1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. BEL @ UAB
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

Belmont Bruins at UAB Blazers

Bartow Arena · at UAB
#138BELBelmont
@
#102UABUAB
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BELThis seasonUAB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UAB 81–76 · win probability UAB 67%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UAB has more of the edges

BEL 3, UAB 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BELBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: BEL 61.0 and allows 49.9; UAB 48.4 and allows 50.0
BELBig
Three-pointers
BEL hits 41.0% and allows 34.2%; UAB hits 27.8% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 45.7% and 30.5% of their shots
UABBig
UAB offense vs BEL defense
Offense 82nd of 366 against a defense 192nd, on the model’s ratings
UABSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BEL 28.8%, UAB 32.5%. Defensive: BEL 70.8%, UAB 72.3%
UABSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BEL 18.0%, UAB 12.6%. Forced: BEL 17.4%, UAB 16.1%
UABSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: BEL 32.5, UAB 36.4. Allowed: BEL 30.7, UAB 28.6
BELSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BEL 41%, UAB 10%. Transfers in: BEL 4, UAB 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UABSmall
Home court
UAB at home. This season: UAB 0-0 at home, BEL 0-0 away
Even
BEL offense vs UAB defense
Offense 118th of 366 against a defense 141st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
BEL has played the 146th-hardest schedule, UAB the 129th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: BEL plays 70.5 a game (94th fastest), UAB 71.2 (61st). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UAB -5.0—
Total—156.2—
Projected score—BEL 75.6 · UAB 80.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUAB -2.8—
1H total73.0—
1H projected scoreBEL 35.1 · UAB 37.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Belmont 2, UAB 2, even 1
BelmontBetterUAB
G J. Jenkins8.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 42
Even
G J. Fernandez TR16.6 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 56
G J. Smiley8.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 81
BELSmall
G J. Elyzee TR11.1 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 61
G I. West2.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7
UABBig
G D. Jones TR16.4 pts · 4 reb · 3.4 ast Score 91
F K. Fish TR7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47
UABSmall
G E. Duval TR15.6 pts · 4 reb · 3.5 ast Score 74
F E. Dillon7.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 76
BELSmall
G T. Caldwell TR9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1 ast Score 56
BelmontBetterUAB
BEL offense118th of 366 · -2.7
Even
UAB defense141st of 366 · -3.1
BEL defense192nd of 366 · -4.5
UABSmall
UAB offense82nd of 366 · +0.4
Backcourt-2.4 · 3 players
UABBig
Backcourt+2.8 · 5 players
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-0.6 · 5 players
Even
Bench-1.4 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestBEL betterUAB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Belmont
Guards
J. Jenkins24 minJ. Smiley17 minI. West17 minM. Zobrist5 min · TRC. Haynes5 minA. Ristic3 min · TR
Forwards
K. Fish19 min · TRE. Dillon16 minG. Lemke2 minC. KnowlesNewC. GersmehlNew
Centers
V. Neugebauer8 min · TR
UAB
Guards
J. Fernandez37 min · TRJ. Elyzee30 min · TRD. Jones29 min · TRE. Duval27 min · TRT. Caldwell20 min · TRS. London20 min
Forwards
A. Alston8 min · TRA. Sandlin-ElNew
Centers
M. MboleNewK. DavisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BELUAB
Scoring
83.5 #23Points per game78.2 #92
1.18 #33Points per possession1.10 #141
70.5 #94Pace (possessions)71.2 #61
Shooting
61.0 #1Effective FG%48.4 #305
41.0 #13-point %27.8 #364
45.7 #513-point attempt rate30.5 #350
32.5 #248Free throw rate36.4 #141
Possessions
18.0 #272Turnover rate12.6 #2
28.8 #241Offensive rebound rate32.5 #104
18.5 #6Assists per game14.2 #135
Defense
74.1 #158Points allowed74.3 #168
1.05 #95Points allowed per possession1.04 #79
49.9 #93Opponent effective FG%50.0 #98
34.2 #197Opponent 3-point %32.6 #95
17.4 #126Turnovers forced16.1 #217
70.8 #118Defensive rebound rate72.3 #53
6.0 #241Steals per game7.5 #74
3.5 #151Blocks per game3.5 #139
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Belmont

25-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Drake79–100
  • L@ Illinois St74–81
  • Wvs Evansville98–64
  • Wvs Indiana St87–70
  • W@ Murray St87–70

A week or more of rest.

UAB

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Charlotte78–83
  • Wvs East Carolina90–83
  • W@ Charlotte80–74
  • Lvs North Texas58–62
  • W@ Memphis78–67

A week or more of rest.