San Diego State Aztecs at Nevada Wolf Pack: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 6, 11:00 PM ETLawlor Events Center · at Nevada · Conference game

#75SDSUSan Diego St73▲ winner

Final

#96NEVNevada68final

Closing lineNEV -1.5✓ SDSU covered by 6.5

Closing total141.5Under by 0.5

Season records: San Diego St and Nevada
SDSU	This season	NEV
8-4	Record	11-3
5-7	ATS	7-7
7-5	O/U	8-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SDSU 74–75 NEV · ✗ NEV (54%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SDSU	34	39	73
NEV	36	32	68

1st half: SDSU 34, NEV 36 (NEV by 2). The model had NEV by 0.6 and a total of 70.0 (actual 70).

Team stats

SDSU		NEV
28-54 52%	Field goals	21-59 36%
4-17 24%	3-pointers	8-28 29%
13-19 68%	Free throws	18-20 90%
38 12 off	Rebounds	31 13 off
18	Assists	17
7	Steals	8
5	Blocks	1
13	Turnovers	9
19	Fouls	17
42	Points in paint	16
16	Fast-break points	9

Players

SDSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Miles Byrd G	32	14	4	5	6-13	2-6
Reese Dixon-Waters G	28	10	4	0	5-9	0-2
Miles Heide F	23	10	7	0	5-5	0-0
Jeremiah Oden F	11	0	1	1	0-1	0-1
Elzie Harrington G	10	2	0	2	0-0	0-0
Bench
BJ Davis G	27	10	7	4	2-8	0-4
Taj DeGourville G	20	10	6	2	3-9	0-2
Magoon Gwath F	19	7	5	0	3-3	1-1
Sean Newman Jr. G	15	5	1	3	2-2	1-1
Pharaoh Compton F	8	3	1	0	1-1	0-0
Tae Simmons F	7	2	0	1	1-3	0-0

Did not play: Latrell Davis, Cam Lawin, Thokbor Majak, Raymar Gonzales

NEV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chuck Bailey III G	31	13	2	3	5-13	3-6
Elijah Price F	31	17	10	3	3-7	0-1
Corey Camper Jr. G	28	8	2	3	4-11	0-3
Tayshawn Comer G	28	16	2	2	5-15	2-9
Kaleb Lowery F	24	5	7	1	1-2	1-2
Bench
Tyler Rolison G	14	0	0	1	0-2	0-1
Amire Robinson G	13	3	1	3	1-3	1-3
Peyton White G	12	2	1	0	1-2	0-1
Myles Walker G	10	3	3	1	1-3	1-2
Ethan Croley F	6	1	0	0	0-1	0-0
Jeriah Coleman C	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Vaughn Weems, Christopher Baudreau, Joel Armotrading

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NEV -1.5	NEV -1.2	SDSU +0.3	W SDSU covered
Total	141.5	149.5	Over 8.0	L Under
Projected score	—	SDSU 74.2 · NEV 75.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEV -0.6	NEV -2.0
1H total	70.0	70
1H projected score	SDSU 34.7 · NEV 35.3	SDSU 34 · NEV 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU WLLWL	5-7	42%	1-0	1-3
NEV WLWWL	7-7	50%	4-4	3-5

Venue/role: SDSU away, as underdog; NEV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU OOUOO	7-5	58%	8-4
NEV UOOUU	8-6	57%	11-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
NEV	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

SDSU 6–2 NEVSDSU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · SDSU has won the last 2 meetings · SDSU 3-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2024-25	NEV 61 @ SDSU 80	SDSU -6.5	SDSU W
Jan 25, 2024-25	SDSU 69 @ NEV 50	NEV -2.5	SDSU W
Feb 9, 2023-24	SDSU 66 @ NEV 70	NEV -3.5	NEV W
Jan 17, 2023-24	NEV 59 @ SDSU 71	SDSU -5.5	SDSU W
Jan 31, 2022-23	SDSU 66 @ NEV 75	NEV +2.5	NEV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

San Diego St

12 games played

Straight up

8-4

67% wins

Against the spread

5-7

42% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-5

58% overs · avg +15.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-467%

W W L L W L W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-742%

W L L L W L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-558%

U U O U O O U O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLBSU	W 77-45	-25.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 9	vsIDST	W 73-57	-21.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsTROY	L 107-108	-14.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 215
Nov 24	vsMICH	L 54-94	+6.5	L −33.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 25	vsORE	W 97-80	+2.5	W +19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsBAY	L 81-91	+2.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 172
Dec 3	vsUVU	W 77-66	-8.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 10	vsLAM	W 89-71	-17.5	W +0.5	135.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsAF	W 81-58	-24.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 139
Dec 20	vsARIZ	L 45-68	+13.5	L −9.5	153.5	U 113
Dec 30	@SJSU	W 81-68	-11.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsBOIS	W 110-107	-4.5	L −1.5	138.5	O 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

+6.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

−15.5

MICH

L 54-94

−33.5

ORE

W 97-80

+19.5

BAY

L 81-91

−7.5

UVU

W 77-66

+2.5

LAM

W 89-71

+0.5

W 81-58

−1.5

ARIZ

L 45-68

−9.5

SJSU

W 81-68

+1.5

BOIS

W 110-107

−1.5

covered 5didn’t cover 7avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

−13.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

+77.5

MICH

L 54-94

−0.5

ORE

W 97-80

+35.5

BAY

L 81-91

+23.5

UVU

W 77-66

−1.5

LAM

W 89-71

+24.5

W 81-58

+3.5

ARIZ

L 45-68

−40.5

SJSU

W 81-68

+7.5

BOIS

W 110-107

+78.5

over 7under 5avg +15.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nevada

14 games played

Straight up

11-3

79% wins

Against the spread

7-7

50% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-6

57% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-379%

W W W L L W L W W W W W W W

7 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-750%

W L L L L W L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-657%

U O O O O U O O U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLT	W 77-50	-9.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 8	vsPAC	W 78-77	-13.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsSIU	W 86-81	-11.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 15	@SCU	L 83-98	+6.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsUCD	L 71-75	-12.5	L −16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 22	vsUCSB	W 77-64	-5.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 27	vsWASH	L 66-83	+3.5	L −13.5	145.5	O 149
Nov 28	vsSF	W 81-65	+5.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 146
Dec 2	vsUCSD	W 76-70	-5.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 146
Dec 7	@WSU	W 78-64	+2.5	W +16.5	145.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsDUQ	W 78-75	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 153
Dec 20	vsBOIS	W 81-66	+3.5	W +18.5	141.5	O 147
Dec 30	@CSU	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@FRES	W 66-65	-4.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 77-50

+17.5

PAC

W 78-77

−12.5

SIU

W 86-81

−6.5

SCU

L 83-98

−8.5

UCD

L 71-75

−16.5

UCSB

W 77-64

+7.5

WASH

L 66-83

−13.5

W 81-65

+21.5

UCSD

W 76-70

+0.5

WSU

W 78-64

+16.5

DUQ

W 78-75

−2.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+18.5

CSU

W 75-62

+14.5

FRES

W 66-65

−3.5

covered 7didn’t cover 7avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 77-50

−9.5

PAC

W 78-77

+15.5

SIU

W 86-81

+14.5

SCU

L 83-98

+36.5

UCD

L 71-75

+2.5

UCSB

W 77-64

−6.5

WASH

L 66-83

+3.5

W 81-65

+3.5

UCSD

W 76-70

−3.5

WSU

W 78-64

−3.5

DUQ

W 78-75

+1.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+5.5

CSU

W 75-62

−2.5

FRES

W 66-65

−15.5

over 8under 6avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

San Diego State Aztecs at Nevada Wolf Pack

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

San Diego St

Nevada

San Diego St

Nevada