Denver Pioneers at Kansas City Roos: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 12:00 AM ETSwinney Center · at Kansas City

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Denver and Kansas City
DEN	This season	KC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 79–74 · win probability DEN 65%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

DEN 6, KC 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DENBig

Three-pointers

DEN hits 36.8% and allows 36.7%; KC hits 28.4% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 38.6% and 36.8% of their shots

DENBig

DEN offense vs KC defense

Offense 184th of 366 against a defense 335th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 53.6 and allows 56.0; KC 45.8 and allows 56.3

DENSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 29.8%, KC 26.4%. Defensive: DEN 67.2%, KC 64.1%

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: DEN plays 69.4 a game (151st fastest), KC 71.8 (45th). Faster games mean more points

KCSmall

Home court

KC at home. This season: KC 0-0 at home, DEN 0-0 away

DENSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 27%, KC 0%. Transfers in: DEN 6, KC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

DENSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 14.2%, KC 18.2%. Forced: DEN 13.0%, KC 16.4%

Even

KC offense vs DEN defense

Offense 321st of 366 against a defense 337th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 249th-hardest schedule, KC the 235th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 34.1, KC 29.2. Allowed: DEN 36.8, KC 31.4

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	DEN -4.5	—
Total	—	153.2	—
Projected score	—	DEN 78.8 · KC 74.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DEN -2.8	—
1H total	71.6	—
1H projected score	DEN 37.2 · KC 34.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LWWLL	18-11	62%	12-5	—
KC LLLLL	5-23	18%	1-10	—

Venue/role: DEN away; KC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UUUOU	20-9	69%	12-17
KC OOUOU	16-12	57%	1-27

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
KC	0-10 0%	0-10 0%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Denver

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	vs SHSU	No recent meeting
Dec 11	@ UTSA	L79–84LO
Dec 14	@ UTU	L54–68LU

Kansas City

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	vs EIU	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ SEMO	L59–80LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

DEN 6–5 KCDEN leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings · DEN 5-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 28, 2025-26	DEN 69 @ KC 61	KC +3.5	DEN W
Dec 31, 2025-26	KC 74 @ DEN 87	DEN -9.5	DEN W
Feb 27, 2024-25	DEN 56 @ KC 64	KC -7.5	KC W
Jan 30, 2024-25	KC 68 @ DEN 69	DEN +3.5	DEN W
Mar 9, 2023-24	DEN 61 vs KC 60	KC -5.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Denver

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

18-11

62% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-9

69% overs · avg +6.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

L L W L W L L W L L W L W L L L W L L W L W W W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1162%

W W W L W W L W L L W W W W W L W L L W L W W W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-969%

O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O U O U O U O U O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SEA	L 73-84	+13.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 157
Nov 6	@WASH	L 70-84	+27.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 9	@MTST	W 75-73	+7.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 15	vsUTSA	L 79-84	-4.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 163
Nov 21	@CSU	W 83-81	+18.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 164
Nov 24	@ARIZ	L 73-103	+32.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 176
Nov 26	@WYO	L 59-101	+9.5	L −32.5	153.5	O 160
Dec 3	vsEWU	W 93-89	-1.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 182
Dec 6	@IDST	L 79-93	+8.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 172
Dec 13	vsCSUF	L 86-105	-3.5	L −22.5	165.5	O 191
Dec 20	@UNCO	W 86-79	+8.5	W +15.5	159.5	O 165
Dec 22	@TLSA	L 85-90	+16.5	W +11.5	160.5	O 175
Dec 31	vsKC	W 87-74	-9.5	W +3.5	156.5	O 161
Jan 4	@STMN	L 88-92	+11.5	W +7.5	163.5	O 180
Jan 8	@SDST	L 79-87	+8.5	W +0.5	162.5	O 166
Jan 10	@SDAK	L 72-82	-1.5	L −11.5	169.5	U 154
Jan 14	vsORU	W 98-87	-6.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 185
Jan 22	vsNDSU	L 77-82	+4.5	L −0.5	160.5	U 159
Jan 24	vsUND	L 86-93	-5.5	L −12.5	162.5	O 179
Jan 28	@KC	W 69-61	-3.5	W +4.5	161.5	U 130
Jan 31	vsOMA	L 82-84	-1.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 166
Feb 5	@NDSU	W 78-71	+12.5	W +19.5	156.5	U 149
Feb 7	@UND	W 98-79	+3.5	W +22.5	161.5	O 177
Feb 12	vsSDST	W 79-61	+2.5	W +20.5	160.5	U 140
Feb 15	@OMA	L 76-83	+2.5	L −4.5	160.5	U 159
Feb 19	vsSDAK	W 90-70	-5.5	W +14.5	163.5	U 160
Feb 21	vsSTMN	W 82-80	+3.5	W +5.5	168.5	U 162
Feb 26	@ORU	L 80-102	-2.5	L −24.5	156.5	O 182
Mar 6	vsUND	L 67-83	-2.5	L −18.5	160.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SEA

L 73-84

+2.5

WASH

L 70-84

+13.5

MTST

W 75-73

+9.5

UTSA

L 79-84

−9.5

CSU

W 83-81

+20.5

ARIZ

L 73-103

+2.5

WYO

L 59-101

−32.5

EWU

W 93-89

+2.5

IDST

L 79-93

−5.5

CSUF

L 86-105

−22.5

UNCO

W 86-79

+15.5

TLSA

L 85-90

+11.5

W 87-74

+3.5

STMN

L 88-92

+7.5

SDST

L 79-87

+0.5

SDAK

L 72-82

−11.5

ORU

W 98-87

+4.5

NDSU

L 77-82

−0.5

UND

L 86-93

−12.5

W 69-61

+4.5

OMA

L 82-84

−3.5

NDSU

W 78-71

+19.5

UND

W 98-79

+22.5

SDST

W 79-61

+20.5

OMA

L 76-83

−4.5

SDAK

W 90-70

+14.5

STMN

W 82-80

+5.5

ORU

L 80-102

−24.5

UND

L 67-83

−18.5

covered 18didn’t cover 11avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SEA

L 73-84

+20.5

WASH

L 70-84

+0.5

MTST

W 75-73

+1.5

UTSA

L 79-84

+14.5

CSU

W 83-81

+14.5

ARIZ

L 73-103

+21.5

WYO

L 59-101

+6.5

EWU

W 93-89

+26.5

IDST

L 79-93

+29.5

CSUF

L 86-105

+25.5

UNCO

W 86-79

+5.5

TLSA

L 85-90

+14.5

W 87-74

+4.5

STMN

L 88-92

+16.5

SDST

L 79-87

+3.5

SDAK

L 72-82

−15.5

ORU

W 98-87

+28.5

NDSU

L 77-82

−1.5

UND

L 86-93

+16.5

W 69-61

−31.5

OMA

L 82-84

+7.5

NDSU

W 78-71

−7.5

UND

W 98-79

+15.5

SDST

W 79-61

−20.5

OMA

L 76-83

−1.5

SDAK

W 90-70

−3.5

STMN

W 82-80

−6.5

ORU

L 80-102

+25.5

UND

L 67-83

−10.5

over 20under 9avg +6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas City

28 games played

Straight up

1-27

4% wins

Against the spread

5-23

18% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-12

57% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-274%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-2318%

L L W L L L L L W W W L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1257%

O O U U U U U O U O O O U O O O O U U O O U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SIU	L 78-101	+12.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 11	vsIONA	L 91-105	+4.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 15	@TEX	L 55-71	+31.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 19	@TCU	L 45-81	+23.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 24	@LIN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 29	@WEB	L 61-82	+10.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsIDST	L 59-68	+5.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 127
Dec 6	@EWU	L 66-90	+9.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsWEB	L 60-64	+7.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 16	@OU	L 67-89	+30.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 18	@OKST	L 79-91	+27.5	W +15.5	161.5	O 170
Dec 31	@DEN	L 74-87	+9.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 161
Jan 3	@OMA	W 73-66	+8.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsNDSU	L 73-97	+9.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsUND	L 79-81	-1.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 15	@SDAK	L 83-99	+7.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 182
Jan 17	@SDST	L 62-90	+13.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 152
Jan 24	vsOMA	L 60-77	+4.5	L −12.5	148.5	U 137
Jan 28	vsDEN	L 61-69	+3.5	L −4.5	161.5	U 130
Feb 1	@STMN	L 64-99	+17.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	vsSDAK	L 75-82	+2.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 12	@ORU	L 60-69	+6.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 129
Feb 14	vsSTMN	L 64-104	+12.5	L −27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 19	@UND	L 70-85	+9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 155
Feb 21	@NDSU	L 59-95	+19.5	L −16.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 26	vsSDST	L 59-73	+12.5	L −1.5	152.5	U 132
Feb 28	vsORU	L 70-94	+3.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 164
Mar 4	vsORU	L 62-84	+8.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

−10.5

IONA

L 91-105

−9.5

TEX

L 55-71

+15.5

TCU

L 45-81

−12.5

LIN

L 67-80

−8.5

WEB

L 61-82

−10.5

IDST

L 59-68

−3.5

EWU

L 66-90

−14.5

WEB

L 60-64

+3.5

L 67-89

+8.5

OKST

L 79-91

+15.5

DEN

L 74-87

−3.5

OMA

W 73-66

+15.5

NDSU

L 73-97

−14.5

UND

L 79-81

−3.5

SDAK

L 83-99

−8.5

SDST

L 62-90

−14.5

OMA

L 60-77

−12.5

DEN

L 61-69

−4.5

STMN

L 64-99

−17.5

SDAK

L 75-82

−4.5

ORU

L 60-69

−2.5

STMN

L 64-104

−27.5

UND

L 70-85

−5.5

NDSU

L 59-95

−16.5

SDST

L 59-73

−1.5

ORU

L 70-94

−20.5

ORU

L 62-84

−13.5

covered 5didn’t cover 23avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

+37.5

IONA

L 91-105

+39.5

TEX

L 55-71

−33.5

TCU

L 45-81

−24.5

LIN

L 67-80

−5.5

WEB

L 61-82

−12.5

IDST

L 59-68

−10.5

EWU

L 66-90

+4.5

WEB

L 60-64

−26.5

L 67-89

+2.5

OKST

L 79-91

+8.5

DEN

L 74-87

+4.5

OMA

W 73-66

−9.5

NDSU

L 73-97

+25.5

UND

L 79-81

+13.5

SDAK

L 83-99

+25.5

SDST

L 62-90

+0.5

OMA

L 60-77

−11.5

DEN

L 61-69

−31.5

STMN

L 64-99

+11.5

SDAK

L 75-82

+0.5

ORU

L 60-69

−21.5

STMN

L 64-104

+13.5

UND

L 70-85

+4.5

NDSU

L 59-95

+5.5

SDST

L 59-73

−20.5

ORU

L 70-94

+14.5

ORU

L 62-84

−3.5

over 16under 12avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kansas City has the better starters

Position by position: Denver 1, Kansas City 2, even 2

DenverBetterKansas City

G C. Johnson19.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73

DENSmall

G C. Daughtery TR10 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 45

G K. Martin TR5.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24

KCSmall

G J. Smith TR9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 3 ast Score 43

G C. Hyland TR5 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 20

Even

G M. Samar TR4.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 28

F J. Rogers TR5.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 27

No call

F S. Hartmann TR8.2 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

F S. Wysocki5.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 14

KCSmall

F A. Diop TR5.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 29

DenverBetterKansas City

DEN offense184th of 366 · -5.7

DENBig

KC defense335th of 366 · -8.8

DEN defense337th of 366 · -8.9

Even

KC offense321st of 366 · -10.5

Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players

DENSmall

Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players

KCSmall

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

Bench-2.4 · 3 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestDEN betterKC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Denver

Guards

C. Johnson36 minK. Martin16 min · TRC. Hyland15 min · TRT. Cady11 min · TRL. ThreattNewJ. NelsonNew

Forwards

J. Rogers27 min · TRS. Wysocki19 minS. Mahoney5 min · TRH. BatesNewC. DimmockNewO. Wickstrom StumerNew

Centers

B. Mbengue9 min · TR

Kansas City

Guards

C. Daughtery27 min · TRJ. Smith25 min · TRM. Samar16 min · TRE. MoskowitzNewD. JacksonNewC. LoveNew

Forwards

S. Hartmann24 min · TRA. Diop19 min · TRR. ButirinsNewJ. SickingNewA. BakhtadzeNewM. Bruce-McCrommonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN80.3 #61

KC67.0 #334

Points per possession

DEN1.16 #53

KC0.93 #361

Pace (possessions)

DEN69.4 #151

KC71.8 #45

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN53.6 #79

KC45.8 #352

3-point %

DEN36.8 #32

KC28.4 #360

3-point attempt rate

DEN38.6 #199

KC36.8 #235

Free throw rate

DEN34.1 #203

KC29.2 #330

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN14.2 #30

KC18.2 #282

Offensive rebound rate

DEN29.8 #213

KC26.4 #314

Assists per game

DEN11.2 #327

KC11.3 #324

Defense

Points allowed

DEN84.0 #357

KC84.8 #359

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.21 #360

KC1.18 #348

Opponent effective FG%

DEN56.0 #344

KC56.3 #348

Opponent 3-point %

DEN36.7 #338

KC37.5 #350

Turnovers forced

DEN13.0 #355

KC16.4 #193

Defensive rebound rate

DEN67.2 #291

KC64.1 #353

Steals per game

DEN4.5 #356

KC6.4 #192

Blocks per game

DEN1.9 #348

KC3.1 #195

DEN		KC
Scoring
80.3 #61	Points per game	67.0 #334
1.16 #53	Points per possession	0.93 #361
69.4 #151	Pace (possessions)	71.8 #45
Shooting
53.6 #79	Effective FG%	45.8 #352
36.8 #32	3-point %	28.4 #360
38.6 #199	3-point attempt rate	36.8 #235
34.1 #203	Free throw rate	29.2 #330
Possessions
14.2 #30	Turnover rate	18.2 #282
29.8 #213	Offensive rebound rate	26.4 #314
11.2 #327	Assists per game	11.3 #324
Defense
84.0 #357	Points allowed	84.8 #359
1.21 #360	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #348
56.0 #344	Opponent effective FG%	56.3 #348
36.7 #338	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #350
13.0 #355	Turnovers forced	16.4 #193
67.2 #291	Defensive rebound rate	64.1 #353
4.5 #356	Steals per game	6.4 #192
1.9 #348	Blocks per game	3.1 #195

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Denver

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs North Dakota67–83
L@ Oral Roberts80–102
Wvs St Thomas82–80
Wvs South Dakota90–70
L@ Omaha76–83

A week or more of rest.

Kansas City

1-27 in 2025-26 overall · 1-16 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oral Roberts62–84
Lvs Oral Roberts70–94
Lvs S Dakota St59–73
L@ N Dakota St59–95
L@ North Dakota70–85

A week or more of rest.

Denver Pioneers at Kansas City Roos

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Denver

Kansas City

Kansas City has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Denver

Kansas City