Youngstown State Penguins at South Carolina Gamecocks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 4:00 PM ETColonial Life Arena · at South Carolina

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Youngstown St and South Carolina
YSU	This season	SC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SC 82–64 · win probability SC 95%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SC has more of the edges

YSU 2, SC 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

YSU has played the 304th-hardest schedule, SC the 54th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SCBig

YSU offense vs SC defense

Offense 267th of 366 against a defense 53rd, on the model’s ratings

SCBig

SC offense vs YSU defense

Offense 98th of 366 against a defense 264th, on the model’s ratings

SCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: YSU 31.4, SC 36.7. Allowed: YSU 36.0, SC 34.0

YSUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: YSU 30.4%, SC 27.2%. Defensive: YSU 69.3%, SC 67.9%

YSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: YSU 53.6 and allows 52.3; SC 50.3 and allows 51.6

SCSmall

Home court

SC at home. This season: SC 0-0 at home, YSU 0-0 away

SCSmall

Three-pointers

YSU hits 33.8% and allows 35.5%; SC hits 31.1% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 49.4% and 44.4% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: YSU 18.8%, SC 14.4%. Forced: YSU 17.8%, SC 14.6%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: YSU 8%, SC 13%. Transfers in: YSU 6, SC 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: YSU plays 68.9 a game (188th fastest), SC 68.8 (195th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SC -18.5	—
Total	—	146.1	—
Projected score	—	YSU 63.8 · SC 82.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SC -10.9	—
1H total	68.3	—
1H projected score	YSU 28.7 · SC 39.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
YSU WWLLL	10-19	34%	5-10	—
SC LLLWL	14-18	44%	6-13	—

Venue/role: YSU away; SC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
YSU OUUOU	15-14	52%	12-17
SC UUUUO	16-16	50%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
YSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
SC	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Youngstown St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	@ MISS	No recent meeting

South Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	vs CLEM	L61–68WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Youngstown St

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

10-19

34% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-14

52% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

L W L L L W W W W L W L L L L L L W L W W L W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-1934%

L W W L L W W L W L W L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1452%

U O O O U U O U U O U U O O U O O O U O O U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PITT	L 59-74	+14.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	@GCU	W 90-81	+15.5	W +24.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@SBU	L 80-84	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 19	@TOL	L 75-92	+1.5	L −15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 23	vsUNCG	L 62-68	-5.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 130
Nov 24	vsGASO	W 67-61	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 128
Nov 28	vsCHST	W 87-64	-14.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 3	vsWRST	W 69-68	-3.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 6	@IUIN	W 78-55	-6.5	W +16.5	171.5	U 133
Dec 17	@RMU	L 77-80	+2.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 20	vsUPST	W 74-65	-6.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsDETM	L 68-73	-9.5	L −14.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 1	vsOAK	L 83-85	-1.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 4	@NKU	L 79-94	+4.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 173
Jan 7	vsPFW	L 69-71	-4.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 140
Jan 15	@WRST	L 83-93	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 17	@CLE	L 78-80	-8.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 22	vsGB	W 88-81	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsMILW	L 64-65	-6.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 30	vsIUIN	W 85-76	-10.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 161
Feb 4	@PFW	W 90-61	+2.5	W +31.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 7	vsRMU	L 66-72	-3.5	L −9.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 12	@OAK	W 86-82	+3.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 15	@DETM	L 70-76	-4.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 18	vsCLE	W 106-82	-11.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 188
Feb 22	vsNKU	W 64-58	-2.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 122
Feb 25	@MILW	L 65-78	-1.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 143
Feb 28	@GB	L 63-85	+1.5	L −20.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 4	@RMU	L 53-68	+3.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−0.5

GCU

W 90-81

+24.5

SBU

L 80-84

+5.5

TOL

L 75-92

−15.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−11.5

GASO

W 67-61

+4.5

CHST

W 87-64

+8.5

WRST

W 69-68

−2.5

IUIN

W 78-55

+16.5

RMU

L 77-80

−0.5

UPST

W 74-65

+2.5

DETM

L 68-73

−14.5

OAK

L 83-85

−3.5

NKU

L 79-94

−10.5

PFW

L 69-71

−6.5

WRST

L 83-93

−5.5

CLE

L 78-80

−10.5

W 88-81

−0.5

MILW

L 64-65

−7.5

IUIN

W 85-76

−1.5

PFW

W 90-61

+31.5

RMU

L 66-72

−9.5

OAK

W 86-82

+7.5

DETM

L 70-76

−10.5

CLE

W 106-82

+12.5

NKU

W 64-58

+3.5

MILW

L 65-78

−14.5

L 63-85

−20.5

RMU

L 53-68

−11.5

covered 10didn’t cover 19avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−12.5

GCU

W 90-81

+18.5

SBU

L 80-84

+17.5

TOL

L 75-92

+6.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−22.5

GASO

W 67-61

−35.5

CHST

W 87-64

+4.5

WRST

W 69-68

−7.5

IUIN

W 78-55

−38.5

RMU

L 77-80

+16.5

UPST

W 74-65

−2.5

DETM

L 68-73

−5.5

OAK

L 83-85

+10.5

NKU

L 79-94

+26.5

PFW

L 69-71

−5.5

WRST

L 83-93

+34.5

CLE

L 78-80

+5.5

W 88-81

+29.5

MILW

L 64-65

−22.5

IUIN

W 85-76

+7.5

PFW

W 90-61

+3.5

RMU

L 66-72

−5.5

OAK

W 86-82

+12.5

DETM

L 70-76

−5.5

CLE

W 106-82

+30.5

NKU

W 64-58

−30.5

MILW

L 65-78

−4.5

L 63-85

+6.5

RMU

L 53-68

−22.5

over 15under 14avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

South Carolina

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W W W W L L W L W W L W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L L W W L W L L W L W L W L W L L W W L L L W L W W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1650%

O O O U O O U O U U U O O U O U O U O O U O O U U U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNCAT	W 91-72	-22.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 9	vsUSM	W 83-79	-17.5	L −13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 12	vsPRES	W 81-61	-16.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 18	vsRAD	W 87-58	-10.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsBTLR	L 72-79	+3.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsNU	L 77-79	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsCHSO	W 74-62	-17.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsVT	L 83-86	-2.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 169
Dec 6	vsSTET	W 82-51	-22.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 13	vsCIT	W 71-55	-22.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 16	@CLEM	L 61-68	+12.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 129
Dec 22	vsSCST	W 95-70	-31.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	vsUALB	W 96-67	-19.5	W +9.5	148.5	O 163
Jan 3	vsVAN	L 71-83	+9.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 154
Jan 6	@LSU	W 78-68	+7.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 10	vsUGA	L 70-75	+4.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 145
Jan 14	@ARK	L 74-108	+12.5	L −21.5	155.5	O 182
Jan 17	@AUB	L 67-71	+13.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 20	vsOU	W 85-76	+2.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 24	@TA&M	L 69-92	+10.5	L −12.5	155.5	O 161
Jan 28	vsFLA	L 48-95	+13.5	L −33.5	151.5	U 143
Jan 31	vsLSU	L 87-92	+2.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 3	@TEX	L 75-84	+13.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 159
Feb 7	vsMIZ	L 59-78	+3.5	L −15.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	@ALA	L 75-89	+17.5	W +3.5	170.5	U 164
Feb 17	@FLA	L 62-76	+23.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 138
Feb 21	vsMSST	W 97-89	+1.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 186
Feb 24	vsUK	L 63-72	+7.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 135
Feb 28	@UGA	L 68-87	+12.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 155
Mar 3	vsTENN	L 59-78	+10.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 7	@MISS	W 64-61	+7.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 125
Mar 11	vsOU	L 74-86	+7.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

−3.5

USM

W 83-79

−13.5

PRES

W 81-61

+3.5

RAD

W 87-58

+18.5

BTLR

L 72-79

−3.5

L 77-79

+2.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−5.5

L 83-86

−5.5

STET

W 82-51

+8.5

CIT

W 71-55

−6.5

CLEM

L 61-68

+5.5

SCST

W 95-70

−6.5

UALB

W 96-67

+9.5

VAN

L 71-83

−2.5

LSU

W 78-68

+17.5

UGA

L 70-75

−0.5

ARK

L 74-108

−21.5

AUB

L 67-71

+9.5

W 85-76

+11.5

TA&M

L 69-92

−12.5

FLA

L 48-95

−33.5

LSU

L 87-92

−2.5

TEX

L 75-84

+4.5

MIZ

L 59-78

−15.5

ALA

L 75-89

+3.5

FLA

L 62-76

+9.5

MSST

W 97-89

+9.5

L 63-72

−1.5

UGA

L 68-87

−6.5

TENN

L 59-78

−8.5

MISS

W 64-61

+10.5

L 74-86

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

+19.5

USM

W 83-79

+14.5

PRES

W 81-61

+4.5

RAD

W 87-58

−8.5

BTLR

L 72-79

+0.5

L 77-79

+9.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−14.5

L 83-86

+19.5

STET

W 82-51

−9.5

CIT

W 71-55

−15.5

CLEM

L 61-68

−13.5

SCST

W 95-70

+15.5

UALB

W 96-67

+14.5

VAN

L 71-83

−1.5

LSU

W 78-68

+0.5

UGA

L 70-75

−18.5

ARK

L 74-108

+26.5

AUB

L 67-71

−14.5

W 85-76

+10.5

TA&M

L 69-92

+5.5

FLA

L 48-95

−8.5

LSU

L 87-92

+31.5

TEX

L 75-84

+9.5

MIZ

L 59-78

−10.5

ALA

L 75-89

−6.5

FLA

L 62-76

−18.5

MSST

W 97-89

+34.5

L 63-72

−16.5

UGA

L 68-87

−3.5

TENN

L 59-78

−4.5

MISS

W 64-61

−22.5

L 74-86

+10.5

over 16under 16avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: Youngstown St 0, South Carolina 4, even 1

Youngstown StBetterSouth Carolina

G L. Holmstrom TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 30

SCBig

G S. Blakeney TR14.3 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 71

G J. Haynes3.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

SCBig

G K. Mincy TR14.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.9 ast Score 81

G J. Tyler TR4.3 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 18

SCSmall

F J. Necas TR6.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 46

G J. Nwankwo TR3 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28

Even

F C. Heide TR5.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

F J. Coleman TR3.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5

SCSmall

F A. Bieliauskas TR4.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 36

Youngstown StBetterSouth Carolina

YSU offense267th of 366 · -8.1

SCBig

SC defense53rd of 366 · +1.6

YSU defense264th of 366 · -6.8

SCBig

SC offense98th of 366 · -0.8

Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players

SCBig

Backcourt+2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-2.0 · 3 players

Bench-2.0 · 2 players

SCSmall

Bench-0.7 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestYSU betterSC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Youngstown St

Guards

L. Holmstrom27 min · TRJ. Haynes15 minJ. Tyler13 min · TRJ. Nwankwo12 min · TRD. Aekins7 min · TRJ. LivingstonNew

Forwards

J. Coleman13 min · TRJ. Moupadele12 min · TRL. LokhmanchukNewE. Summers-LivingstonNew

Centers

K. AmoakoNew

South Carolina

Guards

S. Blakeney34 min · TRK. Mincy34 min · TRG. Polk13 minD. Hannah13 min · TRE. Sparkman4 minM. JohnsonNew

Forwards

J. Necas25 min · TRC. Heide23 min · TRA. Bieliauskas20 min · TRH. Assemian10 minH. LopezNewJ. FernandezNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

YSU75.1 #162

SC74.9 #165

Points per possession

YSU1.09 #160

SC1.09 #161

Pace (possessions)

YSU68.9 #188

SC68.8 #195

Shooting

Effective FG%

YSU53.6 #76

SC50.3 #226

3-point %

YSU33.8 #184

SC31.1 #317

3-point attempt rate

YSU49.4 #17

SC44.4 #80

Free throw rate

YSU31.4 #272

SC36.7 #137

Possessions

Turnover rate

YSU18.8 #314

SC14.4 #39

Offensive rebound rate

YSU30.4 #182

SC27.2 #289

Assists per game

YSU14.0 #144

SC13.3 #190

Defense

Points allowed

YSU74.9 #185

SC76.5 #228

Points allowed per possession

YSU1.09 #190

SC1.11 #252

Opponent effective FG%

YSU52.3 #228

SC51.6 #188

Opponent 3-point %

YSU35.5 #280

SC31.8 #56

Turnovers forced

YSU17.8 #106

SC14.6 #314

Defensive rebound rate

YSU69.3 #191

SC67.9 #263

Steals per game

YSU6.7 #151

SC5.5 #295

Blocks per game

YSU3.5 #146

SC2.4 #317

YSU		SC
Scoring
75.1 #162	Points per game	74.9 #165
1.09 #160	Points per possession	1.09 #161
68.9 #188	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #195
Shooting
53.6 #76	Effective FG%	50.3 #226
33.8 #184	3-point %	31.1 #317
49.4 #17	3-point attempt rate	44.4 #80
31.4 #272	Free throw rate	36.7 #137
Possessions
18.8 #314	Turnover rate	14.4 #39
30.4 #182	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #289
14.0 #144	Assists per game	13.3 #190
Defense
74.9 #185	Points allowed	76.5 #228
1.09 #190	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #252
52.3 #228	Opponent effective FG%	51.6 #188
35.5 #280	Opponent 3-point %	31.8 #56
17.8 #106	Turnovers forced	14.6 #314
69.3 #191	Defensive rebound rate	67.9 #263
6.7 #151	Steals per game	5.5 #295
3.5 #146	Blocks per game	2.4 #317

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Youngstown St

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Robert Morris53–68
L@ Green Bay63–85
L@ Milwaukee65–78
Wvs N Kentucky64–58
Wvs Cleveland St106–82

A week or more of rest.

South Carolina

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oklahoma74–86
W@ Ole Miss64–61
Lvs Tennessee59–78
L@ Georgia68–87
Lvs Kentucky63–72

A week or more of rest.

Youngstown State Penguins at South Carolina Gamecocks

What could decide it: SC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Youngstown St

South Carolina

South Carolina has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Youngstown St

South Carolina