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  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. YALE vs UCSB
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Yale Bulldogs vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Lee's Family Forum · Neutral site
#126YALEYale
vs
#134UCSBSanta Barbara
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
YALEThis seasonUCSB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCSB 74–74 · win probability UCSB 50%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: YALE has more of the edges

YALE 2, UCSB 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
YALEBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: YALE 35.1, UCSB 36.8. Allowed: YALE 26.8, UCSB 42.4
YALEBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: YALE 14.0%, UCSB 18.8%. Forced: YALE 16.2%, UCSB 16.8%
Context
Schedule so far
YALE has played the 141st-hardest schedule, UCSB the 203rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: YALE plays 66.4 a game (301st fastest), UCSB 68.2 (218th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: YALE 55.6 and allows 51.6; UCSB 54.7 and allows 52.6
Even
Three-pointers
YALE hits 39.4% and allows 35.0%; UCSB hits 37.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 36.1% and 44.1% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: YALE 42%, UCSB 53%. Transfers in: YALE 0, UCSB 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: YALE 34.2%, UCSB 31.0%. Defensive: YALE 70.3%, UCSB 74.5%
Even
UCSB offense vs YALE defense
Offense 150th of 366 against a defense 136th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
YALE offense vs UCSB defense
Offense 125th of 366 against a defense 128th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—YALE -0.1—
Total—147.8—
Projected score—YALE 73.9 · UCSB 73.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadYALE -0.2—
1H total69.1—
1H projected scoreYALE 34.6 · UCSB 34.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Yale 1, Santa Barbara 1, even 3
YaleBetterSanta Barbara
G T. Mullin11.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 63
Even
G V. Vartiainen TR12.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 52
G J. Brathwaite6.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 35
UCSBBig
G M. Little12.7 pts · 5.6 reb · 4.8 ast Score 91
G C. Wallace1.2 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Shaw11.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
F R. Fox9.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 76
YALESmall
G R. Smith TR6.6 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 43
F J. Sullivan1.3 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
C E. Dibami TR9.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 45
YaleBetterSanta Barbara
YALE offense125th of 366 · -3.3
Even
UCSB defense128th of 366 · -2.3
YALE defense136th of 366 · -2.8
Even
UCSB offense150th of 366 · -4.5
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
UCSBSmall
Backcourt+1.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
YALESmall
Bench-3.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestYALE betterUCSB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Yale
Guards
T. Mullin28 minJ. Brathwaite19 minC. Wallace4 minJ. Basima3 minA. Loving3 minJ. Tsai2 min
Forwards
R. Fox18 minJ. Sullivan5 minD. Ogunyemi3 minC. MayNewT. WinklerNewC. BolteNew
Centers
J. OwareNew
Santa Barbara
Guards
V. Vartiainen31 min · TRM. Little30 minC. Shaw29 minR. Smith28 min · TRM. McGhee21 minL. Zuffelato4 min
Forwards
A. Chol24 min · TRM. Simcoe9 minD. Duru7 min · TRK. Keat Tong6 minK. Haughy2 minJ. Simcoe2 min
Centers
E. Dibami29 min · TRM. John WuolNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
YALEUCSB
Scoring
80.1 #64Points per game76.7 #127
1.21 #10Points per possession1.13 #87
66.4 #301Pace (possessions)68.2 #218
Shooting
55.6 #26Effective FG%54.7 #47
39.4 #33-point %37.4 #23
36.1 #2473-point attempt rate44.1 #87
35.1 #172Free throw rate36.8 #134
Possessions
14.0 #22Turnover rate18.8 #312
34.2 #62Offensive rebound rate31.0 #165
15.8 #53Assists per game14.1 #140
Defense
71.8 #102Points allowed73.7 #148
1.08 #166Points allowed per possession1.08 #156
51.6 #192Opponent effective FG%52.6 #244
35.0 #250Opponent 3-point %33.9 #177
16.2 #207Turnovers forced16.8 #170
70.3 #147Defensive rebound rate74.5 #14
5.3 #314Steals per game6.2 #216
3.2 #193Blocks per game2.3 #322
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Yale

22-7 in 2025-26 overall · 12-4 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNC Wilmington67–68
  • Lvs Penn84–88
  • Wvs Cornell88–76
  • Wvs Princeton78–53
  • W@ Columbia60–54

A week or more of rest.

Santa Barbara

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UC Davis73–79
  • Lvs UC San Diego63–64
  • L@ UC Irvine60–64
  • Wvs UC Riverside70–59
  • L@ Hawai'i75–78

A week or more of rest.