1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 9
  3. SHSU vs DEN
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 9

Sam Houston Bearkats vs Denver Pioneers

Swinney Center · Neutral site
#189SHSUSam Houston
vs
#263DENDenver
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SHSUThis seasonDEN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SHSU 81–77 · win probability SHSU 62%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 157.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SHSU has more of the edges

SHSU 4, DEN 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SHSUBig
SHSU offense vs DEN defense
Offense 154th of 366 against a defense 337th, on the model’s ratings
SHSUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SHSU 35.9%, DEN 29.8%. Defensive: SHSU 69.9%, DEN 67.2%
SHSUBig
Three-pointers
SHSU hits 37.2% and allows 32.5%; DEN hits 36.8% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 35.8% and 38.6% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
SHSU has played the 138th-hardest schedule, DEN the 249th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SHSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SHSU 52.5 and allows 51.4; DEN 53.6 and allows 56.0
DENSmall
DEN offense vs SHSU defense
Offense 184th of 366 against a defense 228th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: SHSU plays 70.7 a game (88th fastest), DEN 69.4 (151st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SHSU 16.8%, DEN 14.2%. Forced: SHSU 16.1%, DEN 13.0%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SHSU 29%, DEN 27%. Transfers in: SHSU 2, DEN 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SHSU 34.4, DEN 34.1. Allowed: SHSU 36.7, DEN 36.8
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SHSU -3.6—
Total—157.4—
Projected score—SHSU 80.5 · DEN 76.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSHSU -2.3—
1H total73.5—
1H projected scoreSHSU 37.9 · DEN 35.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Sam Houston has the better starters

Position by position: Sam Houston 3, Denver 1, even 1
Sam HoustonBetterDenver
G J. Begg10 pts · 2.6 reb · 3.5 ast Score 17
DENBig
G C. Johnson19.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73
G J. Coleman8.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 41
SHSUSmall
G K. Martin TR5.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24
F E. St. Bernard TR5.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 78
SHSUBig
G C. Hyland TR5 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 20
F M. Dann2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 58
SHSUSmall
F J. Rogers TR5.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 27
F R. Greppi TR0 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F S. Wysocki5.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 14
Sam HoustonBetterDenver
SHSU offense154th of 366 · -4.7
SHSUBig
DEN defense337th of 366 · -8.9
SHSU defense228th of 366 · -6.1
Even
DEN offense184th of 366 · -5.7
Backcourt-3.6 · 2 players
DENSmall
Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt+1.0 · 3 players
SHSUBig
Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-2.4 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestSHSU betterDEN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Sam Houston
Guards
J. Begg27 minJ. Coleman22 minZ. PipkinNewA. McDowellNewN. NguyenNewK. PartainNew
Forwards
E. St. Bernard18 min · TRM. Dann9 minR. Greppi1 min · TRC. Sadibou NdiayeNewY. OkeNewA. LoustauNew
Denver
Guards
C. Johnson36 minK. Martin16 min · TRC. Hyland15 min · TRT. Cady11 min · TRL. ThreattNewJ. NelsonNew
Forwards
J. Rogers27 min · TRS. Wysocki19 minS. Mahoney5 min · TRH. BatesNewC. DimmockNewO. Wickstrom StumerNew
Centers
B. Mbengue9 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SHSUDEN
Scoring
80.0 #67Points per game80.3 #61
1.13 #78Points per possession1.16 #53
70.7 #88Pace (possessions)69.4 #151
Shooting
52.5 #128Effective FG%53.6 #79
37.2 #243-point %36.8 #32
35.8 #2533-point attempt rate38.6 #199
34.4 #199Free throw rate34.1 #203
Possessions
16.8 #186Turnover rate14.2 #30
35.9 #25Offensive rebound rate29.8 #213
14.9 #95Assists per game11.2 #327
Defense
76.9 #237Points allowed84.0 #357
1.09 #191Points allowed per possession1.21 #360
51.4 #180Opponent effective FG%56.0 #344
32.5 #89Opponent 3-point %36.7 #338
16.1 #220Turnovers forced13.0 #355
69.9 #168Defensive rebound rate67.2 #291
7.0 #128Steals per game4.5 #356
2.6 #288Blocks per game1.9 #348
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Sam Houston

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ New Mexico83–107
  • Lvs Kennesaw St73–79
  • Wvs New Mexico St69–61
  • L@ Liberty72–79
  • L@ Delaware80–83

A week or more of rest.

Denver

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs North Dakota67–83
  • L@ Oral Roberts80–102
  • Wvs St Thomas82–80
  • Wvs South Dakota90–70
  • L@ Omaha76–83

A week or more of rest.