Yale Bulldogs at Brown Bears: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 5, 7:00 PM ETPizzitola Sports Center · at Brown · Conference game

#126YALEYale70▲ winner

Final

#156BRWNBrown53final

Closing lineYALE -8.5✓ YALE covered by 8.5

Closing total142.5Under by 19.5

Season records: Yale and Brown
YALE	This season	BRWN
9-2	Record	4-7
5-6	ATS	7-4
8-3	O/U	5-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: YALE 79–69 BRWN · ✓ YALE (79%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
YALE	29	41	70
BRWN	30	23	53

1st half: YALE 29, BRWN 30 (BRWN by 1). The model had YALE by 5.7 and a total of 69.2 (actual 59).

Team stats

YALE		BRWN
26-54 48%	Field goals	20-65 31%
6-17 35%	3-pointers	7-30 23%
12-20 60%	Free throws	6-10 60%
44 9 off	Rebounds	36 13 off
16	Assists	14
5	Steals	8
5	Blocks	5
15	Turnovers	13
13	Fouls	18
32	Points in paint	24
10	Fast-break points	7

Players

YALE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Townsend F	36	10	10	5	2-10	0-3
Trevor Mullin G	30	9	2	4	4-8	1-4
Isaac Celiscar F	29	8	4	3	2-7	1-2
Samson Aletan C	29	13	9	2	5-7	0-0
Casey Simmons G	22	7	9	0	3-5	1-1
Bench
Riley Fox F	22	18	3	0	8-11	2-3
Jordan Brathwaite G	18	2	2	0	1-4	0-3
Devon Arlington G	14	3	3	2	1-2	1-1

Did not play: Jack Sullivan, Daniel Ogunyemi, Alvin Loving, Jacob Tsai, Courtney Wallace, Jeannot Basima

BRWN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Landon Lewis F	34	16	8	1	7-12	0-0
Jeremiah Jenkins G	32	3	3	10	1-10	1-6
N'famara Dabo F	17	3	2	0	1-3	0-0
Isaiah Langham G	15	3	4	0	1-8	0-5
Luke Paragon G	12	8	2	0	3-5	2-4
Bench
Adrian Uchidiuno G	31	14	3	1	4-11	4-10
Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson G	22	2	2	2	1-3	0-0
David Rochester G	22	2	7	0	1-9	0-3
Charlie O'Sullivan F	15	2	3	0	1-4	0-2

Did not play: Brady Loughlin, Jonah Drezner, Jerrell Barron Jr., Wyatt DeGraaf, AJ Lesburt Jr., Drew Kania

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	YALE -8.5	YALE -9.4	YALE +0.9	W YALE covered
Total	142.5	147.7	Over 5.2	L Under
Projected score	—	YALE 78.5 · BRWN 69.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	YALE -5.7	BRWN -1.0
1H total	69.2	59
1H projected score	YALE 37.5 · BRWN 31.7	YALE 29 · BRWN 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
YALE WLWLL	5-6	45%	2-2	4-5
BRWN WWWWW	7-4	64%	3-2	3-3

Venue/role: YALE away, as favorite; BRWN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
YALE OOUOO	8-3	73%	9-2
BRWN UUUOO	5-6	45%	4-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
YALE	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
BRWN	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

YALE 8–1 BRWNYALE leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · YALE has won the last 3 meetings · YALE 6-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2024-25	YALE 70 @ BRWN 61	BRWN +8.5	YALE W
Jan 11, 2024-25	BRWN 58 @ YALE 79	YALE -9.5	YALE W
Mar 17, 2023-24	BRWN 61 vs YALE 62	YALE -7.5	BRWN W
Mar 9, 2023-24	BRWN 84 @ YALE 81	YALE -11.5	BRWN W
Jan 9, 2023-24	YALE 80 @ BRWN 70	BRWN +6.5	YALE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Yale

11 games played

Straight up

9-2

82% wins

Against the spread

5-6

45% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-3

73% overs · avg +8.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-282%

W W W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-645%

W W L L L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-373%

O O O O U U O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@NAVY	W 97-68	-5.5	W +23.5	147.5	O 165
Nov 11	@QUIN	W 97-60	-6.5	W +30.5	156.5	O 157
Nov 15	vsSTBK	W 86-79	-20.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 18	vsURI	L 77-86	-8.5	L −17.5	153.5	O 163
Nov 21	vsGB	W 73-67	-17.5	L −11.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 23	vsCOFC	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 137
Nov 24	vsAKR	W 97-94	+1.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 191
Nov 30	@UVM	W 77-74	-6.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 151
Dec 7	vsUIC	W 80-66	-12.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 146
Dec 10	vsUALB	W 93-82	-17.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 175
Dec 29	@ALA	L 78-102	+15.5	L −8.5	171.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAVY

W 97-68

+23.5

QUIN

W 97-60

+30.5

STBK

W 86-79

−13.5

URI

L 77-86

−17.5

W 73-67

−11.5

COFC

W 74-63

+4.5

AKR

W 97-94

+4.5

UVM

W 77-74

−3.5

UIC

W 80-66

+1.5

UALB

W 93-82

−6.5

ALA

L 78-102

−8.5

covered 5didn’t cover 6avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAVY

W 97-68

+17.5

QUIN

W 97-60

+0.5

STBK

W 86-79

+14.5

URI

L 77-86

+9.5

W 73-67

−8.5

COFC

W 74-63

−11.5

AKR

W 97-94

+34.5

UVM

W 77-74

+3.5

UIC

W 80-66

−2.5

UALB

W 93-82

+29.5

ALA

L 78-102

+8.5

over 8under 3avg +8.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Brown

11 games played

Straight up

4-7

36% wins

Against the spread

7-4

64% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-6

45% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-736%

L L L L W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-464%

L W L L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-645%

U O O U U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIE	L 46-62	+3.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 9	vsUVM	L 84-89	+5.5	W +0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 12	@BU	L 77-90	+3.5	L −9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 14	vsHAMP	L 63-72	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 18	vsHC	W 68-49	-2.5	W +16.5	141.5	U 117
Nov 20	@STBK	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 150
Nov 23	@ME	W 58-53	-1.5	W +3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 26	@UNH	W 59-47	-5.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 106
Dec 2	@URI	L 56-66	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 122
Dec 5	vsBRY	W 75-56	-6.5	W +12.5	130.5	O 131
Dec 9	@PROV	L 79-86	+19.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−12.5

UVM

L 84-89

+0.5

L 77-90

−9.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−10.5

W 68-49

+16.5

STBK

L 70-80

−6.5

W 58-53

+3.5

UNH

W 59-47

+6.5

URI

L 56-66

+3.5

BRY

W 75-56

+12.5

PROV

L 79-86

+12.5

covered 7didn’t cover 4avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−34.5

UVM

L 84-89

+41.5

L 77-90

+37.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−4.5

W 68-49

−24.5

STBK

L 70-80

+13.5

W 58-53

−16.5

UNH

W 59-47

−30.5

URI

L 56-66

−16.5

BRY

W 75-56

+0.5

PROV

L 79-86

+19.5

over 5under 6avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Yale Bulldogs at Brown Bears

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Yale

Brown

Yale

Brown