Crisler Center · at Michigan · Conference game
#59NUNorthwestern
@
#8MICHMichigan AP #16
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
Season records: Northwestern and Michigan
NUThis seasonMICH
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MICH 86–67 · win probability MICH 94%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 152.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
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No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MICH has more of the edges

NU 1, MICH 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MICHBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NU 28.1%, MICH 34.7%. Defensive: NU 65.3%, MICH 71.8%
MICHBig
Three-pointers
NU hits 33.0% and allows 33.4%; MICH hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%. Threes are 34.0% and 41.5% of their shots
MICHBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NU 51.7 and allows 51.0; MICH 58.3 and allows 44.6
NUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NU 13.1%, MICH 16.3%. Forced: NU 17.5%, MICH 15.2%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: NU plays 65.5 a game (328th fastest), MICH 71.7 (48th). Faster games mean more points
MICHBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: NU 33.9, MICH 38.0. Allowed: NU 34.8, MICH 26.0
MICHSmall
NU offense vs MICH defense
Offense 67th of 366 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings
MICHSmall
Home court
MICH at home. This season: MICH 0-0 at home, NU 0-0 away
Even
MICH offense vs NU defense
Offense 5th of 366 against a defense 42nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NU has played the 36th-hardest schedule, MICH the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NU 24%, MICH 38%. Transfers in: NU 8, MICH 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MICH -18.1—
Total—152.9—
Projected score—NU 67.4 · MICH 85.5

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadMICH -10.6—
1H total71.5—
1H projected scoreNU 30.4 · MICH 41—

Michigan has the better starters

Position by position: Northwestern 0, Michigan 2, even 3
NorthwesternBetterMichigan
G L. Pratt TR17 pts · 1.7 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. Noland TR17.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 87
F J. Karasinski TR21.7 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 97
Even
G E. Cadeau10.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.9 ast Score 87
F C. Smith TR11.9 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48
MICHBig
G T. McKenney9.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 88
F L. McEldon TR11.7 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82
Even
G R. Gayle7.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 76
F O. Federiko TR8.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61
MICHSmall
C M. Thiam TR12.8 pts · 7.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 92
NorthwesternBetterMichigan
NU offense67th of 366 · +1.8
MICHSmall
MICH defense10th of 366 · +7.4
NU defense42nd of 366 · +2.7
Even
MICH offense5th of 366 · +10.9
Backcourt+0.9 · 1 player
MICHBig
Backcourt+7.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt+7.1 · 4 players
NUSmall
Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player
Bench-2.1 · 5 players
MICHBig
Bench+5.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestNU betterMICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Northwestern
Guards
L. Pratt33 min · TRA. Ciaravino22 minJ. West22 minA. Kostic12 min · TRD. Williams9 min · TRP. Gill4 min
Forwards
J. Karasinski30 min · TRC. Smith30 min · TRL. McEldon26 min · TRO. Federiko23 min · TRR. Soulis20 min · TRE. EschmeyerNew
Centers
S. GhaiNew
Michigan
Guards
K. Noland34 min · TRE. Cadeau27 minT. McKenney22 minR. Gayle21 minH. Eisley1 minR. LiburdNew
Forwards
J. Estrella18 min · TRJ. Reed18 min · TRO. Goodman5 minH. HochbergNewL. CosbyNewQ. CostelloNew
Centers
M. Thiam27 min · TRM. MollerNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NUMICH
Scoring
73.2 #220Points per game87.3 #4
1.12 #100Points per possession1.21 #8
65.5 #328Pace (possessions)71.7 #48
Shooting
51.7 #159Effective FG%58.3 #8
33.0 #2323-point %36.8 #33
34.0 #2963-point attempt rate41.5 #141
33.9 #213Free throw rate38.0 #102
Possessions
13.1 #6Turnover rate16.3 #157
28.1 #260Offensive rebound rate34.7 #55
17.2 #18Assists per game18.6 #5
Defense
72.0 #106Points allowed69.5 #55
1.09 #210Points allowed per possession0.97 #8
51.0 #157Opponent effective FG%44.6 #1
33.4 #145Opponent 3-point %30.4 #18
17.5 #120Turnovers forced15.2 #270
65.3 #332Defensive rebound rate71.8 #70
5.8 #256Steals per game5.6 #286
3.6 #131Blocks per game6.0 #2

Northwestern

15-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue68–81
  • Wvs Indiana74–61
  • Wvs Penn State76–66
  • L@ Minnesota66–67
  • Lvs Purdue66–70

A week or more of rest.

Michigan

37-3 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs UConn69–63
  • Wvs Arizona91–73
  • Wvs Tennessee95–62
  • Wvs Alabama90–77
  • Wvs Saint Louis95–72

A week or more of rest.