West Virginia Mountaineers vs Pittsburgh Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 9, 6:00 PM ETPPG Paints Arena · Neutral site

#74PITTPitt

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: West Virginia and Pitt
WVU	This season	PITT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WVU 73–69 · win probability WVU 66%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WVU has more of the edges

WVU 4, PITT 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WVUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WVU 51.6 and allows 48.5; PITT 51.0 and allows 53.4

WVUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WVU 35.1, PITT 30.4. Allowed: WVU 29.3, PITT 30.9

WVUSmall

PITT offense vs WVU defense

Offense 87th of 366 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

WVUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WVU 16.8%, PITT 17.2%. Forced: WVU 17.8%, PITT 16.3%

PITTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WVU 30.5%, PITT 33.9%. Defensive: WVU 71.4%, PITT 71.9%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WVU 23%, PITT 3%. Transfers in: WVU 6, PITT 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

WVU hits 33.0% and allows 34.3%; PITT hits 33.4% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 43.0% and 42.6% of their shots

Even

WVU offense vs PITT defense

Offense 77th of 366 against a defense 59th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: WVU plays 65.3 a game (336th fastest), PITT 65.0 (345th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

WVU has played the 62nd-hardest schedule, PITT the 65th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WVU -4.8	—
Total	—	142.2	—
Projected score	—	WVU 73.4 · PITT 68.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WVU -3.0	—
1H total	66.5	—
1H projected score	WVU 34.7 · PITT 31.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WVU WLWWW	18-17	51%	5-3	—
PITT WWWWL	16-17	48%	2-2	—

Venue/role: WVU neutral site; PITT neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU UUOOO	13-22	37%	21-14
PITT UOUUO	19-14	58%	13-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
PITT	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

West Virginia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs COPP	W91–49WO

Pitt

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	vs DREX	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WVU 3–2 PITTWVU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · WVU 2-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 13, 2025-26	PITT 49 @ WVU 71	WVU -5.5	WVU W
Nov 15, 2024-25	WVU 62 @ PITT 86	PITT -7.5	PITT W
Dec 6, 2023-24	PITT 80 @ WVU 63	WVU +3.5	PITT W
Nov 11, 2022-23	WVU 81 @ PITT 56	PITT +2.5	WVU W
Nov 12, 2021-22	PITT 59 @ WVU 74	WVU -17	PITT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

West Virginia

35 games played

Straight up

21-14

60% wins

Against the spread

18-17

51% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-22

37% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1460%

W W W W W L L W W L W L W L W W L W W L W L W L W L L L W L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1751%

L L W W L W L W W L W W L L W W L W W L L L W L W L L L W L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2237%

U U U U O O O U O U O O U U U O U U U U U U U U O U U O O U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsMSM	W 70-54	-19.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 6	vsCAM	W 73-65	-15.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsLEH	W 69-47	-17.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 116
Nov 13	vsPITT	W 71-49	-5.5	W +16.5	134.5	U 120
Nov 17	vsLAF	W 81-59	-24.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	vsCLEM	L 67-70	+4.5	W +1.5	132.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsXAV	L 68-78	-5.5	L −15.5	140.5	O 146
Nov 30	vsMERC	W 70-38	-21.5	W +10.5	127.5	U 108
Dec 3	vsCOPP	W 91-49	-31.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 140
Dec 6	vsWAKE	L 66-75	-2.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 141
Dec 9	vsLR	W 90-58	-27.5	W +4.5	132.5	O 148
Dec 13	vsOSU	L 88-89	+3.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 177
Dec 22	vsMVSU	W 86-51	-42.5	L −7.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 2	@ISU	L 59-80	+16.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 139
Jan 6	vsCIN	W 62-60	+1.5	W +3.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 10	vsKU	W 86-75	+2.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 13	@HOU	L 48-77	+13.5	L −15.5	127.5	U 125
Jan 17	vsCOLO	W 72-61	-6.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 133
Jan 21	@ASU	W 75-63	+1.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 138
Jan 24	@ARIZ	L 53-88	+17.5	L −17.5	143.5	U 141
Jan 27	vsKSU	W 59-54	-7.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 113
Jan 31	vsBAY	L 53-63	-2.5	L −12.5	139.5	U 116
Feb 5	@CIN	W 59-54	+5.5	W +10.5	127.5	U 113
Feb 8	vsTTU	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 133
Feb 14	@UCF	W 74-67	+3.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 18	vsUTAH	L 56-61	-10.5	L −15.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 21	@TCU	L 54-60	+4.5	L −1.5	133.5	U 114
Feb 24	@OKST	L 84-91	+1.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 175
Feb 28	vsBYU	W 79-71	+2.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 150
Mar 3	@KSU	L 63-65	-3.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 6	vsUCF	W 77-62	-4.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 139
Mar 11	vsBYU	L 48-68	+3.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 116
Apr 2	vsSTAN	W 82-77	-2.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 159
Apr 4	vsCREI	W 87-70	-1.5	W +15.5	137.5	O 157
Apr 5	vsOU	W 89-82	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−3.5

CAM

W 73-65

−7.5

LEH

W 69-47

+4.5

PITT

W 71-49

+16.5

LAF

W 81-59

−2.5

CLEM

L 67-70

+1.5

XAV

L 68-78

−15.5

MERC

W 70-38

+10.5

COPP

W 91-49

+10.5

WAKE

L 66-75

−11.5

W 90-58

+4.5

OSU

L 88-89

+2.5

MVSU

W 86-51

−7.5

ISU

L 59-80

−4.5

CIN

W 62-60

+3.5

W 86-75

+13.5

HOU

L 48-77

−15.5

COLO

W 72-61

+4.5

ASU

W 75-63

+13.5

ARIZ

L 53-88

−17.5

KSU

W 59-54

−2.5

BAY

L 53-63

−12.5

CIN

W 59-54

+10.5

TTU

L 63-70

−2.5

UCF

W 74-67

+10.5

UTAH

L 56-61

−15.5

TCU

L 54-60

−1.5

OKST

L 84-91

−5.5

BYU

W 79-71

+10.5

KSU

L 63-65

−5.5

UCF

W 77-62

+10.5

BYU

L 48-68

−16.5

STAN

W 82-77

+2.5

CREI

W 87-70

+15.5

W 89-82

+10.5

covered 18didn’t cover 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−12.5

CAM

W 73-65

−0.5

LEH

W 69-47

−23.5

PITT

W 71-49

−14.5

LAF

W 81-59

+4.5

CLEM

L 67-70

+4.5

XAV

L 68-78

+5.5

MERC

W 70-38

−19.5

COPP

W 91-49

+5.5

WAKE

L 66-75

−2.5

W 90-58

+15.5

OSU

L 88-89

+31.5

MVSU

W 86-51

−0.5

ISU

L 59-80

−3.5

CIN

W 62-60

−10.5

W 86-75

+21.5

HOU

L 48-77

−2.5

COLO

W 72-61

−8.5

ASU

W 75-63

−7.5

ARIZ

L 53-88

−2.5

KSU

W 59-54

−33.5

BAY

L 53-63

−23.5

CIN

W 59-54

−14.5

TTU

L 63-70

−6.5

UCF

W 74-67

+0.5

UTAH

L 56-61

−16.5

TCU

L 54-60

−19.5

OKST

L 84-91

+30.5

BYU

W 79-71

+8.5

KSU

L 63-65

−15.5

UCF

W 77-62

−3.5

BYU

L 48-68

−25.5

STAN

W 82-77

+23.5

CREI

W 87-70

+19.5

W 89-82

+29.5

over 13under 22avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pitt

33 games played

Straight up

13-20

39% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-2039%

W W W L W L L W L L L W W L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

W W L L W L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L W L L L W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

U U O U U U O U O O O O U O O O O O U O O U U O U O O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsYSU	W 74-59	-14.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsLONG	W 78-60	-14.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsEMU	W 78-66	-15.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 13	@WVU	L 49-71	+5.5	L −16.5	134.5	U 120
Nov 17	vsBUCK	W 84-50	-16.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	vsUCF	L 67-77	-1.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 23	vsQUIN	L 75-83	-12.5	L −20.5	140.5	O 158
Nov 28	vsOSU	W 67-66	+5.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 133
Dec 2	vsTA&M	L 73-81	+3.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 7	vsHOF	L 73-80	-8.5	L −15.5	134.5	O 153
Dec 13	@VILL	L 61-79	+10.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 17	vsBING	W 103-63	-24.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 166
Dec 21	vsPSU	W 80-46	+1.5	W +35.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 30	@MIA	L 69-76	+9.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 145
Jan 3	vsCLEM	L 68-73	+3.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 10	vsSYR	L 72-83	-1.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 14	@GT	W 89-66	-1.5	W +21.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 17	vsLOU	L 59-100	+7.5	L −33.5	152.5	O 159
Jan 21	@BC	L 62-65	-2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsNCSU	L 72-81	+6.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsWAKE	W 80-76	-1.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 156
Jan 31	@CLEM	L 52-63	+10.5	L −0.5	135.5	U 115
Feb 3	@UVA	L 47-67	+12.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 114
Feb 7	vsSMU	L 67-86	+4.5	L −14.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 10	vsDUKE	L 54-70	+17.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 124
Feb 14	@UNC	L 65-79	+11.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 21	vsND	W 73-68	-3.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 25	@STAN	L 67-75	+8.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	@CAL	W 72-56	+6.5	W +22.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 4	vsFSU	L 74-75	+1.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 149
Mar 7	@SYR	W 71-69	+5.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsSTAN	W 64-63	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsNCSU	L 88-98	+8.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 186

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

+0.5

LONG

W 78-60

+3.5

EMU

W 78-66

−3.5

WVU

L 49-71

−16.5

BUCK

W 84-50

+17.5

UCF

L 67-77

−11.5

QUIN

L 75-83

−20.5

OSU

W 67-66

+6.5

TA&M

L 73-81

−4.5

HOF

L 73-80

−15.5

VILL

L 61-79

−7.5

BING

W 103-63

+15.5

PSU

W 80-46

+35.5

MIA

L 69-76

+2.5

CLEM

L 68-73

−1.5

SYR

L 72-83

−12.5

W 89-66

+21.5

LOU

L 59-100

−33.5

L 62-65

−5.5

NCSU

L 72-81

−2.5

WAKE

W 80-76

+2.5

CLEM

L 52-63

−0.5

UVA

L 47-67

−7.5

SMU

L 67-86

−14.5

DUKE

L 54-70

+1.5

UNC

L 65-79

−2.5

W 73-68

+1.5

STAN

L 67-75

+0.5

CAL

W 72-56

+22.5

FSU

L 74-75

+0.5

SYR

W 71-69

+7.5

STAN

W 64-63

+5.5

NCSU

L 88-98

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

−12.5

LONG

W 78-60

−7.5

EMU

W 78-66

+2.5

WVU

L 49-71

−14.5

BUCK

W 84-50

−7.5

UCF

L 67-77

−5.5

QUIN

L 75-83

+17.5

OSU

W 67-66

−15.5

TA&M

L 73-81

+1.5

HOF

L 73-80

+18.5

VILL

L 61-79

+1.5

BING

W 103-63

+31.5

PSU

W 80-46

−20.5

MIA

L 69-76

+0.5

CLEM

L 68-73

+5.5

SYR

L 72-83

+12.5

W 89-66

+9.5

LOU

L 59-100

+6.5

L 62-65

−10.5

NCSU

L 72-81

+8.5

WAKE

W 80-76

+5.5

CLEM

L 52-63

−20.5

UVA

L 47-67

−28.5

SMU

L 67-86

+5.5

DUKE

L 54-70

−12.5

UNC

L 65-79

+1.5

W 73-68

+0.5

STAN

L 67-75

+3.5

CAL

W 72-56

−15.5

FSU

L 74-75

+4.5

SYR

W 71-69

−1.5

STAN

W 64-63

−9.5

NCSU

L 88-98

+41.5

over 19under 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: West Virginia 1, Pitt 1, even 3

West VirginiaBetterPitt

G F. Bizjack TR17.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 88

Even

G N. George TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 5.4 ast Score 75

G S. Traore TR9 pts · 3.4 reb · 2 ast Score 46

PITTBig

G A. Sumler TR19.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.9 ast Score 93

G M. Somerville TR8 pts · 3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 54

Even

F T. Rudovskii TR13.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 59

F B. Lorient11.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 91

Even

F B. Ndongo TR11.8 pts · 8.1 reb · 2.4 ast Score 90

F J. Buchanan TR12.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89

WVUSmall

C A. Mighty TR13.3 pts · 10.9 reb · 1 ast Score 71

West VirginiaBetterPitt

WVU offense77th of 366 · +0.9

Even

PITT defense59th of 366 · +1.3

WVU defense19th of 366 · +5.5

WVUSmall

PITT offense87th of 366 · +0.2

Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players

PITTSmall

Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+6.2 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+5.4 · 3 players

Bench+1.6 · 3 players

WVUBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWVU betterPITT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

West Virginia

Guards

F. Bizjack34 min · TRS. Traore29 min · TRM. Somerville26 min · TRJ. Sanon21 min · TRA. Jenkins16 minM. FeenaneNew

Forwards

B. Lorient29 minJ. Buchanan28 min · TRM. OlejaszNew

Centers

M. Sylla21 min · TRA. DioumNewA. SeiniNew

Pitt

Guards

N. George32 min · TRA. Sumler31 min · TRC. Hawkins27 min · TRJ. Powell16 min · TRJ. Bethea8 min · TRM. Moore6 min

Forwards

T. Rudovskii32 min · TRB. Ndongo27 min · TRA. Souare8 min · TRD. Diomande8 min · TRB. MayhewNewJ. NelsonNew

Centers

A. Mighty32 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WVU70.6 #271

PITT70.5 #274

Points per possession

WVU1.08 #183

PITT1.08 #181

Pace (possessions)

WVU65.3 #336

PITT65.0 #345

Shooting

Effective FG%

WVU51.6 #166

PITT51.0 #193

3-point %

WVU33.0 #227

PITT33.4 #206

3-point attempt rate

WVU43.0 #118

PITT42.6 #124

Free throw rate

WVU35.1 #173

PITT30.4 #300

Possessions

Turnover rate

WVU16.8 #188

PITT17.2 #223

Offensive rebound rate

WVU30.5 #178

PITT33.9 #72

Assists per game

WVU12.8 #228

PITT13.2 #197

Defense

Points allowed

WVU65.7 #11

PITT71.8 #101

Points allowed per possession

WVU1.01 #34

PITT1.11 #237

Opponent effective FG%

WVU48.5 #50

PITT53.4 #279

Opponent 3-point %

WVU34.3 #201

PITT35.2 #263

Turnovers forced

WVU17.8 #108

PITT16.3 #202

Defensive rebound rate

WVU71.4 #86

PITT71.9 #68

Steals per game

WVU6.3 #195

PITT6.5 #172

Blocks per game

WVU3.1 #204

PITT3.1 #203

WVU		PITT
Scoring
70.6 #271	Points per game	70.5 #274
1.08 #183	Points per possession	1.08 #181
65.3 #336	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #345
Shooting
51.6 #166	Effective FG%	51.0 #193
33.0 #227	3-point %	33.4 #206
43.0 #118	3-point attempt rate	42.6 #124
35.1 #173	Free throw rate	30.4 #300
Possessions
16.8 #188	Turnover rate	17.2 #223
30.5 #178	Offensive rebound rate	33.9 #72
12.8 #228	Assists per game	13.2 #197
Defense
65.7 #11	Points allowed	71.8 #101
1.01 #34	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #237
48.5 #50	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #279
34.3 #201	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #263
17.8 #108	Turnovers forced	16.3 #202
71.4 #86	Defensive rebound rate	71.9 #68
6.3 #195	Steals per game	6.5 #172
3.1 #204	Blocks per game	3.1 #203

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

West Virginia

21-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs Oklahoma89–82
Wvs Creighton87–70
Wvs Stanford82–77
Lvs BYU48–68
Wvs UCF77–62

A week or more of rest.

Pitt

13-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs NC State88–98
Wvs Stanford64–63
W@ Syracuse71–69
Lvs Florida St74–75
W@ California72–56

A week or more of rest.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Pittsburgh Panthers

What could decide it: WVU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

West Virginia

Pitt

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

West Virginia

Pitt