Little Rock Trojans at Eastern Illinois Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Feb 14, 4:30 PM ETGroniger Arena · at E Illinois · Conference game

Final

#361EIUE Illinois78▲ winner

Closing lineLR -2.5✓ EIU covered by 8.5

Closing total134.5Over by 15.5

Season records: Little Rock and E Illinois
LR	This season	EIU
8-16	Record	7-16
10-14	ATS	13-10
12-12	O/U	9-14

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LR 67–67 EIU · ✗ EIU (50%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LR	30	42	72
EIU	34	44	78

1st half: LR 30, EIU 34 (EIU by 4). The model had LR by 0.2 and a total of 63.0 (actual 64).

Team stats

LR		EIU
27-60 45%	Field goals	25-64 39%
7-18 39%	3-pointers	6-16 38%
11-18 61%	Free throws	22-30 73%
34 13 off	Rebounds	43 20 off
16	Assists	13
4	Steals	7
4	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	8
20	Fouls	14
30	Points in paint	34
17	Fast-break points	21

Players

LR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kachi Nzeh F	38	13	7	1	5-9	2-5
Johnathan Lawson G	37	12	7	4	4-15	1-4
Braxton Bayless G	34	12	3	6	4-12	1-4
Cameron Wallace F	30	10	7	2	4-6	0-0
Tuongthach Gatkek F	25	6	2	2	3-6	0-0
Bench
Truman Claytor IV F	27	17	2	1	6-10	3-5
Caleb Pennyfeather F	5	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Tracy Steele Jr. G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Khasen Robinson, Travonne Jackson, Joseph Thomas, Christian Hughes, Kellen Robinson, Terrion Burgess, KK Robinson

EIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Zion Fruster G	37	17	4	6	6-14	1-4
Kooper Jacobi F	35	10	8	1	4-7	1-1
Meechie White G	32	19	2	3	5-12	3-4
Terry McMorris F	29	8	6	0	2-9	0-1
Nazareth Fisher F	27	10	9	2	4-7	0-0
Bench
Preston Turner G	14	2	2	0	1-7	0-4
Markus Blackwell G	13	5	0	1	1-4	1-2
Prince Johnson F	13	7	6	0	2-4	0-0

Did not play: Andrew Austin, Shane Sims, Malik Olafioye, Kyle Layton, JT Elder, Andre Washington

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LR -2.5	LR -0.1	EIU +2.4	W EIU covered
Total	134.5	134.4	Under 0.1	L Over
Projected score	—	LR 67.3 · EIU 67.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LR -0.2	EIU -4.0
1H total	63.0	64
1H projected score	LR 31.6 · EIU 31.4	LR 30 · EIU 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LR LWLLW	10-14	42%	8-9	4-3
EIU LLWWL	13-10	57%	5-4	13-8

Venue/role: LR away, as favorite; EIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LR OUOUU	12-12	50%	8-16
EIU OUUUO	9-14	39%	7-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LR	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
EIU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

LR 3–4 EIUEIU leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · LR 2-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 15, 2025-26	EIU 63 @ LR 74	LR -6.5	LR W
Feb 27, 2024-25	LR 60 @ EIU 71	EIU +5.5	EIU W
Jan 27, 2024-25	EIU 56 vs LR 54	LR -10.5	EIU W
Feb 3, 2023-24	LR 71 @ EIU 47	EIU +2.5	LR W
Jan 6, 2023-24	EIU 90 @ LR 88	LR -9.5	EIU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Little Rock

24 games played

Straight up

8-16

33% wins

Against the spread

10-14

42% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-12

50% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-1633%

L L W L L L L L L L W W L W W W W L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

10-1442%

L L W L L W L L L L W W L W W W L W L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-1250%

O U U O U U U O O O U U O O O O O U U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@MILW	L 72-92	+3.5	L −16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@MARQ	L 49-89	+21.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BALL	W 68-62	+2.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 18	@MUR	L 68-89	+13.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 21	@TXST	L 56-65	+5.5	L −3.5	131.5	U 121
Nov 29	@SIU	L 65-74	+13.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 3	@CARK	L 47-85	+3.5	L −34.5	138.5	U 132
Dec 6	vsARST	L 78-90	+9.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 168
Dec 9	@WVU	L 58-90	+27.5	L −4.5	132.5	O 148
Dec 16	@MORE	L 64-78	+2.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 142
Dec 18	@USI	W 77-62	-2.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 139
Jan 1	vsTNTC	W 77-58	-1.5	W +17.5	144.5	U 135
Jan 3	vsTNST	L 79-84	+1.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 163
Jan 8	@SIUE	W 73-70	+3.5	W +6.5	131.5	O 143
Jan 10	@LIN	W 82-74	+6.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsEIU	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 17	vsWIU	W 86-79	-10.5	L −3.5	135.5	O 165
Jan 22	@SEMO	L 65-70	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 29	@TNST	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	@TNTC	L 77-87	-1.5	L −11.5	141.5	O 164
Feb 3	@UTM	L 52-55	+6.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 107
Feb 5	vsLIN	L 74-79	+1.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 153
Feb 7	vsSIUE	L 61-71	-1.5	L −11.5	132.5	U 132
Feb 12	@WIU	W 77-58	-7.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

−16.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−18.5

BALL

W 68-62

+8.5

MUR

L 68-89

−7.5

TXST

L 56-65

−3.5

SIU

L 65-74

+4.5

CARK

L 47-85

−34.5

ARST

L 78-90

−2.5

WVU

L 58-90

−4.5

L 64-78

−11.5

USI

W 77-62

+12.5

TNTC

W 77-58

+17.5

TNST

L 79-84

−3.5

SIUE

W 73-70

+6.5

LIN

W 82-74

+14.5

EIU

W 74-63

+4.5

WIU

W 86-79

−3.5

SEMO

L 65-70

+0.5

TNST

L 63-70

−2.5

TNTC

L 77-87

−11.5

UTM

L 52-55

+3.5

LIN

L 74-79

−3.5

SIUE

L 61-71

−11.5

WIU

W 77-58

+11.5

covered 10didn’t cover 14avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

+7.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−17.5

BALL

W 68-62

−16.5

MUR

L 68-89

+3.5

TXST

L 56-65

−10.5

SIU

L 65-74

−2.5

CARK

L 47-85

−6.5

ARST

L 78-90

+20.5

WVU

L 58-90

+15.5

L 64-78

+5.5

USI

W 77-62

−1.5

TNTC

W 77-58

−9.5

TNST

L 79-84

+18.5

SIUE

W 73-70

+11.5

LIN

W 82-74

+6.5

EIU

W 74-63

+3.5

WIU

W 86-79

+29.5

SEMO

L 65-70

−10.5

TNST

L 63-70

−17.5

TNTC

L 77-87

+22.5

UTM

L 52-55

−32.5

LIN

L 74-79

+3.5

SIUE

L 61-71

−0.5

WIU

W 77-58

−6.5

over 12under 12avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

E Illinois

23 games played

Straight up

7-16

30% wins

Against the spread

13-10

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-14

39% overs · avg −3.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-1630%

L W L L L L L L L W L L W W W L W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1057%

W W W L L L W L W W W W W W L L W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-1439%

U U U O O O O U U O U U U U U O U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@VAL	L 63-66	+5.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	vsNICH	W 65-57	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 11	@ND	L 58-78	+23.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 14	@UK	L 53-99	+35.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 25	@CARK	L 60-81	+5.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 28	@PUR	L 62-109	+40.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 171
Dec 6	vsLIN	L 74-82	+8.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsEKU	L 59-68	+6.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 127
Dec 14	@ISU	L 53-78	+43.5	W +18.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 18	vsSIUE	W 76-72	+6.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 148
Jan 1	@SEMO	L 59-68	+12.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 3	@UTM	L 61-65	+10.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 126
Jan 8	vsTNTC	W 71-61	+1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 10	vsTNST	W 74-70	+3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 13	vsWIU	W 57-55	-6.5	L −4.5	132.5	U 112
Jan 15	@LR	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 22	@USI	W 59-51	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 110
Jan 24	@MORE	L 68-73	+4.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 141
Jan 29	vsUTM	L 68-76	+3.5	L −4.5	129.5	O 144
Jan 31	vsSEMO	L 59-77	+4.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 136
Feb 5	@TNST	L 68-77	+9.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 145
Feb 7	@TNTC	W 60-54	+4.5	W +10.5	140.5	U 114
Feb 10	@WIU	L 70-79	-4.5	L −13.5	133.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

+2.5

NICH

W 65-57

+10.5

L 58-78

+3.5

L 53-99

−10.5

CARK

L 60-81

−15.5

PUR

L 62-109

−6.5

LIN

L 74-82

+0.5

EKU

L 59-68

−2.5

ISU

L 53-78

+18.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+10.5

SEMO

L 59-68

+3.5

UTM

L 61-65

+6.5

TNTC

W 71-61

+11.5

TNST

W 74-70

+7.5

WIU

W 57-55

−4.5

L 63-74

−4.5

USI

W 59-51

+10.5

L 68-73

−0.5

UTM

L 68-76

−4.5

SEMO

L 59-77

−13.5

TNST

L 68-77

+0.5

TNTC

W 60-54

+10.5

WIU

L 70-79

−13.5

covered 13didn’t cover 10avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

−15.5

NICH

W 65-57

−13.5

L 58-78

−7.5

L 53-99

+4.5

CARK

L 60-81

+1.5

PUR

L 62-109

+29.5

LIN

L 74-82

+10.5

EKU

L 59-68

−22.5

ISU

L 53-78

−13.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+13.5

SEMO

L 59-68

−19.5

UTM

L 61-65

−7.5

TNTC

W 71-61

−8.5

TNST

W 74-70

−0.5

WIU

W 57-55

−20.5

L 63-74

+3.5

USI

W 59-51

−25.5

L 68-73

+6.5

UTM

L 68-76

+14.5

SEMO

L 59-77

−2.5

TNST

L 68-77

−0.5

TNTC

W 60-54

−26.5

WIU

L 70-79

+15.5

over 9under 14avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Little Rock Trojans at Eastern Illinois Panthers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Little Rock

E Illinois

Little Rock

E Illinois