	-1.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 165
Nov 28	vsIDHO	W 94-68	+1.5	W +27.5	154.5	O 162
Dec 2	@OKST	L 83-93	+13.5	W +3.5	169.5	O 176
Dec 6	@TXSO	W 82-70	-7.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 152
Dec 17	@ORST	W 85-75	+3.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 160
Dec 21	@NMSU	L 78-87	+5.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 165
Jan 2	@WKU	L 91-102	+5.5	L −5.5	168.5	O 193
Jan 4	@MTSU	L 67-68	+4.5	W +3.5	156.5	U 135
Jan 8	vsDEL	W 72-60	-11.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 10	vsLIB	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	154.5	O 156
Jan 14	@JXST	W 77-62	+1.5	W +16.5	150.5	U 139
Jan 17	@FIU	W 76-63	+2.5	W +15.5	168.5	U 139
Jan 21	vsKENN	W 93-87	-5.5	W +0.5	167.5	O 180
Jan 24	vsWKU	W 73-58	-5.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 131
Jan 28	@MOST	W 80-71	+1.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 151
Jan 31	vsLT	W 83-67	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 4	vsUTEP	W 70-66	-10.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 7	@LT	L 78-87	-3.5	L −12.5	143.5	O 165
Feb 14	@KENN	W 83-79	+1.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 162
Feb 18	vsMTSU	W 78-70	-3.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 148
Feb 21	vsJXST	W 82-78	-6.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 160
Feb 26	vsFIU	W 100-67	-6.5	W +26.5	161.5	O 167
Feb 28	vsMOST	W 86-81	-6.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TTU

L 77-98

+10.5

UTAH

L 79-85

+6.5

WYO

W 78-70

+6.5

IDST

W 84-81

+1.5

IDHO

W 94-68

+27.5

OKST

L 83-93

+3.5

TXSO

W 82-70

+4.5

ORST

W 85-75

+13.5

NMSU

L 78-87

−3.5

WKU

L 91-102

−5.5

MTSU

L 67-68

+3.5

DEL

W 72-60

+0.5

LIB

L 74-82

−6.5

JXST

W 77-62

+16.5

FIU

W 76-63

+15.5

KENN

W 93-87

+0.5

WKU

W 73-58

+9.5

MOST

W 80-71

+10.5

W 83-67

+8.5

UTEP

W 70-66

−6.5

L 78-87

−12.5

KENN

W 83-79

+5.5

MTSU

W 78-70

+4.5

JXST

W 82-78

−2.5

FIU

W 100-67

+26.5

MOST

W 86-81

−1.5

covered 19didn’t cover 7avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TTU

L 77-98

+18.5

UTAH

L 79-85

+4.5

WYO

W 78-70

−8.5

IDST

W 84-81

+22.5

IDHO

W 94-68

+7.5

OKST

L 83-93

+6.5

TXSO

W 82-70

−6.5

ORST

W 85-75

+6.5

NMSU

L 78-87

+11.5

WKU

L 91-102

+24.5

MTSU

L 67-68

−21.5

DEL

W 72-60

−12.5

LIB

L 74-82

+1.5

JXST

W 77-62

−11.5

FIU

W 76-63

−29.5

KENN

W 93-87

+12.5

WKU

W 73-58

−25.5

MOST

W 80-71

+2.5

W 83-67

+8.5

UTEP

W 70-66

−9.5

L 78-87

+21.5

KENN

W 83-79

−0.5

MTSU

W 78-70

−3.5

JXST

W 82-78

+12.5

FIU

W 100-67

+5.5

MOST

W 86-81

+14.5

over 16under 10avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Delaware

28 games played

Straight up

9-19

32% wins

Against the spread

14-14

50% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-13

54% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-1932%

L L W L W L L W L W L L W L L L L L W L L W W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1450%

L W W L W L L W L L L W W L W L L L W L W W W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1354%

U U O U U O O U O U U O U U O O O U U U O O U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BUCK	L 70-78	+2.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 11	@BYU	L 68-85	+35.5	W +18.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 18	vsSPU	W 81-70	-4.5	W +6.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsSIU	L 59-79	+8.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 138
Nov 25	vsUNCG	W 73-60	+1.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 1	vsIONA	L 66-89	+1.5	L −21.5	149.5	O 155
Dec 6	@DSU	L 72-75	-7.5	L −10.5	129.5	O 147
Dec 10	@GW	W 70-58	+21.5	W +33.5	152.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsCSUN	L 66-88	-1.5	L −23.5	144.5	O 154
Dec 16	vsRID	W 65-57	-8.5	L −0.5	129.5	U 122
Dec 29	vsMOST	L 43-61	+1.5	L −16.5	131.5	U 104
Jan 2	vsJXST	L 64-67	+4.5	W +1.5	126.5	O 131
Jan 4	vsKENN	W 67-52	+8.5	W +23.5	148.5	U 119
Jan 8	@SHSU	L 60-72	+11.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 10	@LT	L 68-70	+6.5	W +4.5	123.5	O 138
Jan 15	vsUTEP	L 69-70	-1.5	L −2.5	125.5	O 139
Jan 17	vsNMSU	L 68-97	+4.5	L −24.5	134.5	O 165
Jan 24	@LIB	L 51-67	+15.5	L −0.5	134.5	U 118
Jan 28	@NMSU	W 73-64	+13.5	W +22.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 31	@UTEP	L 55-70	+6.5	L −8.5	128.5	U 125
Feb 4	vsLIB	L 69-75	+10.5	W +4.5	132.5	O 144
Feb 7	vsMTSU	W 89-88	+5.5	W +6.5	133.5	O 177
Feb 12	@FIU	W 68-66	+8.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 134
Feb 14	@MOST	W 76-67	+9.5	W +18.5	135.5	O 143
Feb 18	vsWKU	L 87-88	+4.5	W +3.5	139.5	O 175
Feb 21	@MTSU	L 66-78	+10.5	L −1.5	137.5	O 144
Feb 26	@JXST	L 70-80	+7.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 28	@KENN	L 82-90	+11.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BUCK

L 70-78

−5.5

BYU

L 68-85

+18.5

SPU

W 81-70

+6.5

SIU

L 59-79

−11.5

UNCG

W 73-60

+14.5

IONA

L 66-89

−21.5

DSU

L 72-75

−10.5

W 70-58

+33.5

CSUN

L 66-88

−23.5

RID

W 65-57

−0.5

MOST

L 43-61

−16.5

JXST

L 64-67

+1.5

KENN

W 67-52

+23.5

SHSU

L 60-72

−0.5

L 68-70

+4.5

UTEP

L 69-70

−2.5

NMSU

L 68-97

−24.5

LIB

L 51-67

−0.5

NMSU

W 73-64

+22.5

UTEP

L 55-70

−8.5

LIB

L 69-75

+4.5

MTSU

W 89-88

+6.5

FIU

W 68-66

+10.5

MOST

W 76-67

+18.5

WKU

L 87-88

+3.5

MTSU

L 66-78

−1.5

JXST

L 70-80

−2.5

KENN

L 82-90

+3.5

covered 14didn’t cover 14avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BUCK

L 70-78

−1.5

BYU

L 68-85

−11.5

SPU

W 81-70

+13.5

SIU

L 59-79

−15.5

UNCG

W 73-60

−9.5

IONA

L 66-89

+5.5

DSU

L 72-75

+17.5

W 70-58

−24.5

CSUN

L 66-88

+9.5

RID

W 65-57

−7.5

MOST

L 43-61

−27.5

JXST

L 64-67

+4.5

KENN

W 67-52

−29.5

SHSU

L 60-72

−12.5

L 68-70

+14.5

UTEP

L 69-70

+13.5

NMSU

L 68-97

+30.5

LIB

L 51-67

−16.5

NMSU

W 73-64

−0.5

UTEP

L 55-70

−3.5

LIB

L 69-75

+11.5

MTSU

W 89-88

+43.5

FIU

W 68-66

−13.5

MOST

W 76-67

+7.5

WKU

L 87-88

+35.5

MTSU

L 66-78

+6.5

JXST

L 70-80

+16.5

KENN

L 82-90

+28.5

over 15under 13avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Sam Houston Bearkats at Delaware Blue Hens

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Sam Houston

Delaware

Sam Houston

Delaware