Tennessee State Tigers at Eastern Illinois Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 4:30 PM ETGroniger Arena · at E Illinois · Conference game

Final

#361EIUE Illinois74▲ winner

Closing lineTNST -3.5✓ EIU covered by 7.5

Closing total144.5Under by 0.5

Season records: Tennessee St and E Illinois
TNST	This season	EIU
7-5	Record	3-10
9-3	ATS	9-4
7-5	O/U	5-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TNST 74–72 EIU · ✗ TNST (60%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TNST	33	37	70
EIU	42	32	74

1st half: TNST 33, EIU 42 (EIU by 9). The model had TNST by 1.8 and a total of 68.4 (actual 75).

Team stats

TNST		EIU
24-59 41%	Field goals	28-61 46%
6-23 26%	3-pointers	9-20 45%
16-22 73%	Free throws	9-11 82%
35 11 off	Rebounds	38 11 off
14	Assists	21
6	Steals	8
8	Blocks	4
12	Turnovers	11
15	Fouls	18
26	Points in paint	34
12	Fast-break points	18

Players

TNST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dante Harris G	37	6	8	7	2-8	0-1
Travis Harper II G	33	18	6	1	5-9	1-4
Jalen Pitre F	31	4	6	0	2-4	0-0
Aaron Nkrumah G	17	8	3	2	3-9	1-3
Antoine Lorick III F	14	0	4	1	0-5	0-2
Bench
Carlous Williams F	28	11	2	0	4-8	1-4
Khalil London G	25	23	2	2	8-15	3-9
Kavien Jones F	8	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Damon Howard Jr. G	7	0	0	1	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Jabrion Spikes, Jean Lafleur, Jayden Jones, Ogien Ayo, Maddux Bodenhamer, JC Brooks, Alex Garcia

EIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kooper Jacobi F	39	14	5	4	5-11	1-2
Meechie White G	31	7	7	7	3-9	1-3
Nazareth Fisher F	29	8	5	0	4-5	0-0
Andre Washington G	19	12	2	0	5-12	2-5
Terry McMorris F	6	0	3	2	0-1	0-0
Bench
Zion Fruster G	31	19	2	5	7-14	1-5
Preston Turner G	23	14	3	1	4-7	4-5
Malik Olafioye G	11	0	0	2	0-0	0-0
Prince Johnson F	11	0	3	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Shane Sims, Andrew Austin, Markus Blackwell, Kyle Layton, JT Elder

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TNST -3.5	TNST -2.8	EIU +0.7	W EIU covered
Total	144.5	146.1	Over 1.6	L Under
Projected score	—	TNST 74.4 · EIU 71.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TNST -1.8	EIU -9.0
1H total	68.4	75
1H projected score	TNST 35.1 · EIU 33.3	TNST 33 · EIU 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TNST WLWWW	9-3	75%	8-2	4-1
EIU WWWWW	9-4	69%	4-1	9-4

Venue/role: TNST away, as favorite; EIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TNST OOOOO	7-5	58%	7-5
EIU UOUUU	5-8	38%	3-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TNST	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
EIU	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

TNST 7–1 EIUTNST leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · TNST has won the last 7 meetings · TNST 5-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 13, 2024-25	TNST 66 @ EIU 49	EIU +1.5	TNST W
Jan 18, 2024-25	EIU 65 @ TNST 84	TNST -4.5	TNST W
Feb 22, 2023-24	EIU 73 @ TNST 78	TNST -6	EIU W
Jan 27, 2023-24	TNST 64 @ EIU 60	EIU +2.5	TNST W
Feb 4, 2022-23	TNST 65 @ EIU 61	EIU +2.5	TNST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tennessee St

12 games played

Straight up

7-5

58% wins

Against the spread

9-3

75% covers · avg +3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-5

58% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-558%

L L L W W L W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-375%

W L W W W L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-558%

O O U U U U U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@BEL	L 79-87	+13.5	W +5.5	158.5	O 166
Nov 16	@WKU	L 82-95	+12.5	L −0.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 20	@TENN	L 60-89	+31.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 25	@UNCA	W 75-73	+5.5	W +7.5	164.5	U 148
Nov 30	@UTC	W 70-64	+8.5	W +14.5	155.5	U 134
Dec 3	@AAMU	L 53-80	-4.5	L −31.5	147.5	U 133
Dec 13	@UNLV	W 63-60	+12.5	W +15.5	161.5	U 123
Dec 18	vsUTM	W 78-71	-2.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 149
Dec 20	vsSEMO	L 82-91	+1.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 173
Dec 30	@TNTC	W 88-76	-1.5	W +10.5	155.5	O 164
Jan 3	@LR	W 84-79	-1.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 163
Jan 8	@WIU	W 90-68	-6.5	W +15.5	145.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BEL

L 79-87

+5.5

WKU

L 82-95

−0.5

TENN

L 60-89

+2.5

UNCA

W 75-73

+7.5

UTC

W 70-64

+14.5

AAMU

L 53-80

−31.5

UNLV

W 63-60

+15.5

UTM

W 78-71

+4.5

SEMO

L 82-91

−7.5

TNTC

W 88-76

+10.5

W 84-79

+3.5

WIU

W 90-68

+15.5

covered 9didn’t cover 3avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BEL

L 79-87

+7.5

WKU

L 82-95

+9.5

TENN

L 60-89

−8.5

UNCA

W 75-73

−16.5

UTC

W 70-64

−21.5

AAMU

L 53-80

−14.5

UNLV

W 63-60

−38.5

UTM

W 78-71

+7.5

SEMO

L 82-91

+21.5

TNTC

W 88-76

+8.5

W 84-79

+18.5

WIU

W 90-68

+12.5

over 7under 5avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

E Illinois

13 games played

Straight up

3-10

23% wins

Against the spread

9-4

69% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-8

38% overs · avg −3.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1023%

L W L L L L L L L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-469%

W W W L L L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-838%

U U U O O O O U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@VAL	L 63-66	+5.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	vsNICH	W 65-57	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 11	@ND	L 58-78	+23.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 14	@UK	L 53-99	+35.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 25	@CARK	L 60-81	+5.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 28	@PUR	L 62-109	+40.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 171
Dec 6	vsLIN	L 74-82	+8.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsEKU	L 59-68	+6.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 127
Dec 14	@ISU	L 53-78	+43.5	W +18.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 18	vsSIUE	W 76-72	+6.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 148
Jan 1	@SEMO	L 59-68	+12.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 3	@UTM	L 61-65	+10.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 126
Jan 8	vsTNTC	W 71-61	+1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

+2.5

NICH

W 65-57

+10.5

L 58-78

+3.5

L 53-99

−10.5

CARK

L 60-81

−15.5

PUR

L 62-109

−6.5

LIN

L 74-82

+0.5

EKU

L 59-68

−2.5

ISU

L 53-78

+18.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+10.5

SEMO

L 59-68

+3.5

UTM

L 61-65

+6.5

TNTC

W 71-61

+11.5

covered 9didn’t cover 4avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

−15.5

NICH

W 65-57

−13.5

L 58-78

−7.5

L 53-99

+4.5

CARK

L 60-81

+1.5

PUR

L 62-109

+29.5

LIN

L 74-82

+10.5

EKU

L 59-68

−22.5

ISU

L 53-78

−13.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+13.5

SEMO

L 59-68

−19.5

UTM

L 61-65

−7.5

TNTC

W 71-61

−8.5

over 5under 8avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tennessee State Tigers at Eastern Illinois Panthers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Tennessee St

E Illinois

Tennessee St

E Illinois