South Carolina Upstate Spartans at Davidson Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 4:00 PM ETJohn M. Belk Arena · at Davidson

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SC Upstate and Davidson
UPST	This season	DAV
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAV 81–63 · win probability DAV 94%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 143.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAV has more of the edges

UPST 0, DAV 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DAVBig

UPST offense vs DAV defense

Offense 299th of 366 against a defense 84th, on the model’s ratings

DAVBig

Three-pointers

UPST hits 31.4% and allows 35.6%; DAV hits 35.4% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 35.6% and 44.5% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

UPST has played the 281st-hardest schedule, DAV the 91st. A record against a soft schedule means less

DAVBig

DAV offense vs UPST defense

Offense 149th of 366 against a defense 338th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: UPST plays 70.5 a game (97th fastest), DAV 65.0 (347th). Faster games mean more points

DAVSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UPST 18.1%, DAV 15.8%. Forced: UPST 16.5%, DAV 17.5%

DAVSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UPST 48.3 and allows 51.0; DAV 52.6 and allows 50.6

DAVSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UPST 9%, DAV 49%. Transfers in: UPST 3, DAV 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

DAVSmall

Home court

DAV at home. This season: DAV 0-0 at home, UPST 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UPST 32.8, DAV 31.0. Allowed: UPST 36.0, DAV 37.1

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UPST 29.2%, DAV 28.1%. Defensive: UPST 68.6%, DAV 70.0%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	DAV -17.4	—
Total	—	143.6	—
Projected score	—	UPST 63.1 · DAV 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DAV -10.2	—
1H total	67.2	—
1H projected score	UPST 28.5 · DAV 38.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UPST WWLLL	13-16	45%	7-9	—
DAV LWLLW	14-18	44%	5-11	—

Venue/role: UPST away; DAV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UPST UOUUU	14-15	48%	10-19
DAV OUUUO	14-18	44%	18-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UPST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
DAV	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SC Upstate

No more games listed yet.

Davidson

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UPST 0–1 DAVDAV leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UPST 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2023-24	UPST 59 @ DAV 62	DAV -15.5	UPST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SC Upstate

29 games played

Straight up

10-19

34% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1934%

L W L L L W L W W L W L L L L W L L L W L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

W W W L L W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W L W L L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

O U U O U O U O U U O U U O U O O O U U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CBU	L 75-87	+14.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 5	@FRES	W 67-66	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 15	@UNCW	L 60-73	+14.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 19	vsTNTC	L 84-88	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 21	@WGA	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsNCCU	W 82-67	-7.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 149
Nov 29	@NEB	L 63-72	+25.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsCCU	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	vsWCU	W 78-67	-2.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Dec 13	@UNC	L 62-80	+29.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 142
Dec 16	@SCST	W 78-72	-10.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 20	@YSU	L 65-74	+6.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 31	vsRAD	L 69-76	-1.5	L −8.5	158.5	U 145
Jan 3	@PRES	L 77-86	+1.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsWIN	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	157.5	U 121
Jan 14	@CHSO	W 86-81	+6.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 167
Jan 17	@HPU	L 69-89	+16.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsUNCA	L 69-83	-1.5	L −15.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 23	@GWEB	L 65-67	-9.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 132
Jan 29	vsLONG	W 65-60	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 125
Feb 4	@UNCA	L 67-76	+6.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 143
Feb 7	vsCHSO	W 100-94	+1.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 194
Feb 12	vsHPU	L 70-95	+14.5	L −10.5	154.5	O 165
Feb 14	@LONG	L 75-82	+6.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 157
Feb 19	@WIN	L 64-68	+13.5	W +9.5	158.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsPRES	W 76-74	+1.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 26	@RAD	L 59-71	+7.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 130
Feb 28	vsGWEB	W 71-61	-11.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 132
Mar 4	vsGWEB	L 64-65	-10.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+2.5

FRES

W 67-66

+10.5

UNCW

L 60-73

+1.5

TNTC

L 84-88

−6.5

WGA

L 64-72

−5.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+7.5

NEB

L 63-72

+16.5

CCU

W 85-78

+4.5

WCU

W 78-67

+8.5

UNC

L 62-80

+11.5

SCST

W 78-72

−4.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−8.5

PRES

L 77-86

−7.5

WIN

L 50-71

−15.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

−3.5

UNCA

L 69-83

−15.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−11.5

LONG

W 65-60

+6.5

UNCA

L 67-76

−2.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+7.5

HPU

L 70-95

−10.5

LONG

L 75-82

−0.5

WIN

L 64-68

+9.5

PRES

W 76-74

+3.5

RAD

L 59-71

−4.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−1.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−11.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+9.5

FRES

W 67-66

−31.5

UNCW

L 60-73

−22.5

TNTC

L 84-88

+21.5

WGA

L 64-72

−17.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+0.5

NEB

L 63-72

−22.5

CCU

W 85-78

+18.5

WCU

W 78-67

−4.5

UNC

L 62-80

−9.5

SCST

W 78-72

+2.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−13.5

PRES

L 77-86

+25.5

WIN

L 50-71

−36.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

+5.5

UNCA

L 69-83

+6.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−21.5

LONG

W 65-60

−22.5

UNCA

L 67-76

+3.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+43.5

HPU

L 70-95

+10.5

LONG

L 75-82

+9.5

WIN

L 64-68

−26.5

PRES

W 76-74

+8.5

RAD

L 59-71

−22.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−14.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−14.5

over 14under 15avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Davidson

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

W W W W L W W L W L L L W W L W W L L W L W L W L W W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W L W L W L L W L L L W W L W W L L W L W L L L W L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

O U O U O O O U U U O O U O U O U U U U O O U U U U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsWSU	W 85-69	-4.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 11	@CLT	W 62-55	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 117
Nov 15	vsBGSU	W 91-87	-4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 178
Nov 21	vsBC	W 59-49	+1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 108
Nov 23	vsUSU	L 60-94	+9.5	L −24.5	147.5	O 154
Nov 28	vsNCAT	W 90-74	-13.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 4	vsCIT	W 79-63	-18.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 7	vsSMC	L 61-70	+8.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 131
Dec 13	vsMERC	W 80-47	-11.5	W +21.5	132.5	U 127
Dec 18	vsTEM	L 63-68	-5.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 22	@KU	L 61-90	+14.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 151
Dec 30	vsDUQ	L 83-89	-2.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 172
Jan 3	@JOES	W 62-56	-1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 118
Jan 7	@LUC	W 79-64	-1.5	W +13.5	136.5	O 143
Jan 10	vsURI	L 45-70	-2.5	L −27.5	134.5	U 115
Jan 14	@GW	W 84-79	+9.5	W +14.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 21	vsFOR	W 68-63	-4.5	W +0.5	135.5	U 131
Jan 24	vsVCU	L 69-75	+5.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 28	@GMU	L 52-60	+6.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 112
Jan 31	@RICH	W 79-54	+1.5	W +26.5	140.5	U 133
Feb 3	vsSLU	L 82-91	+8.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 173
Feb 6	vsLUC	W 84-64	-9.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 148
Feb 15	@DAY	L 59-70	+5.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 18	vsRICH	W 65-63	-5.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 128
Feb 21	@FOR	L 59-63	-1.5	L −5.5	131.5	U 122
Feb 25	@DUQ	W 67-56	+3.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 123
Mar 1	vsLAS	W 71-64	-10.5	L −3.5	133.5	O 135
Mar 4	vsJOES	L 67-70	-1.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 137
Mar 7	@SBU	W 68-63	+4.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 12	vsLUC	W 64-59	-5.5	L −0.5	132.5	U 123
Mar 13	vsJOES	L 58-70	+2.5	L −9.5	133.5	U 128
Mar 17	@OKST	L 80-84	+6.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSU

W 85-69

+11.5

CLT

W 62-55

+8.5

BGSU

W 91-87

−0.5

W 59-49

+11.5

USU

L 60-94

−24.5

NCAT

W 90-74

+2.5

CIT

W 79-63

−2.5

SMC

L 61-70

−0.5

MERC

W 80-47

+21.5

TEM

L 63-68

−10.5

L 61-90

−14.5

DUQ

L 83-89

−8.5

JOES

W 62-56

+4.5

LUC

W 79-64

+13.5

URI

L 45-70

−27.5

W 84-79

+14.5

FOR

W 68-63

+0.5

VCU

L 69-75

−0.5

GMU

L 52-60

−1.5

RICH

W 79-54

+26.5

SLU

L 82-91

−0.5

LUC

W 84-64

+10.5

DAY

L 59-70

−5.5

RICH

W 65-63

−3.5

FOR

L 59-63

−5.5

DUQ

W 67-56

+14.5

LAS

W 71-64

−3.5

JOES

L 67-70

−4.5

SBU

W 68-63

+9.5

LUC

W 64-59

−0.5

JOES

L 58-70

−9.5

OKST

L 80-84

+2.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSU

W 85-69

+0.5

CLT

W 62-55

−26.5

BGSU

W 91-87

+33.5

W 59-49

−32.5

USU

L 60-94

+6.5

NCAT

W 90-74

+18.5

CIT

W 79-63

+4.5

SMC

L 61-70

−6.5

MERC

W 80-47

−5.5

TEM

L 63-68

−10.5

L 61-90

+11.5

DUQ

L 83-89

+21.5

JOES

W 62-56

−21.5

LUC

W 79-64

+6.5

URI

L 45-70

−19.5

W 84-79

+12.5

FOR

W 68-63

−4.5

VCU

L 69-75

−4.5

GMU

L 52-60

−22.5

RICH

W 79-54

−7.5

SLU

L 82-91

+21.5

LUC

W 84-64

+7.5

DAY

L 59-70

−11.5

RICH

W 65-63

−13.5

FOR

L 59-63

−9.5

DUQ

W 67-56

−19.5

LAS

W 71-64

+1.5

JOES

L 67-70

+0.5

SBU

W 68-63

−10.5

LUC

W 64-59

−9.5

JOES

L 58-70

−5.5

OKST

L 80-84

+9.5

over 14under 18avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: SC Upstate 1, Davidson 1, even 3

SC UpstateBetterDavidson

G C. Rich0 pts · 0 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

No call

G N. Janowski TR16.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81

F M. Webb TR9.9 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 56

UPSTSmall

G S. Brown7.9 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 33

F D. Tubek TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G N. Coval6.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49

F Z. Johnson TR0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. Scovens11.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

C C. Collier1.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 10

DAVSmall

C I. Platteeuw3.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 43

SC UpstateBetterDavidson

UPST offense299th of 366 · -9.2

DAVBig

DAV defense84th of 366 · +0.0

UPST defense338th of 366 · -8.9

DAVBig

DAV offense149th of 366 · -4.5

Backcourt-0.1 · 1 player

Even

Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.0 · 4 players

DAVBig

Frontcourt+2.2 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestUPST betterDAV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SC Upstate

Guards

C. Rich5 minA. Allen-JohnsonNewW. TessemaNewR. NaugleNewJ. PattersonNewN. MvulaNew

Forwards

M. Webb27 min · TRD. Tubek7 min · TRZ. Johnson2 min · TRK. PayneNewD. EdmondNewA. PerottiNew

Centers

C. Collier14 min

Davidson

Guards

N. Janowski32 min · TRS. Brown24 minN. Coval19 minP. Kavu1 minJ. CarterNewE. HeinonenNew

Forwards

J. Scovens25 minJ. Roberts12 minJ. Keith9 min · TRJ. Nowland1 minQ. BashiruNewT. StoiberNew

Centers

I. Platteeuw15 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UPST71.0 #265

DAV69.9 #289

Points per possession

UPST1.00 #324

DAV1.08 #189

Pace (possessions)

UPST70.5 #97

DAV65.0 #347

Shooting

Effective FG%

UPST48.3 #307

DAV52.6 #121

3-point %

UPST31.4 #308

DAV35.4 #92

3-point attempt rate

UPST35.6 #256

DAV44.5 #79

Free throw rate

UPST32.8 #239

DAV31.0 #283

Possessions

Turnover rate

UPST18.1 #274

DAV15.8 #124

Offensive rebound rate

UPST29.2 #231

DAV28.1 #265

Assists per game

UPST11.7 #304

DAV13.4 #184

Defense

Points allowed

UPST75.7 #210

DAV68.5 #40

Points allowed per possession

UPST1.08 #170

DAV1.05 #94

Opponent effective FG%

UPST51.0 #156

DAV50.6 #132

Opponent 3-point %

UPST35.6 #289

DAV32.6 #92

Turnovers forced

UPST16.5 #185

DAV17.5 #121

Defensive rebound rate

UPST68.6 #224

DAV70.0 #157

Steals per game

UPST6.1 #220

DAV6.4 #189

Blocks per game

UPST4.7 #24

DAV4.1 #66

UPST		DAV
Scoring
71.0 #265	Points per game	69.9 #289
1.00 #324	Points per possession	1.08 #189
70.5 #97	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #347
Shooting
48.3 #307	Effective FG%	52.6 #121
31.4 #308	3-point %	35.4 #92
35.6 #256	3-point attempt rate	44.5 #79
32.8 #239	Free throw rate	31.0 #283
Possessions
18.1 #274	Turnover rate	15.8 #124
29.2 #231	Offensive rebound rate	28.1 #265
11.7 #304	Assists per game	13.4 #184
Defense
75.7 #210	Points allowed	68.5 #40
1.08 #170	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #94
51.0 #156	Opponent effective FG%	50.6 #132
35.6 #289	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #92
16.5 #185	Turnovers forced	17.5 #121
68.6 #224	Defensive rebound rate	70.0 #157
6.1 #220	Steals per game	6.4 #189
4.7 #24	Blocks per game	4.1 #66

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SC Upstate

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gardner-Webb64–65
Wvs Gardner-Webb71–61
L@ Radford59–71
Wvs Presbyterian76–74
L@ Winthrop64–68

A week or more of rest.

Davidson

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Oklahoma St80–84
Lvs Saint Joseph's58–70
Wvs Loyola Chicago64–59
W@ St Bonaventure68–63
Lvs Saint Joseph's67–70

A week or more of rest.

South Carolina Upstate Spartans at Davidson Wildcats

What could decide it: DAV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SC Upstate

Davidson

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SC Upstate

Davidson