Jersey Mike’s Arena · at Rutgers · Conference game
#8MICHMichigan AP #16
@
#62RUTGRutgers
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
Season records: Michigan and Rutgers
MICHThis seasonRUTG
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MICH 84–71 · win probability MICH 88%
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 155.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
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No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MICH has more of the edges

MICH 6, RUTG 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MICHBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MICH 58.3 and allows 44.6; RUTG 47.2 and allows 53.0
MICHBig
Three-pointers
MICH hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%; RUTG hits 32.4% and allows 35.6%. Threes are 41.5% and 34.2% of their shots
MICHBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MICH 34.7%, RUTG 29.7%. Defensive: MICH 71.8%, RUTG 67.2%
RUTGBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MICH 16.3%, RUTG 14.9%. Forced: MICH 15.2%, RUTG 17.1%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MICH plays 71.7 a game (48th fastest), RUTG 67.5 (254th). Faster games mean more points
MICHSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MICH 38.0, RUTG 36.3. Allowed: MICH 26.0, RUTG 31.7
MICHSmall
MICH offense vs RUTG defense
Offense 5th of 366 against a defense 65th, on the model’s ratings
RUTGSmall
Home court
RUTG at home. This season: RUTG 0-0 at home, MICH 0-0 away
MICHSmall
RUTG offense vs MICH defense
Offense 58th of 366 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MICH has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, RUTG the 50th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MICH 38%, RUTG 58%. Transfers in: MICH 4, RUTG 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MICH -13.3—
Total—155.5—
Projected score—MICH 84.4 · RUTG 71.1

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadMICH -8.1—
1H total72.7—
1H projected scoreMICH 40.4 · RUTG 32.3—

Michigan has the better starters

Position by position: Michigan 2, Rutgers 0, even 3
MichiganBetterRutgers
G K. Noland TR17.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 87
MICHSmall
G R. Jones TR15 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 69
G E. Cadeau10.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.9 ast Score 87
Even
G D. Smith TR20.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 88
G T. McKenney9.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 88
Even
G T. Francis17 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 99
G R. Gayle7.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 76
Even
G J. Davis7.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.5 ast Score 72
C M. Thiam TR12.8 pts · 7.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 92
MICHSmall
G D. Buchanan8.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 68
MichiganBetterRutgers
MICH offense5th of 366 · +10.9
MICHSmall
RUTG defense65th of 366 · +1.0
MICH defense10th of 366 · +7.4
Even
RUTG offense58th of 366 · +2.7
Backcourt+7.0 · 4 players
RUTGSmall
Backcourt+9.4 · 5 players
Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench+5.5 · 4 players
MICHBig
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMICH betterRUTG betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Michigan
Guards
K. Noland34 min · TRE. Cadeau27 minT. McKenney22 minR. Gayle21 minH. Eisley1 minR. LiburdNew
Forwards
J. Estrella18 min · TRJ. Reed18 min · TRO. Goodman5 minH. HochbergNewL. CosbyNewQ. CostelloNew
Centers
M. Thiam27 min · TRM. MollerNew
Rutgers
Guards
R. Jones37 min · TRD. Smith34 min · TRT. Francis28 minJ. Davis26 minD. Buchanan24 minL. Mark16 min
Forwards
W. SydnorNewM. MiteoNewM. TonejcNew
Centers
C. Gurdak17 min · TRD. Buca13 min · TRG. Ware6 min
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MICHRUTG
Scoring
87.3 #4Points per game70.5 #273
1.21 #8Points per possession1.04 #261
71.7 #48Pace (possessions)67.5 #254
Shooting
58.3 #8Effective FG%47.2 #331
36.8 #333-point %32.4 #261
41.5 #1413-point attempt rate34.2 #291
38.0 #102Free throw rate36.3 #143
Possessions
16.3 #157Turnover rate14.9 #61
34.7 #55Offensive rebound rate29.7 #217
18.6 #5Assists per game12.2 #274
Defense
69.5 #55Points allowed75.3 #199
0.97 #8Points allowed per possession1.12 #267
44.6 #1Opponent effective FG%53.0 #268
30.4 #18Opponent 3-point %35.6 #287
15.2 #270Turnovers forced17.1 #141
71.8 #70Defensive rebound rate67.2 #292
5.6 #286Steals per game6.1 #226
6.0 #2Blocks per game3.4 #166

Michigan

37-3 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs UConn69–63
  • Wvs Arizona91–73
  • Wvs Tennessee95–62
  • Wvs Alabama90–77
  • Wvs Saint Louis95–72

A week or more of rest.

Rutgers

14-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Creighton69–82
  • Lvs UCLA59–72
  • Wvs Minnesota72–67
  • Wvs Penn State74–62
  • L@ Michigan St87–91

A week or more of rest.