Mercyhurst Lakers at West Virginia Mountaineers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 30, 3:00 PM ETHope Coliseum · at West Virginia

#331MERCMercyhurst38final

Final

Closing lineWVU -21.5✓ WVU covered by 10.5

Closing total127.5Under by 19.5

Season records: Mercyhurst and West Virginia
MERC	This season	WVU
2-4	Record	5-2
5-1	ATS	3-4
2-4	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MERC 53–76 WVU · ✓ WVU (98%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MERC	22	16	38
WVU	39	31	70

1st half: MERC 22, WVU 39 (WVU by 17). The model had WVU by 13.5 and a total of 60.3 (actual 61).

Team stats

MERC		WVU
16-48 33%	Field goals	26-55 47%
5-13 38%	3-pointers	5-18 28%
1-8 13%	Free throws	13-20 65%
27 6 off	Rebounds	44 14 off
6	Assists	15
3	Steals	8
2	Blocks	3
15	Turnovers	10
15	Fouls	17
16	Points in paint	36
2	Fast-break points	6

Players

MERC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Qadir Martin F	31	4	6	0	2-7	0-0
Cameron Johnson F	30	5	5	1	2-6	0-2
Bernie Blunt III G	28	14	1	2	6-12	2-4
Jake Lemelman G	24	6	1	0	2-9	2-4
Christian Gamble G	22	2	1	0	1-4	0-1
Bench
James Thomas F	17	0	2	0	0-3	0-0
DeShaun Jackson Jr. PG	17	4	3	1	2-4	0-0
Kaden Fuhrmann G	10	3	1	0	1-2	1-2
Or Faran G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Sean Lang G	6	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Brady Conner G	5	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Vladimir Pavlovic G	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Mykolas Ivanauskas, Chris Leman, Emilis Butkus

WVU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Treysen Eaglestaff G	27	9	8	0	4-9	1-4
Honor Huff G	26	6	1	2	2-6	2-5
Jasper Floyd G	24	5	1	4	1-5	0-1
Harlan Obioha C	20	4	5	0	2-4	0-0
Brenen Lorient F	18	9	5	2	4-5	0-0
Bench
Amir Jenkins G	23	10	3	3	4-7	1-2
Chance Moore G	16	11	9	1	4-8	0-1
DJ Thomas F	13	4	3	1	1-2	0-0
Morris Ugusuk G	13	0	3	0	0-1	0-1
Jackson Fields F	12	9	3	2	3-5	0-1
Jayden Forsythe G	6	3	0	0	1-3	1-3
Niyol Hauet G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Abraham Oyeadier, Evans Barning Jr., MJ Feenane

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WVU -21.5	WVU -22.6	WVU +1.1	W WVU covered
Total	127.5	128.5	Over 1.0	L Under
Projected score	—	MERC 52.9 · WVU 75.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WVU -13.5	WVU -17.0
1H total	60.3	61
1H projected score	MERC 23.4 · WVU 36.9	MERC 22 · WVU 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MERC WLWWW	5-1	83%	4-1	4-0
WVU WWLWL	3-4	43%	2-3	2-4

Venue/role: MERC away, as underdog; WVU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MERC UUOOU	2-4	33%	2-4
WVU UUOOO	3-4	43%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MERClast 6	2-4 33%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%
WVUlast 7	5-2 71%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MERC 0–1 WVUWVU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MERC 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 22, 2024-25	MERC 46 @ WVU 67	WVU -31.5	MERC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mercyhurst

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +8.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NU	L 47-70	+26.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 6	@LUC	W 73-65	+21.5	W +29.5	144.5	U 138
Nov 12	@CAN	L 55-58	-1.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 113
Nov 15	vsMORG	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 20	@M-OH	L 71-76	+15.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 147
Nov 23	@MRSH	L 60-69	+11.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-70

+3.5

LUC

W 73-65

+29.5

CAN

L 55-58

−4.5

MORG

W 86-72

+7.5

M-OH

L 71-76

+10.5

MRSH

L 60-69

+2.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-70

−23.5

LUC

W 73-65

−6.5

CAN

L 55-58

−22.5

MORG

W 86-72

+11.5

M-OH

L 71-76

+7.5

MRSH

L 60-69

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −8.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

West Virginia

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −5.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

U U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsMSM	W 70-54	-19.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 6	vsCAM	W 73-65	-15.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsLEH	W 69-47	-17.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 116
Nov 13	vsPITT	W 71-49	-5.5	W +16.5	134.5	U 120
Nov 17	vsLAF	W 81-59	-24.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	vsCLEM	L 67-70	+4.5	W +1.5	132.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsXAV	L 68-78	-5.5	L −15.5	140.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−3.5

CAM

W 73-65

−7.5

LEH

W 69-47

+4.5

PITT

W 71-49

+16.5

LAF

W 81-59

−2.5

CLEM

L 67-70

+1.5

XAV

L 68-78

−15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−12.5

CAM

W 73-65

−0.5

LEH

W 69-47

−23.5

PITT

W 71-49

−14.5

LAF

W 81-59

+4.5

CLEM

L 67-70

+4.5

XAV

L 68-78

+5.5

over 3under 4avg −5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mercyhurst Lakers at West Virginia Mountaineers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Mercyhurst

West Virginia

Mercyhurst

West Virginia