IU Indianapolis Jaguars at Loyola Chicago Ramblers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 8:00 PM ETGentile Arena · at Loyola Chicago

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: IU Indy and Loyola Chicago
IUIN	This season	LUC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LUC 85–68 · win probability LUC 93%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LUC has more of the edges

IUIN 1, LUC 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

IUINBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IUIN 15.8%, LUC 19.8%. Forced: IUIN 19.2%, LUC 12.9%

LUCBig

LUC offense vs IUIN defense

Offense 132nd of 366 against a defense 364th, on the model’s ratings

LUCBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: IUIN 21.7, LUC 34.8. Allowed: IUIN 46.6, LUC 33.6

Context

Schedule so far

IUIN has played the 284th-hardest schedule, LUC the 112th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LUCBig

IUIN offense vs LUC defense

Offense 249th of 366 against a defense 90th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: IUIN plays 75.3 a game (4th fastest), LUC 66.1 (309th). Faster games mean more points

LUCBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IUIN 28.7%, LUC 30.5%. Defensive: IUIN 64.5%, LUC 70.3%

LUCSmall

Home court

LUC at home. This season: LUC 0-0 at home, IUIN 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: IUIN 52.2 and allows 58.2; LUC 49.8 and allows 52.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IUIN 14%, LUC 22%. Transfers in: IUIN 3, LUC 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

IUIN hits 32.4% and allows 38.5%; LUC hits 31.7% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 42.1% and 47.7% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LUC -16.7	—
Total	—	153.3	—
Projected score	—	IUIN 68.3 · LUC 85

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LUC -9.8	—
1H total	71.6	—
1H projected score	IUIN 30.9 · LUC 40.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IUIN WLLLL	12-18	40%	7-10	—
LUC WWWWW	13-20	39%	6-10	—

Venue/role: IUIN away; LUC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
IUIN OUUOO	13-17	43%	5-25
LUC UUUOU	15-18	45%	9-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IUIN	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
LUC	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

IU Indy

No more games listed yet.

Loyola Chicago

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

IU Indy

30 games played

Straight up

5-25

17% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2517%

L L L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L W L W L L W L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

W L L W L L L W L L L W L W W L L W L W L W W L W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U O U O U U U U U O U U U O O U O U O U O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OSU	L 102-118	+33.5	W +17.5	172.5	O 220
Nov 6	vsLIU	L 90-94	-4.5	L −8.5	185.5	U 184
Nov 8	@BTLR	L 80-112	+20.5	L −11.5	192.5	U 192
Nov 14	@EMU	W 90-83	+4.5	W +11.5	186.5	U 173
Nov 18	@CHSO	L 91-103	-1.5	L −13.5	188.5	O 194
Nov 21	vsALST	L 80-101	-2.5	L −23.5	181.5	U 181
Nov 23	@AF	L 85-98	+3.5	L −9.5	175.5	O 183
Nov 29	vsMORE	W 85-80	-3.5	W +1.5	181.5	U 165
Dec 3	@DETM	L 78-92	+3.5	L −10.5	180.5	U 170
Dec 6	vsYSU	L 55-78	+6.5	L −16.5	171.5	U 133
Dec 11	vsGB	L 75-85	-3.5	L −13.5	165.5	U 160
Dec 22	@GCU	L 78-91	+23.5	W +10.5	169.5	U 169
Dec 29	@CLE	L 86-99	+1.5	L −11.5	172.5	O 185
Jan 1	@NKU	L 72-81	+13.5	W +4.5	176.5	U 153
Jan 4	vsWRST	L 77-81	+8.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 9	@GB	L 59-75	+6.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 134
Jan 11	@MILW	L 83-95	+8.5	L −3.5	165.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsRMU	W 96-93	+5.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 189
Jan 17	vsDETM	L 77-80	-1.5	L −4.5	169.5	U 157
Jan 21	@OAK	W 103-85	+14.5	W +32.5	176.5	O 188
Jan 28	@RMU	L 58-74	+8.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 132
Jan 30	@YSU	L 76-85	+10.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 161
Feb 7	vsCLE	W 82-74	-2.5	W +5.5	169.5	U 156
Feb 10	vsMILW	L 88-92	+2.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 12	vsNKU	L 81-84	+5.5	W +2.5	164.5	O 165
Feb 15	@PFW	L 78-83	+7.5	W +2.5	159.5	O 161
Feb 19	@WRST	L 73-85	+11.5	L −0.5	160.5	U 158
Feb 25	vsOAK	L 74-86	+5.5	L −6.5	169.5	U 160
Feb 28	vsPFW	L 81-87	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 168
Mar 2	@CLE	L 93-101	-2.5	L −10.5	169.5	O 194

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OSU

L 102-118

+17.5

LIU

L 90-94

−8.5

BTLR

L 80-112

−11.5

EMU

W 90-83

+11.5

CHSO

L 91-103

−13.5

ALST

L 80-101

−23.5

L 85-98

−9.5

W 85-80

+1.5

DETM

L 78-92

−10.5

YSU

L 55-78

−16.5

L 75-85

−13.5

GCU

L 78-91

+10.5

CLE

L 86-99

−11.5

NKU

L 72-81

+4.5

WRST

L 77-81

+4.5

L 59-75

−9.5

MILW

L 83-95

−3.5

RMU

W 96-93

+8.5

DETM

L 77-80

−4.5

OAK

W 103-85

+32.5

RMU

L 58-74

−7.5

YSU

L 76-85

+1.5

CLE

W 82-74

+5.5

MILW

L 88-92

−1.5

NKU

L 81-84

+2.5

PFW

L 78-83

+2.5

WRST

L 73-85

−0.5

OAK

L 74-86

−6.5

PFW

L 81-87

−4.5

CLE

L 93-101

−10.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OSU

L 102-118

+47.5

LIU

L 90-94

−1.5

BTLR

L 80-112

−0.5

EMU

W 90-83

−13.5

CHSO

L 91-103

+5.5

ALST

L 80-101

−0.5

L 85-98

+7.5

W 85-80

−16.5

DETM

L 78-92

−10.5

YSU

L 55-78

−38.5

L 75-85

−5.5

GCU

L 78-91

−0.5

CLE

L 86-99

+12.5

NKU

L 72-81

−23.5

WRST

L 77-81

−4.5

L 59-75

−22.5

MILW

L 83-95

+12.5

RMU

W 96-93

+28.5

DETM

L 77-80

−12.5

OAK

W 103-85

+11.5

RMU

L 58-74

−30.5

YSU

L 76-85

+7.5

CLE

W 82-74

−13.5

MILW

L 88-92

+21.5

NKU

L 81-84

+0.5

PFW

L 78-83

+1.5

WRST

L 73-85

−2.5

OAK

L 74-86

−9.5

PFW

L 81-87

+4.5

CLE

L 93-101

+24.5

over 13under 17avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Loyola Chicago

33 games played

Straight up

9-24

27% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2427%

W L L L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-2039%

L L L L L L L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L L W W L L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1845%

O U U O U U U U O O O O O U U O O O U O U O O U O U U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCLE	W 91-88	-17.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 6	vsMERC	L 65-73	-21.5	L −29.5	144.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsUNT	L 62-64	-1.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 13	@WICH	L 74-95	+5.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsCSU	L 67-80	+3.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 147
Nov 21	vsNIU	L 59-76	-13.5	L −30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	vsUNI	L 51-72	+8.5	L −12.5	134.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsSJSU	L 51-63	+1.5	L −10.5	136.5	U 114
Dec 2	vsCMU	W 83-72	-6.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 155
Dec 6	vsPRIN	W 73-68	-6.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 14	vsCHST	L 75-84	-15.5	L −24.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 17	@SF	L 71-85	+11.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsSCU	W 80-78	+15.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 158
Dec 31	@URI	W 61-57	+9.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsDAY	L 68-70	+7.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 138
Jan 7	vsDAV	L 64-79	+1.5	L −13.5	136.5	O 143
Jan 10	@GW	L 66-101	+14.5	L −20.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 13	vsGMU	L 74-82	+11.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 16	@DAY	L 51-78	+16.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 129
Jan 20	@SBU	L 70-84	+10.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 24	vsDUQ	L 59-71	+5.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 130
Jan 27	vsJOES	L 64-85	+1.5	L −19.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 30	@VCU	L 75-89	+18.5	W +4.5	150.5	O 164
Feb 3	vsLAS	W 71-61	-2.5	W +7.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 6	@DAV	L 64-84	+9.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 148
Feb 13	vsSLU	L 59-86	+17.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 145
Feb 18	@FOR	L 59-62	+8.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 121
Feb 21	@JOES	L 61-75	+9.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 136
Feb 28	vsRICH	W 69-66	+2.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 135
Mar 4	@SLU	L 65-79	+21.5	W +7.5	155.5	U 144
Mar 7	vsGW	W 68-62	+9.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 130
Mar 11	vsRICH	W 75-67	+4.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Mar 12	vsDAV	L 59-64	+5.5	W +0.5	132.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

−14.5

MERC

L 65-73

−29.5

UNT

L 62-64

−3.5

WICH

L 74-95

−15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−9.5

NIU

L 59-76

−30.5

UNI

L 51-72

−12.5

SJSU

L 51-63

−10.5

CMU

W 83-72

+4.5

PRIN

W 73-68

−1.5

CHST

L 75-84

−24.5

L 71-85

−2.5

SCU

W 80-78

+17.5

URI

W 61-57

+13.5

DAY

L 68-70

+5.5

DAV

L 64-79

−13.5

L 66-101

−20.5

GMU

L 74-82

+3.5

DAY

L 51-78

−10.5

SBU

L 70-84

−3.5

DUQ

L 59-71

−6.5

JOES

L 64-85

−19.5

VCU

L 75-89

+4.5

LAS

W 71-61

+7.5

DAV

L 64-84

−10.5

SLU

L 59-86

−9.5

FOR

L 59-62

+5.5

JOES

L 61-75

−4.5

RICH

W 69-66

+5.5

SLU

L 65-79

+7.5

W 68-62

+15.5

RICH

W 75-67

+12.5

DAV

L 59-64

+0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

+27.5

MERC

L 65-73

−6.5

UNT

L 62-64

−12.5

WICH

L 74-95

+15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−4.5

NIU

L 59-76

−13.5

UNI

L 51-72

−11.5

SJSU

L 51-63

−22.5

CMU

W 83-72

+14.5

PRIN

W 73-68

+4.5

CHST

L 75-84

+18.5

L 71-85

+12.5

SCU

W 80-78

+6.5

URI

W 61-57

−27.5

DAY

L 68-70

−2.5

DAV

L 64-79

+6.5

L 66-101

+12.5

GMU

L 74-82

+15.5

DAY

L 51-78

−12.5

SBU

L 70-84

+6.5

DUQ

L 59-71

−22.5

JOES

L 64-85

+5.5

VCU

L 75-89

+13.5

LAS

W 71-61

−8.5

DAV

L 64-84

+7.5

SLU

L 59-86

−10.5

FOR

L 59-62

−14.5

JOES

L 61-75

−6.5

RICH

W 69-66

−11.5

SLU

L 65-79

−11.5

W 68-62

−18.5

RICH

W 75-67

+0.5

DAV

L 59-64

−9.5

over 15under 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Loyola Chicago has the better starters

Position by position: IU Indy 0, Loyola Chicago 3, even 2

IU IndyBetterLoyola Chicago

G B. Smith TR8.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 18

LUCBig

G D. Hand TR12.4 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 58

G G. Etchison TR9 pts · 1.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 93

Even

G D. Nessah TR15.8 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 91

G J. Clarke TR3.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 34

Even

G R. Agarwal TR5.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26

F K. Tinsley7.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 17

LUCBig

F E. Ricks TR7.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 53

F R. Hagy2.1 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 2

LUCBig

F X. Amos11.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 65

IU IndyBetterLoyola Chicago

IUIN offense249th of 366 · -7.5

LUCBig

LUC defense90th of 366 · -0.2

IUIN defense364th of 366 · -12.3

LUCBig

LUC offense132nd of 366 · -3.9

Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players

LUCSmall

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt-3.2 · 2 players

LUCBig

Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+0.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIUIN betterLUC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

IU Indy

Guards

B. Smith24 min · TRG. Etchison14 min · TRJ. Clarke13 min · TRM. Pastorcic-StraunNewP. HeissNewT. DrexlerNew

Forwards

K. Tinsley18 minR. Hagy11 minP. IdiaruNewA. ArnettNewM. StackhouseNew

Loyola Chicago

Guards

D. Hand31 min · TRD. Nessah28 min · TRR. Agarwal22 min · TRN. Anderson17 minJ. Dawson10 min · TRC. Jeffrey8 min · TR

Forwards

E. Ricks27 min · TRX. Amos26 minE. Rapieque15 min · TRA. WingNew

Centers

J. Schofield17 min · TRM. Diallo7 min · TRR. KreagerNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IUIN80.9 #49

LUC66.8 #337

Points per possession

IUIN1.07 #200

LUC1.01 #313

Pace (possessions)

IUIN75.3 #4

LUC66.1 #309

Shooting

Effective FG%

IUIN52.2 #136

LUC49.8 #246

3-point %

IUIN32.4 #258

LUC31.7 #296

3-point attempt rate

IUIN42.1 #134

LUC47.7 #27

Free throw rate

IUIN21.7 #365

LUC34.8 #188

Possessions

Turnover rate

IUIN15.8 #127

LUC19.8 #343

Offensive rebound rate

IUIN28.7 #243

LUC30.5 #179

Assists per game

IUIN18.9 #3

LUC13.9 #151

Defense

Points allowed

IUIN89.2 #364

LUC75.8 #212

Points allowed per possession

IUIN1.19 #353

LUC1.14 #315

Opponent effective FG%

IUIN58.2 #362

LUC52.0 #214

Opponent 3-point %

IUIN38.5 #361

LUC36.8 #342

Turnovers forced

IUIN19.2 #41

LUC12.9 #357

Defensive rebound rate

IUIN64.5 #348

LUC70.3 #146

Steals per game

IUIN8.0 #39

LUC4.1 #363

Blocks per game

IUIN2.9 #243

LUC3.8 #101

IUIN		LUC
Scoring
80.9 #49	Points per game	66.8 #337
1.07 #200	Points per possession	1.01 #313
75.3 #4	Pace (possessions)	66.1 #309
Shooting
52.2 #136	Effective FG%	49.8 #246
32.4 #258	3-point %	31.7 #296
42.1 #134	3-point attempt rate	47.7 #27
21.7 #365	Free throw rate	34.8 #188
Possessions
15.8 #127	Turnover rate	19.8 #343
28.7 #243	Offensive rebound rate	30.5 #179
18.9 #3	Assists per game	13.9 #151
Defense
89.2 #364	Points allowed	75.8 #212
1.19 #353	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #315
58.2 #362	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #214
38.5 #361	Opponent 3-point %	36.8 #342
19.2 #41	Turnovers forced	12.9 #357
64.5 #348	Defensive rebound rate	70.3 #146
8.0 #39	Steals per game	4.1 #363
2.9 #243	Blocks per game	3.8 #101

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

IU Indy

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Cleveland St93–101
Lvs Purdue FW81–87
Lvs Oakland74–86
L@ Wright St73–85
L@ Purdue FW78–83

A week or more of rest.

Loyola Chicago

9-24 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Davidson59–64
Wvs Richmond75–67
Wvs G Washington68–62
L@ Saint Louis65–79
Wvs Richmond69–66

A week or more of rest.

IU Indianapolis Jaguars at Loyola Chicago Ramblers

What could decide it: LUC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

IU Indy

Loyola Chicago

Loyola Chicago has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

IU Indy

Loyola Chicago