Oregon Ducks at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 5, 7:00 PM ETJersey Mike’s Arena · at Rutgers · Conference game

#57OREOregon85final

Final

#62RUTGRutgers88▲ winner

Closing lineORE -4.5✓ RUTG covered by 7.5

Closing total139.5Over by 33.5

Season records: Oregon and Rutgers
ORE	This season	RUTG
8-6	Record	7-7
5-9	ATS	4-10
8-6	O/U	7-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ORE 75–70 RUTG · ✗ ORE (68%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
ORE	45	31	9	85
RUTG	37	39	12	88

1st half: ORE 45, RUTG 37 (ORE by 8). The model had ORE by 3.3 and a total of 67.8 (actual 82).

Team stats

ORE		RUTG
30-66 45%	Field goals	26-60 43%
13-32 41%	3-pointers	6-18 33%
12-16 75%	Free throws	30-34 88%
43 16 off	Rebounds	32 10 off
19	Assists	10
5	Steals	10
2	Blocks	2
17	Turnovers	7
22	Fouls	18
32	Points in paint	26
10	Fast-break points	19

Players

ORE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kwame Evans Jr. F	41	14	13	2	4-9	1-4
Wei Lin G	33	23	1	5	8-14	6-12
Nate Bittle C	30	28	8	2	11-21	3-8
Dez Lindsay F	25	3	4	2	1-5	0-1
Takai Simpkins G	24	7	3	3	2-7	1-3
Bench
Devon Pryor G	27	2	4	3	1-4	0-2
Sean Stewart F	15	2	4	0	1-3	0-0
Jamari Phillips G	14	3	1	1	1-2	1-1
Drew Carter G	12	3	3	1	1-1	1-1
Ege Demir C	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Rian Gonzales, JJ Frakes, Efe Vatan, Jackson Shelstad, Luke Johnson, Oleksandr Kobzystyi, Miles Stewart

RUTG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jamichael Davis G	31	13	5	3	3-9	2-4
Harun Zrno G	24	8	4	0	2-7	2-5
Emmanuel Ogbole C	18	0	3	0	0-1	0-0
Kaden Powers G	17	3	3	1	1-6	1-3
Dylan Grant F	17	6	1	0	0-4	0-3
Bench
Darren Buchanan Jr. G	30	13	3	2	6-7	1-1
Tariq Francis G	30	30	4	4	10-16	0-1
Bryce Ruglass Dortch F	27	0	5	0	0-2	0-0
Lino Mark G	26	13	1	0	3-6	0-1
Chris Nwuli F	5	2	1	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Baye Fall, Denis Badalau, Max Fradkin, Gevonte Ware, Dorian Jones

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ORE -4.5	ORE -5.3	ORE +0.8	L RUTG covered
Total	139.5	144.8	Over 5.3	W Over
Projected score	—	ORE 75 · RUTG 69.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ORE -3.3	ORE -8.0
1H total	67.8	82
1H projected score	ORE 35.6 · RUTG 32.3	ORE 45 · RUTG 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE WWWWW	5-9	36%	1-1	4-5
RUTG LLLLW	4-10	29%	2-7	3-4

Venue/role: ORE away, as favorite; RUTG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE OOOUU	8-6	57%	8-6
RUTG OOUUO	7-7	50%	7-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
RUTG	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ORE 1–0 RUTGORE leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ORE 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 16, 2024-25	RUTG 57 @ ORE 75	ORE -7.5	ORE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oregon

14 games played

Straight up

8-6

57% wins

Against the spread

5-9

36% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-6

57% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-657%

W W W W L L L L L W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-936%

L L L L L L L L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-657%

U U O O O O U O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsHAW	W 60-59	-11.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 7	vsRICE	W 67-63	-15.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 12	vsSDST	W 83-69	-16.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 17	vsORST	W 87-75	-13.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 24	vsAUB	L 73-84	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsSDSU	L 80-97	-2.5	L −19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 27	vsCREI	L 66-76	+2.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsUSC	L 77-82	+2.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 6	@UCLA	L 63-74	+8.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 137
Dec 13	vsUCD	W 104-62	-13.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 166
Dec 17	vsPORT	W 94-69	-19.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsGONZ	L 82-91	+12.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 173
Dec 28	vsOMA	W 80-57	-21.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 137
Jan 2	@MD	W 64-54	-1.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−10.5

RICE

W 67-63

−11.5

SDST

W 83-69

−2.5

ORST

W 87-75

−1.5

AUB

L 73-84

−6.5

SDSU

L 80-97

−19.5

CREI

L 66-76

−7.5

USC

L 77-82

−2.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−2.5

UCD

W 104-62

+28.5

PORT

W 94-69

+5.5

GONZ

L 82-91

+3.5

OMA

W 80-57

+1.5

W 64-54

+8.5

covered 5didn’t cover 9avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−25.5

RICE

W 67-63

−15.5

SDST

W 83-69

+6.5

ORST

W 87-75

+20.5

AUB

L 73-84

+1.5

SDSU

L 80-97

+35.5

CREI

L 66-76

−8.5

USC

L 77-82

+4.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−9.5

UCD

W 104-62

+19.5

PORT

W 94-69

+8.5

GONZ

L 82-91

+17.5

OMA

W 80-57

−14.5

W 64-54

−28.5

over 8under 6avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rutgers

14 games played

Straight up

7-7

50% wins

Against the spread

4-10

29% covers · avg −4.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-7

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-750%

W W W W L L L W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-1029%

W L L L L L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-750%

U O O O U O U U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsRID	W 81-53	-18.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 134
Nov 10	vsME	W 72-60	-18.5	L −6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 14	vsLEH	W 84-72	-18.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 156
Nov 18	vsAMER	W 80-71	-16.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 21	vsCCSU	L 54-67	-15.5	L −28.5	137.5	U 121
Nov 24	vsTENN	L 60-85	+14.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 145
Nov 25	vsND	L 63-68	+6.5	W +1.5	140.5	U 131
Nov 27	vsUNLV	W 80-65	+4.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 2	vsPUR	L 65-81	+13.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 6	@MICH	L 60-101	+25.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 161
Dec 13	@HALL	L 59-81	+13.5	L −8.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 20	vsPENN	W 70-69	-11.5	L −10.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsDSU	W 65-50	-20.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 115
Jan 2	vsOSU	L 73-80	+9.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RID

W 81-53

+9.5

W 72-60

−6.5

LEH

W 84-72

−6.5

AMER

W 80-71

−7.5

CCSU

L 54-67

−28.5

TENN

L 60-85

−10.5

L 63-68

+1.5

UNLV

W 80-65

+19.5

PUR

L 65-81

−2.5

MICH

L 60-101

−15.5

HALL

L 59-81

−8.5

PENN

W 70-69

−10.5

DSU

W 65-50

−5.5

OSU

L 73-80

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 10avg −4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RID

W 81-53

−5.5

W 72-60

+1.5

LEH

W 84-72

+19.5

AMER

W 80-71

+7.5

CCSU

L 54-67

−16.5

TENN

L 60-85

+3.5

L 63-68

−9.5

UNLV

W 80-65

−8.5

PUR

L 65-81

−0.5

MICH

L 60-101

+7.5

HALL

L 59-81

+3.5

PENN

W 70-69

−11.5

DSU

W 65-50

−20.5

OSU

L 73-80

+1.5

over 7under 7avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oregon Ducks at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Oregon

Rutgers

Oregon

Rutgers